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Poster Programme NP5.1

NP5.1

Nonlinear instabilities and predictability
Convener: Zoltan Toth  | Co-Conveners: Stéphane Vannitsem , Wansuo Duan , Ayrton Zadra , Juan Manuel Lopez , Diego Pazó , Sarah Hallerberg 
Oral Programme
 / Wed, 06 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / Room 13
Poster Programme
 / Attendance Wed, 06 Apr, 15:30–17:00  / Display Wed, 06 Apr, 08:00–19:30  / Halls X/Y

Display time: Wednesday, 6 April 2011 08:00–19:30
Attendance Time: Wednesday, 6 April 2011, 15:30–17:00
Halls X/Y
Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY488
EGU2011-2817
The "spring predictability barrier" for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: results from a fully coupled model
Wansuo Duan and Chao Wei

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY489
EGU2011-2269
Maximizing the statistical diversity of an ensemble of bred vectors by using the geometric norm
Diego Pazó, Miguel A. Rodríguez, and Juan M. López

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY490
EGU2011-10336
Chaotic dynamics of a two-scale Lorenz'96 model: Multiple evolution regimes and large-scale spatial patterns.
Miguel Angel Rodriguez, Sixto Herrera, Diego Pazó, Jesús Fernández, and Jose Manuel Gutiérrez

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY491
EGU2011-1541
Does model parameter error in the Zebiak-Cane model cause a significant spring predictability barrier in its El Niño prediction? (solicited)
Yanshan Yu, Mu Mu, and Wansuo Duan

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY492
EGU2011-3947
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model
Yanshan Yu, Wansuo Duan, Hui Xu, and Mu Mu

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY493
EGU2011-9495
Rescaled Bred Vectors: 'À la carte' ensemble diversity
Victor Homar Santaner and David J Stensrud

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY494
EGU2011-2389
Application of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to transitions of Kuroshio path south of Japan
Libin Ma, Mu Mu, and Qiang Wang

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY495
EGU2011-4921 | presentation
Algorithms for the integration of variational equations of multidimensional Hamiltonian systems
Enrico Gerlach, Siegfried Eggl, and Charalampos Skokos

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY496
EGU2011-2809
Response of the grassland ecosystem equilibrium state to climate change within a theoretical model (solicited)
Guodong Sun and Mu Mu

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY497
EGU2011-2851
Exploring seasonal variation characters on the net primary production by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation in China
Guodong Sun and Mu Mu

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY498
EGU2011-3265
Parallel Ensemble-based Approach for the Computation of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation
Ming Cui

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY499
EGU2011-4562
Assimilation of asymmetric dropsonde data and a bogus vortex using a 4DVar system
Juanjuan Liu, Shudong Wang, and Bin Wang

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY500
EGU2011-5727
A Preliminary Application of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation to Rainfall of Typhoon Fung-wong (2008)
Wang Tie, Pan Ye-Sen, Huang Hong, and Tan Yan-ke

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY501
EGU2011-10716
Predictability of stochastic climate models with red noise (solicited)
Faming Wang

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY502
EGU2011-2509
Treatment of the error due to unresolved scales in sequential data assimilation
Alberto Carrassi and Stephane Vannitsem

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY503
EGU2011-2563
Inclination stability of the planet rotation axis in the solar system
Shigehisa Nakamura

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY504
EGU2011-5465
The use of tendencies for post-processing. Analysis of the YOTC forecast data.
Bert Van Schaeybroeck and Stéphane Vannitsem

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY505
EGU2011-6429
Post-processing of ensemble precipitation predictions with extended logistic regression based on hindcasts
Emmanuel Roulin and Stéphane Vannitsem

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY506
EGU2011-11263
Forecast sufficiency and scoring rules
Jochen Broecker

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY507
EGU2011-13318
Ensemble regression exigent analysis applied to a case of Florida citrus damage
Daniel Gombos and Ross Hoffman

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY508
EGU2011-1374
DEVELOPMENT of OSCILLATIONS THEORY by PROFESSORS of S.N. KOZHEVNIKOV And I.K. KOSKO.
Elizaveta Gorbenko and Galyna Sokol

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY509
EGU2011-4094
Robust ensemble filtering in handling uncertainties in data assimilation
Xiaodong Luo and Ibrahim Hoteit

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY510 EGU2011-10509
The Perturbation Analysis of Nonlinear Ill-conditioned Solution (withdrawn)
Hao Weifeng, Li Fei, Zhang Jie, and Shao Xianyuan

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY511
EGU2011-3681 | presentation
Probabilistic precipitation forecasts based on the COSMO-DE time-lagged ensemble
Sabrina Bentzien and Petra Friederichs

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY512
EGU2011-3868
Sensitivity of Weather Forecasts over North America to Cycling of Initial Conditions
Isidora Jankov

Chairperson: Wansuo Duan, Sarah Hallerberg, Diego Pazo, Ayrton Zadra
XY513
EGU2011-1822
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Inflation Factors of Error Covariance Matrices for Ensemble Kalman Filter Assimilation
xiaogu zheng and xiao liang