Our capability to provide timely and reliable seismic risk estimates is an essential element towards building a resilient society, through informed decision for risk management. The scientific base of the process of seismic risk mitigation includes various seismic hazard models, developed at different time scales and by different methods, as well as the use of information as complete and reliable as possible about past seismicity.
Some recent large earthquakes caused extensive damage in areas where some models indicated low seismic hazard, leading to an increased demand for criteria to objectively assess how well seismic hazard models are performing. This session aims to tackle theoretical and implementation issues, which are essential for the development of effective mitigation strategies and include:
⇒ methods for comparison of seismic hazard models and their performance evaluation;
⇒ hazard and risk assessment of extreme seismic events;
⇒ long-term evidences about past great earthquakes (including unconventional seismological observations, such as impact on caves, ancient constructions and other deformations evidences);
⇒ earthquake hazard assessment in terms of macro-seismic intensity;
⇒ seismic risk estimation at different time and space scale.
In particular, the session will address concepts, problems, and approaches in assessing hazard related to the earthquakes that “may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental damage” (according to UNISDR terminology). The session will include discussions of the pros and cons of deterministic, neo-deterministic, probabilistic, and intensity-based seismic hazard assessments. The latter is of special importance for Europe because of the available large historical information on macro-seismic intensities.
We invite contributions related to: hazard and risk assessment methods and their performance in applications; critical observations and constraints for seismic hazard assessment; verification methods that are suitable to quantify seismic hazard estimates and that can be applied to limited and/or heterogeneous observations (ranging from recent records of ground shaking parameters to past intensity data); seismic hazard and risk monitoring and modeling; and risk communication and mitigation.
The session will provide an opportunity to discuss best practices and share experience gained with different testing methods, including their application in different fields. We hope to highlight both the existing gaps and future research directions that could strengthen the procedures for testing and comparing performance of seismic hazard models.

Co-organized as SM3.5
Convener: Antonella Peresan | Co-conveners: Katalin Gribovszki, Vladimir Kossobokov, Elisa Varini, Mihaela Kouteva
| Mon, 08 Apr, 08:30–12:30
Room M1
| Attendance Mon, 08 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X3

Monday, 8 April 2019 | Room M1

Chairperson: Antonella Peresan, Elisa Varini
Advances in seismic hazard and risk assessment: observations, testing and implementation
08:30–08:45 |
Vivek Walia, Arvind Kumar, Ching-Chou Fu, Shih-Jung Lin, and Kuo-Liang Wen
09:00–09:15 |
Rashmi Singh, Prosanta Kumar Khan, Subham Sharma, and Supriyo Mitra
09:30–09:45 |
Erdal Safak, Eser Cakti, and Suleyman Tunc
09:45–10:00 |
Dragos Toma-Danila, Carmen Cioflan, Dragos Tataru, and Constantin Ionescu
10:00–10:15 |
Himanshu Mittal, Ting-Li Lin, Wei-An Chao, and Yih-Min Wu
Coffee break
Chairperson: Katalin Gribovszki, Vladimir Kossobokov
10:45–11:00 |
Donato Abruzzese, Stefano Petrazzuoli, Enrico Lo Re, Silvio Pierdiluca, and Valerio Reale
11:00–11:15 |
Giuseppe De Natale, Stefano Petrazzuoli, Claudia Troise, Fabio Romanelli, Renato Somma, Franco Vaccari, and Giuliano Panza
Long-term evidence from past great earthquakes: critical observations and constraints for seismic hazard assessment
11:15–11:30 |
Alik Ismail-Zadeh, Inessa Vorobieva, and Alexander Gorshkov
12:15–12:30 |
Pierre Morena, Antonio Cattaneo, Gueorgui Ratzov, Frauke Klingelhoefer, Arthur Bieber, Bruno Marsset, Guillaume St-Onge, Christian Beck, Eva Moreno, Boris Marcaillou, and Nathalie Feuillet