Comparison of convective precursors from ALADIN and ERA5 Reanalyses over Central Europe

In this study, we investigate the representation of atmospheric conditions favourable for severe convective storms using two different reanalyses: the regional, convection-permitting ALADIN model with a horizontal resolution of 2.3 km, and the global ERA5 dataset produced by the ECMWF, featuring a resolution of 0.25°. We focus on two essential environmental parameters: Most Unstable Convective Available Potential Energy (MUCAPE) and deep-layer (0–6 km) wind shear, which are widely used in both operational forecasting and climatological analyses of convective environments.

The comparison is performed for the region of Central Europe, with a dual focus. First, a point-based evaluation is conducted using vertical profiles from the upper-air sounding station Prague-Libuš, covering the period 1992–2019. This long-term observational reference enables a detailed assessment of the performance and consistency of both reanalyses in capturing convective parameters. Second, we examine the spatial distribution and seasonal characteristics of MUCAPE and wind shear fields over a broader Central European domain, based on daily data from the period 1991–2020.

By analysing both local and regional characteristics, we aim to better understand the strengths and limitations of each reanalysis in capturing convective potential and storm-related wind profiles. These findings are relevant for applications in climatology, model validation, and long-term assessments of severe weather risk in the region.