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Posters CL3.01

CL3.01

Climate Predictions - from monthly, seasonal to decadal time scales
Convener: Mark A. Liniger  | Co-Conveners: Stéphane Vannitsem , Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Wolfgang Müller , Gregory Duane , Noel Keenlyside 
Orals
 / Tue, 19 Apr, 08:30–12:00  / Room E2
Posters
 / Attendance Tue, 19 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X3

Attendance Time: Tuesday, 19 April 2016, 17:30–19:00
Hall X3
Chairperson: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
X3.196
EGU2016-4644
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts with CNRM-CM: model evaluation and perspectives
Lauriane Batté, Constantin Ardilouze, Matthieu Chevallier, and Michel Déqué

X3.197
EGU2016-14122
Verification of ECMWF monthly forecasts for the use in hydrological predictions
Samuel Monhart, Christoph Spirig, Jonas Bhend, Mark A. Liniger, Konrad Bogner, and Christoph Schär

X3.198
EGU2016-5737
Combination of synoptical-analogous and dynamical methods to increase skill score of monthly air temperature forecasts over Northern Eurasia
Valentina Khan, Valery Tscepelev, Roman Vilfand, Irina Kulikova, Ekaterina Kruglova, and Vladimir Tischenko

X3.199
EGU2016-7346
Understanding Dry Bias in the Simulations of Indian Monsoon by CFSv2 Through Analysis of Moisture Transport
Sahana Saheer, Amey Pathak, Roxy Mathew, and Subimal Ghosh

X3.200
EGU2016-9832
Impact of the springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau on the onset on the Indian summer monsoon in coupled forecasts
Yvan Orsolini, Retish Senan, Antje Weisheimer, Frederic Vitart, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Timothy Stockdale, and Emanuel Dutra

X3.201
EGU2016-2961
Assessment of seasonal prediction skill of East Asian summer monsoon in CMIP5
Bo Huang, Christopher Kadow, and Ulrich Cubasch

X3.202
EGU2016-8801
Towards an automatic statistical model for seasonal precipitation prediction and its application to Central and South Asian headwater catchments
Lars Gerlitz, Abror Gafurov, Heiko Apel, Katy Unger-Sayesteh, Sergiy Vorogushyn, and Bruno Merz

X3.203
EGU2016-13201
Positive impact of the new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal prediction skill of 2-meter air temperatures over Europe
Felix Bunzel, Wolfgang Müller, Tobias Stacke, Stefan Hagemann, Mikhail Dobrynin, Johanna Baehr, and Kristina Fröhlich

X3.204
EGU2016-14413
An empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction
Jonathan Eden, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Ed Hawkins, and Emma Suckling

X3.205
EGU2016-8151
Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface heat flux correction
Tina Dippe, Richard Greatbatch, and Hui Ding

X3.206
EGU2016-17498
Benefits of resolution increase for seasonal forecast quality in EC-Earth
Chloé Prodhomme, Lauriane Batté, François Massonnet, Paolo Davini, Virginie Guemas, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes

X3.207
EGU2016-9292
Seasonal Forecasts of Climate Indices: Impact of Definition and Spatial Aggregation on Predictive Skill
Jonas Bhend, Irina Mahlstein, and Mark Liniger

X3.208
EGU2016-16659
Evaluation and first forecasts of the German Climate Forecast System 1 (GCFS1)
Kristina Fröhlich, Johanna Baehr, Wolfgang Müller, Felix Bunzel, Holger Pohlmann, and Mikhail Dobrynin and the further members of the joint working group on seasonal prediction

X3.209
EGU2016-17150
Seasonal Forecasts for Northern Hemisphere Winter 2015/16
Sarah Ineson, Adam Scaife, Ruth Comer, Nick Dunstone, David Fereday, Chris Folland, Margaret Gordon, Alexey Karpechko, Jeff Knight, Craig MacLachlan, Doug Smith, and Brent Walker

X3.210
EGU2016-9514 | presentation
Calibration and combination of seasonal forecast over Southern Europe
Eroteida Sanchez, Jose Voces, and Ernesto Rodriguez-Camino

X3.211
EGU2016-4308
A predictive relationship between early season North Atlantic hurricane activity and the upcoming winter North Atlantic Oscillation
Jessica Boyd and Mark Saunders

X3.212
EGU2016-13280
Stratified verification of decadal mid-latitude cyclones and wind storms forecasts
Jens Grieger, Igor Kröner, Ines Höschel, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich

X3.213
EGU2016-10249
Investigating the potential of SST assimilation for ocean state estimation and climate prediction
Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon, Ingo Bethke, Yiguo Wang, Sebastien Billeau, Mao-Lin Shen, and Mats Bentsen

X3.214
EGU2016-6966
Predictability over the North Atlantic ocean in hindcast ensembles of MPI-ESM initialized by EnKF and three nudging systems
Sebastian Brune, Holger Pohlmann, Andre Düsterhus, Jürgen Kröger, Wolfgang Müller, and Johanna Baehr

X3.215
EGU2016-3960
Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe
Julia Moemken, Mark Reyers, Benjamin Buldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto

X3.216
EGU2016-11537
Decadal prediction with a high resolution model
Paul-Arthur Monerie, Sophie Valcke, Laurent Terray, and Marie-Pierre Moine

X3.217
EGU2016-7413
Processes Understanding of Decadal Climate Variability
Kerstin Prömmel and Ulrich Cubasch

X3.218
EGU2016-389 | presentation
The Relative Contribution of Internal and Model Variabilities to the Uncertainty in Decadal Climate Predictions
Ehud Strobach and Golan Bel

X3.219
EGU2016-15714
The role of the tropical West Pacific in the extreme northern hemisphere winter of 2013/14
Peter Watson, Antje Weisheimer, Jeff Knight, and Tim Palmer

X3.220
EGU2016-7876
Comparison of surface freshwater fluxes from different climate forecasts produced through different ensemble generation schemes.
Vanya Romanova, Andreas Hense, Sabrina Wahl, Sebastian Brune, and Johanna Baehr

X3.221
EGU2016-11423
Forced synchronization of large-scale circulation to increase predictability of surface states
Mao-Lin Shen, Noel Keenlyside, Frank Selten, Wim Wiegerinck, and Gregory Duane

X3.222
EGU2016-10154
Diagnosing model errors associated with convective schemes through a super-model approach
Bhuwan Bhatt, Mao-Lin Shen, and Noel Keenlyside

X3.223
EGU2016-18495
Improving predictions by cross pollination in time
Francine Schevenhoven and Frank Selten

X3.224
EGU2016-7377
The UK Earth System Model project
Yongming Tang

X3.225
EGU2016-11397 | presentation
A performance weighting procedure for GCMs based on explicit probabilistic models and accounting for observation uncertainty
Benjamin Renard and Jean-Philippe Vidal

X3.226
EGU2016-12422
Development and comparison of weighting metrics for probabilistic climate change projections of Mediterranean precipitation
Irena Kaspar-Ott, Elke Hertig, Felix Pollinger, Christoph Ring, Heiko Paeth, and Jucundus Jacobeit

X3.227
EGU2016-483
Evaluation of GCMs in the context of regional predictive climate impact studies.
Vasily Kokorev and Oleg Anisimov

X3.228
EGU2016-18498
Bayesian Attractor Learning
Wim Wiegerinck, Christiaan Schoenaker, and Gregory Duane

X3.229
EGU2016-1489
A Piecewise Modeling Approach for Sensitivity Studies – Tests with WRF Model
Aimei Shao and Chongjian Qiu