The art of modelling climate change in time slice integrations: The ICON-ART experience

Climate change is happening in a transient manner – with continuously increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, humans have started a radiative imbalance that leads to rising near-surface temperatures. However, there are good reasons why it makes sense to look at quasi-equilibrium climate change simulations. In such simulations, we approximate climate change by “fixing” the amount of long-lived greenhouse gases and use recurring boundary conditions that are representative of a particular year - past, present or future. With such a setup any climate model should simulate a stable climate (after a spin-up phase) that reveals internal variability and does not show any trends. It is a necessary condition for the validity of the model - if no transience is provided in the boundary conditions – that the model does not drift. With such a model configuration, it is possible to estimate probability density functions, because each year of a multi-annual integration is an equally valid realisation for the meteorology of the pre-selected year.

Using such a time-slice approach, sensitivities to well-specified individual changes can be assessed. Here, we provide a range of examples using the ICON-ART modelling system to investigate (idealised) climate change scenarios with respect to different threshold temperatures, jet variability and the climatic impact of the ozone hole. We illustrate how such integrations allow the unambiguous attribution of certain climate change effects, e.g. the change of jet stream variability under global warming or the contribution of the ozone hole to regional surface warming. However, we caution against a strict causality chain of processes in explaining the response, because given the nature of the quasi-equilibrium modelled, consistency might not always imply causality.