CL3.03 | PICO

Carbon budgets are a finite quantity of carbon that can be emitted whilst holding warming below some given temperature level, such as the 1.5 and 2.0ºC temperature limits specified in the Paris Agreement. Carbon budgets emerge from the near-proportional relationship between total anthropogenic emissions of CO2 and change in global mean temperature seen in virtually all Earth System Models. This relationship is known as the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE). Carbon budgets and the associated cumulative emissions framework have recently been used to: estimate the fraction of known fossil fuel reserves that can be burnt, attribute historical responsibility for climate change, and to scrutinize national emissions commitments towards meeting the Paris Agreement goal.

The session invites contributions examining a wide range of aspects related to carbon budgets and the TCRE framework, including: the governing mechanisms that lead to the emergence of TCRE, how carbon budgets are affected by previously unquantified feedbacks (e.g. permafrost carbon feedback, wetland methane feedback) and non-CO2 forcings (e.g. aerosols, non-CO2 greenhouse gases ext.), quantification of the remaining carbon budget to reach given temperature goals (for example, from the Paris Agreement), uncertainties associated with these budgets, the role of pathway dependence, and the behaviour of TCRE in response to artificial CO2 removal from the atmosphere. Contributions from the fields of climate policy and economics focused on applications of carbon budgets are also encouraged.

Co-organized as BG1.24
Convener: Andrew MacDougall | Co-conveners: Joeri Rogelj, Katarzyna Tokarska
| Mon, 08 Apr, 16:15–18:00
PICO spot 5a

Monday, 8 April 2019

PICO spot 5a
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:15–16:25 |
PICO5a.1 |
H. Damon Matthews
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:25–16:27 |
PICO5a.2 |
Yann Quilcaille, Thomas Gasser, Philippe Ciais, Franck Lecocq, and Michael Obersteiner
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:27–16:29 |
PICO5a.3 |
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Pfleiderer, Martin Stolpe, Nathan P. Gillet, and Katarzyna Tokarska
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:29–16:31 |
PICO5a.4 |
Kirsten Zickfeld, Katarzyna Tokarska, and Joeri Rogelj
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:31–16:33 |
PICO5a.5 |
Thomas Gasser, Mehdi Kechiar, Philippe Ciais, Eleanor Burke, Thomas Kleinen, Dan Zhu, Ye Huang, Altug Ekici, and Michael Obersteiner
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:33–16:35 |
PICO5a.6 |
| Highlight
JULES-IMOGEN and the Paris targets: a story of feedbacks, mitigation and inversion.
Edward Comyn-Platt, Garry Hayman, Chris Huntingford, Sarah Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, Anna Harper, William Collins, Tom Powell, Steven Sitch, Jason Lowe, Joanna House, Peter Cox, and Nicola Gedney
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:35–16:37 |
PICO5a.7 |
H. Damon Matthews and Nadine Mengis
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:37–16:39 |
PICO5a.8 |
Antti-Ilari Partanen, Nadine Mengis, Jonathan Jalbert, and H Damon Matthews
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:39–16:41 |
PICO5a.9 |
Michelle Cain, John Lynch, Keith Shine, Jan Fuglestvedt, Adrian Macey, Dave Frame, and Myles Allen
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:41–16:43 |
PICO5a.10 |
Nicholas Leach, Richard Millar, Karsten Haustein, Stuart Jenkins, and Myles Allen
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:43–16:45 |
PICO5a.11 |
Katherine Turner, Ric Williams, Anna Katavouta, and Andreas Oschlies
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:47–16:49 |
PICO5a.13 |
Alessandro Paletto, Elisa Pieratti, and Isabella De Meo
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
Chairperson: Andrew H. MacDougall
16:51–16:53 |
PICO5a.15 |
Adjustment Time of Anthropogenic CO2: An Observationally Based Model
Stephen E. Schwartz