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Oral Programme NP5.1

NP5.1

Nonlinear instabilities and predictability
Convener: Zoltan Toth 
Co-Conveners: Stéphane Vannitsem , Wansuo Duan , Ayrton Zadra , Juan Manuel Lopez , Diego Pazó , Sarah Hallerberg 
Session details
Oral Programme
 / Wed, 06 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / Room 13
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Wed, 06 Apr, 15:30–17:00  / Display Wed, 06 Apr, 08:00–19:30  / Halls X/Y
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Wednesday, 06 Apr 2011
Room 13
Chairperson: Mu Mu
08:30–08:45
EGU2011-5025
Lyapunov covariant modes and predictability (solicited)
Bernard Legras, Guillaume Lapeyre, and Pietro Peterlongo
08:45–09:00
EGU2011-2863
Seasonal climate predictability in multiple model ensembles (solicited)
Youmin Tang
09:00–09:15
EGU2011-5176
Quantifying the limits of oceanic decadal predictability (solicited)
Florian Sévellec and Alexey Fedorov
09:15–09:30
EGU2011-5455
Relationship between the predictability limit and initial error in chaotic systems (solicited)
Jianping Li and Ruiqiang Ding
09:30–09:45
EGU2011-4977
Nonlinear sensitivity analysis for small model ensembles
Leonid Ivanov, Robin T. Tokmakian, Curtis A. Collins, and Tetyana Margolina
09:45–10:00
EGU2011-5415
Dynamics of the error and Lyapunov instability of a moist low-order climate model
Stéphane Vannitsem and Aimé Fournier
COFFEE BREAK
Chairperson: Juan M Lopez
10:30–10:45
EGU2011-5787
Singular vector growth in different flow regimes of the differentially heated rotating annulus (solicited)
Uwe Harlander, Torsten Seelig, and Robin Faulwetter
10:45–11:00
EGU2011-4717
Dimension-reduced projection 4DVar based on an orthogonal expansion of filtering function (solicited)
Bin Wang and Juanjuan Liu
11:00–11:15
EGU2011-14068
The MVL Diagram for Fingerprinting GCMs and Ensemble Prediction Systems
José Gutiérrez, Miguel A. Rodríguez, Sixto Herrera, and Jesús Fernández
11:15–11:30
EGU2011-10537
Development of an ensemble forecasting system for the short-range following different perturbation approaches.
Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, and Tiziana Paccagnella
11:30–11:45
EGU2011-3870
Convective Initiation using Diabatic Local Analysis and Prediction System and Weather Research Forecasting Model
Isidora Jankov
11:45–12:00 EGU2011-9913
A regional ensemble prediction system based on Ensemble Transform Bred Vectors (ETBV) (withdrawn)
Jan Keller, Andreas Hense, and Andreas Rhodin