Space-time dynamics of floods: processes, controls, and risk
The space-time dynamics of floods are controlled by atmospheric, catchment, river system and anthropogenic processes and their interactions. The natural oscillatory behaviour of floods (between flood-rich and flood-poor periods) superimpose with anthropogenic climate change and human interventions in river morphology and land uses. In addition, flood risk is further shaped by continuous changes in exposure and vulnerability. Despite more frequent exploratory analyses of the changes in spatio-temporal dynamics of flood hazard and risk, it remains unclear how and why these changes are occurring. The scope of this session is to report when, where, how (detection) and why (attribution) changes in the space-time dynamics of floods occur. Of particular interest is what drivers are responsible for observed changes. Presentations on the impact of climate variability and change, land use changes and morphologic changes in streams, as well as on the role of pre-flood catchment conditions in shaping flood hazard and risk are welcome. Furthermore, contributions on the impact of socio-economic and structural factors on past and future risk changes are invited. This session is jointly organised by the Panta Rhei Working Groups “Understanding Flood Changes” and “Changes in Flood Risk”. The session will further stimulate scientific discussion on flood change detection and attribution. Specifically, the following topics are of interest for this session:
- Decadal oscillations in rainfall and floods
- Process-informed extreme value statistics
- Interactions between spatial rainfall and catchment conditions shaping flood patterns
- Detection and attribution of flood hazard changes: atmospheric drivers, land use controls and river training, among others
- Changes in flood risk: urbanisation of flood prone areas, implementation of risk mitigation measures, changes of economic, societal and technological drivers, flood vulnerability, among others.
- Future flood risk changes and adaptation and mitigation strategies