CL3.01 MediaClimate Predictions - from monthly, seasonal to decadal time scales
|Convener: Stéphane Vannitsem | Co-Conveners: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes , Wolfgang Müller , Mark A. Liniger|
Forecasts of climate at decadal, seasonal, and monthly time scales will be discussed in this session. This will include presentations and discussions of predictions for a time horizon of up to ten years from dynamical ensemble and statistical/empirical forecast systems. Further topics include
* forecast quality assessment in various climate components
* physical concepts and processes at the base of predictability
* initial drift analysis and bias adjustment
* role of anthropogenic climate change
* ensemble forecast generation and initialization
* post processing of climate forecasts
* approaches to address model uncertainty
* statistical and dynamical downscaling
* demonstrations of end-user value for climate risk applications and climate-change adaptation
* the use of multi-scale data assimilation approaches to reduce initial shocks
additionally, we discuss the topics in the context of alternative climate model approaches and ensemble methods, super modeling approaches or parametrisation.
A special focus will be put on results from the CMIP5 decadal prediction experiments and projects (e.g. CHFP, NACLIM, SPECS and EUPORIAS).