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Orals CL3.01

CL3.01

Climate Predictions - from monthly, seasonal to decadal time scales
Convener: Mark A. Liniger  | Co-Conveners: Stéphane Vannitsem , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Wolfgang Müller , Gregory Duane , Noel Keenlyside 
Orals
 / Tue, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / Room E2
Posters
 / Attendance Tue, 19 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X3

Tuesday, 19 April 2016
Room E2
Chairperson: Mark Liniger
08:30–08:45
EGU2016-4319
Improved seasonal prediction of winter NAO through ensemble sub-sampling. (solicited)
Mikhail Dobrynin, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Wolfgang A. Müller, Louisa Bell, Sebastian Brune, Felix Bunzel, Kristina Fröhlich, Holger Pohlmann, and Johanna Baehr
08:45–09:00
EGU2016-4345
Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack of) come from?
Elsa Mohino and Noel Keenlyside
09:00–09:15
EGU2016-14052
Dynamically downscaled multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts over Ethiopia
Shakeel Asharaf, Kristina Fröhlich, Jesus Fernandez, Rita Cardoso, Grigory Nikulin, and Barbara Früh
09:15–09:30
EGU2016-17478
An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: A global analysis
Emma Suckling, Ed Hawkins, Jonathan Eden, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
09:30–09:45
EGU2016-2203
The development of climate models: tuning vs. flux corrections
Dietmar Dommenget
09:45–10:00
EGU2016-9226
Spatial-temporal assessment of climate model drifts
Davide Zanchettin, Maeregu Woldeyes Arisido, Carlo Gaetan, and Angelo Rubino
Coffee break
10:30–10:45
EGU2016-5251
Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth
Andrea Alessandri, Franco Catalano, Matteo De Felice, Bart Van Den Hurk, Francisco Doblas Reyes, Souhail Boussetta, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Paul Miller
10:45–11:00
EGU2016-984
Exploiting the atmosphere’s memory for monthly, seasonal and interannual temperature forecasting using Scaling LInear Macroweather Model (SLIMM)
Lenin Del Rio Amador and Shaun Lovejoy
11:00–11:15 EGU2016-2720
Progress towards improving climate prediction by mathematical methods. (withdrawn)
Youmin Tang and Xianming Zhang
11:15–11:30
EGU2016-15945
Supermodeling by Synchronization of Alternative SPEEDO Models
Gregory Duane and Frank Selten
11:30–11:45
EGU2016-15413
Understanding independence
James Annan and Julia Hargreaves
11:45–12:00
EGU2016-5400
Predicting Climate Change using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns
Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit, and Francesco Ragone