Orals

HS4.2.1

Ensemble hydro-meteorological prediction systems have higher forecasting skills than their deterministic counterparts, which in turn can improve risk assessment decision-making in operational water management. Ensemble forecasts are now common many operational settings, such as flood and drought forecasting, and can be used in applications from forecasting extreme events to optimisation of water resources allocation. However, moving from deterministic forecasting systems to a probabilistic framework poses new challenges but it also opens new opportunities for the developers and users of ensemble forecasts to improve their systems.

This session brings together scientists, forecasters, practitioners and stakeholders interested in exploring the use of ensemble hydro-meteorological forecast techniques in hydrological applications: e.g., flood control and warning, reservoir operation for hydropower and water supply, transportation and agricultural management. The session will also explore new forecast products and systems in terms of their implementation and practice for real-time forecasting.

Contributions will cover, but are not restricted to, the following topics:
- The design of ensemble prediction systems
- Requirements and techniques to improve the skill of hydro-meteorological ensemble forecasting systems
- Methods to bias correct and calibrate ensemble forecasts
- Methods to assess the quality or benchmark the performance of ensemble forecasts
- Approaches to deal with forecast scenarios in real-time
- Strategies for balancing human expertise and automation in ensemble forecasting systems
- Challenges of the paradigm shift from deterministic to ensemble forecasts
- Methods and products that include forecaster knowledge to improve the interpretation of ensemble forecasts
-Use of cost/loss scenarios for optimising systems
- Approaches for efficient training (including role-playing games) on the use and value of ensemble predictions.

The session welcomes new experiments and practical applications showing successful experiences, as well as problems and failures encountered in the use of uncertain forecasts and ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting systems. Case studies dealing with different users, temporal and spatial scales, forecast ranges, hydrological and climatic regimes are welcome.

Solicited speaker Niko Wanders from Utrecht University: From seasonal forecasting to water management decisions: challenges and opportunities

The session is part of the HEPEX international initiative: www.hepex.org

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Co-organized as AS4.5/NH1.33, co-sponsored by HEPEX
Convener: Fredrik Wetterhall | Co-conveners: Rebecca Emerton, Kolbjorn Engeland, Tomasz Niedzielski, Jan Verkade
Orals
| Tue, 09 Apr, 10:45–12:30
 
Room 2.31
Posters
| Attendance Tue, 09 Apr, 08:30–10:15
 
Hall A

Tuesday, 9 April 2019 | Room 2.31

Chairperson: Fredrik Wetterhall
11:00–11:15 |
EGU2019-9064
Fatima Pillosu, Calum Baugh, Tim Hewson, Elisabeth Stephens, Christel Prudhomme, and Hannah Cloke
11:15–11:30 |
EGU2019-7171
Céline Cattoën, David E. Robertson, James C. Bennett, Quan J. Wang, and Trevor Carey-Smith
11:30–11:45 |
EGU2019-11516
Carlos Velasco-Forero, Agathe Boronkay, Justin Robinson, and Alan Seed
11:45–12:00 |
EGU2019-12235
Andy Wood, Bart Nijssen, Manabendra Saharia, Andrew Newman, Martyn Clark, and Naoki Mizukami
12:00–12:15 |
EGU2019-14765
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Lorenzo Alfieri, Christel Prudhomme, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, Elisabeth Stephens, and Florian Pappenberger
12:15–12:30 |
EGU2019-8652
Louise Crochemore, Carolina Cantone, Christiana Photiadou, and Ilias Pechlivanidis