Several large ensemble model simulations, either from Global Climate Models (GCM), Earth System Models (ESM), or Regional Climate Models (RCM), have been generated over the recent years. These ensembles, typically simulating historical climate and making future projections, are powerful because they can be used to accurately estimate forced changes in the climate system and to determine the magnitude and realism of simulated internal climate variability. They can further be applied to investigate how climate change signals may emerge from internal variability over time. Combining large ensemble simulations also provides long time series to investigate the dynamics of hydro-meteorological extremes and to assess compound events (e.g., successive or simultaneous extreme events) under conditions of climate change.

This session invites studies using large GCM, ESM, or RCM ensembles looking at the following topics: 1) forced changes in internal variability and reinterpretation of observed record; 2) development of new approaches to attribution of observed events or trends; 3) impacts of natural climate variability; 4) assessment of extreme event occurrence in historical and future climate; 5) development of projections for compound events; 6) comparison of large ensembles including uncertainty assessment; and 7) novel methods for efficient analyses and post-processing of large ensembles.

We welcome research across the components of the Earth system and particularly invite studies that apply novel methods or cross disciplinary approaches to leverage the potential of large ensembles.

Co-organized as CL3.08/HS4.1.4
Convener: Nicola Maher | Co-conveners: Sebastian Milinski, Emma Aalbers, Ralf Ludwig
| Wed, 10 Apr, 08:30–12:30
Room E2
| Attendance Wed, 10 Apr, 14:00–15:45
Hall X5

Attendance time: Wednesday, 10 April 2019, 14:00–15:45 | Hall X5

Chairperson: Nicola Maher, Ralf Ludwig, Emma Aalbers and Sebastian Milinski
Hall X5
X5.346 |
Jingwen Lu, Tianjun Zhou, Xin Huang, Wenxia Zhang, and Liwei Zou
Hall X5
X5.347 |
Ensemble estimates of changes of navigation period characteristics at the North Sea Route in the 21st century based on Bayesian statistical approaches
Olga Kibanova, Alexey V. Eliseev, Igor I. Mokhov, and Vyacheslav Ch. Khon
Hall X5
X5.348 |
Maurice F. Huguenin, Erich M. Fischer, Sven Kotlarski, Simon C. Scherrer, and Reto Knutti
Hall X5
X5.349 |
Giulio Nils Caroletti, Roberto Coscarelli, and Tommaso Caloiero
Hall X5
X5.350 |
Anna Merrifield, Erich Fischer, Flavio Lehner, Sebastian Sippel, Clara Deser, and Reto Knutti
Hall X5
X5.351 |
Tija Sile, Andrea Hahmann, Martin Dörenkämper, Yasemin Ezber, Elena Garcia-Bustamante, Fidel Gonzalez-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, and Björn Witha
Hall X5
X5.352 |
Yann Chavaillaz, H. Damon Matthews, Philippe Roy, and Diane Chaumont
Hall X5
X5.353 |
Nicola Maher, Sebastian Milinski, and Dirk Olonscheck
Hall X5
X5.354 |
Bjorn Stevens, Nicola Maher, Sebastian Milinski, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Michael Botzet, Luis Kornblueh, Yohei Takano, Jürgen Kröger, Rohit Ghosh, Christopher Hedemann, Chao Li, Hongmei Li, Elisa Manzini, Dirk Notz, Dian Putrasahan, Lena Boysen, Tatiana Ilyina, Dirk Olonscheck, Thomas Raddatz, and Jochem Marotzke and the Bjorn Stevens, Nicola Maher and Sebastian Milinski
Hall X5
X5.355 |
Sebastian Milinski, Jürgen Bader, and Johann H. Jungclaus
Hall X5
X5.356 |
Ralf Ludwig, Anne Frigon, Dieter Kranzlmueller, Richard Turcotte, Holger Komischke, Francois Brissette, and Alain Mailhot
Hall X5
X5.357 |
Qihui Chen, Hua Chen, Lu Li, Ran Huo, Chongyu Xu, Jie Chen, Shenglian Guo, and Lihua Xiong
Hall X5
X5.358 |
Erich Fischer and Lukas Brunner