The Earth system, consisting many interacting (sub)components, has strong internal variability on many time scales, is subject to a non-stationary forcing and mostly out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Large-scale transitions occur, for example due to the existence of tipping points in components of the climate system, and these in many cases depend on the complex interaction between different sub-systems. Moreover, the role of small-scale processes (in many models represented as noise) to induce these transitions is not well known for many important tipping elements.

In climate science, the concept of equilibrium and transient climate sensitivity is widely used for understanding how the climate changes in response to natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing. Over the last decade considerable progress has been made in understanding and defining climate sensitivity. Nevertheless, the uncertainty in climate sensitivity remains high. Moreover, its scope is quite limited, because it deals only with long term changes of the globally averaged surface temperature and is unable to account for the existence of tipping elements and large scale transitions.

The session aims at addressing the problem of connecting fluctuations and response for the climate system, including issues like climate sensitivity, climate variability, extreme events and tipping points. In particular, general approaches and novel measures to quantify the climate response to non-stationary forcing in the climate system are encouraged.
We also aim at studying the complex interactions between the different components and subcomponents of Earth system in order to understand how these interactions influence on system/subsystems (potentially tipping) behavior. External forcing may also impact the nature of interaction between connected subsystems. The submissions which are focused on the study of reasons and mechanisms of the emergent behavior are especially welcome. Such behavior may be inferred from time-dependent connectivity in data, first principle and data-driven modelling.

We welcome contributions that investigate specific feedbacks and their impact on climate sensitivity in all components of the climate system; processes on intermediate to long time scales that are generally difficult quantify such as ocean heat uptake are particularly encouraged. In addition, we welcome contributions studying the state dependence of climate sensitivity, including those focusing on the potential proximity of tipping points.

This is a merged session of 'Climate Sensitivity, Climate Response, and Tipping Points' and 'Networked connections in geosystems: revealing, studying of mechanisms, evolution in time, influence on emergent behavior'.

Co-organized as CL4.16
Convener: Anna von der Heydt | Co-conveners: Alexander Feigin, Michel Crucifix, Jürgen Kurths, Valerio Lucarini
| Thu, 11 Apr, 08:30–10:15
Room E2
| Attendance Thu, 11 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X4

Thursday, 11 April 2019 | Room E2

Chairperson: Anna von der Heydt
08:30–08:45 |
| Highlight
Bedartha Goswami, Niklas Boers, Peter Ditlevsen, Peter Ashwin, Michel Crucifix, Michael Ghil, Anna von der Heydt, Valerio Lucarini, Marisa Montoya, Nicola Botta, Denis-Didier Rousseau, Louis Sime, and Thomas Stocker
09:00–09:15 |
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter Ditlevsen, and Henk Dijkstra
09:15–09:30 |
| solicited
Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil, and Denis-Didier Rousseau
09:30–09:45 |
| solicited
Peter Ditlevsen
09:45–10:00 |
Aleksei Seleznev, Dmitry Mukhin, Andrey Gavrilov, Evgeny Loskutov, and Alexander Feigin
10:00–10:15 |
Michael Ghil