Forecasting landslide at slope-scale: past achievements, present challenges and future perspectives

In general, the most reliable parameters to forecast the occurrence of a landslide are kinematics parameters, such as displacement, velocity and acceleration, since they represent the direct indicator of the stability conditions of a slope. Despite recent advancement in satellite interferometry, the highest temporal resolution, necessary to set up an effective early warning system, are still achievable from ground-based instrumentation.

Within this framework a few methods to forecast the time of failure of landslides at slope-scale have been developed in the last decades and, in many instances, they have been successfully used to prevent casualties and economic losses.

Common applications include public safety situations and open-pit mines, for which accurate warnings are crucial to protect workers and at the same time avoid unnecessary interruptions of the extraction activities.

In this work, a review of the most relevant kinematics-based forecasting methods is presented. Some examples are shown to illustrate the respective advantages, limitations and range of applicability of each method. Future challenges, trends and opportunities provided by technological innovations and scientific advances, also in related fields such as Material Science and Applied Mathematics, are also presented.