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Posters NP5.2

NP5.2

Initial error dynamics and model error physics in predictability studies of weather and climate
Convener: Mu Mu  | Co-Conveners: Wansuo Duan , Stéphane Vannitsem 
Orals
 / Thu, 27 Apr, 15:30–17:00  / Room M2
Posters
 / Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 17:30–19:00  / Hall X4

Attendance Time: Thursday, 27 April 2017, 17:30–19:00
Hall X4
Chairperson: Mu Mu, Wansuo Duan, Stéphane Vannitsem
X4.182
EGU2017-7
Using an ICM ensemble prediction system outputs to explore the “spring predictability barrier” for 2015/2016 El Niño event
Qianqian Qi, Wansuo Duan, Fei Zheng, and Youmin Tang

X4.183
EGU2017-8
Nonlinearity Modulating Central Pacific- and Eastern Pacific-El Niño Events in Intensities and Spatial Structures
Wansuo Duan, Chaoming Huang, and Hui Xu

X4.184
EGU2017-218
Effect of wind stress forcing uncertainties on predictability of the current through the beginning of Kuroshio
Xixi Wen and Wansuo Duan

X4.185
EGU2017-2415
Effects of optimal initial errors on predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport
Kun Zhang, Qiang Wang, Mu Mu, and Peng Liang

X4.186
EGU2017-2416
Optimal precursors triggering the Kuroshio Extension state transition obtained by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation approach
Xing Zhang, Mu Mu, Qiang Wang, and Stefano Pierini

X4.187
EGU2017-2935
Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipiole event predictions
Rong Feng, Wansuo Duan, and Mu Mu

X4.188
EGU2017-5455
The Effects of the Amplification of Numerical Noise through Chaos on Predictability Studies
Brian Ancell

X4.189
EGU2017-5748
The role of model errors represented by nonlinear forcing singular vector tendency error in causing the “spring predictability barrier” within ENSO predictions
Wansuo Duan and Peng Zhao

X4.190
EGU2017-6030
Predictability of Forced Lorenz Systems
Baosheng Li, Ruiqiang Ding, Jianping Li, and Quanjia Zhong

X4.191
EGU2017-6631
Determining the spectrum of the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents in a multidimensional chaotic system
Ruiqiang Ding and Jianping Li

X4.192
EGU2017-12560
Optimal error analysis of the intraseasonal convection due to uncertainties of the sea surface temperature in a coupled model
Xiaojing Li, Youmin Tang, and Zhixiong Yao

X4.193
EGU2017-18500
The adjoint sensitivity of heavy rainfall to initial conditions in debris flow areas in China
Feifan Zhou

X4.194
EGU2017-19445
Seasonal predictability of sea surface temperature anomalies over the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension: low in summer and high in winter
Yujie Wu and Wansuo Duan

X4.195
EGU2017-19446
Comparison of the initial errors most likely to cause a spring predictability barrier for two types of El Niño events
Ben Tian