Stratosphere-Mesosphere exchange: Long term changes and drivers

The meridional overturning mass circulation in the middle atmosphere, i.e. the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), was first discovered before decades based on the distribution of trace gases and a basic analytical concept of BDC has been derived using the transformed Eulerian mean equations. Since then, BDC is usually defined as consisting of a diffusive part, and an advective, residual mean circulation. In the vertical, BDC is separated into two branches – a shallow branch in the lower stratosphere and a deep branch higher in the middle atmosphere.
Climate model simulations robustly show that the advective BDC part accelerates in connection to the greenhouse gas-induced climate change and this acceleration dominates the middle atmospheric changes in climate model projections. A prominent quantity that is being studied as a proxy for advective BDC changes is the net tropical upwelling across the tropopause, which measures the amount of mass advected by residual circulation from the troposphere to the stratosphere per unit of time. The upper BDC branch received considerably less research attention than its shallow part, but features some striking phenomenon in the terrestrial atmosphere. It couples the stratosphere and mesosphere and is also responsible for a large portion of interhemispheric transport and coupling in the middle atmosphere.
In our research, for the first time, we produce a conceptual study of the advective stratosphere-mesosphere exchange. The analysis of advective exchange of mass between the stratosphere and mesosphere, i.e. the advective mass transport across the stratopause represents another step towards a better understanding of the structure of the upper BDC part and at the same time provides valuable insights into the relatively little-explored stratopause region. We investigate the variability and trends in mass fluxes from the stratosphere to the mesosphere and vice versa based on data from the EMAC-L90 model CCMI-1 simulation for the period 1960-2100. We develop an analytical method that allows us to attribute the changes of transport to causative factors such as acceleration of residual circulation, variable height of the stratopause, change of a geometric shape of the stratopause and changes in width of the upwelling and downwelling regions. The main driver of the increasing mass exchange between the stratosphere and the mesosphere is the faster circulation, however, the other terms are not negligible. The derived methodology offers the possibility of using an analogous procedure also for the tropopause in the future.