EGU2020-12548, updated on 04 Dec 2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12548
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh

Craig Hutton1, Robert Nicholls5, Alex Chapman2, Charlotte Marcinko4, Munsur Rahman3, Anisul Haque3, Andrew Harfoot1, Sugata Hazra, and Maskfiq Salehin
Craig Hutton et al.
  • 1University of Southampton, School of Geography and Environment, School of Geogrpahy and Environment, Southampton, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (cwh@geodata.soton.ac.uk)
  • 2New Economics Foundation, Vauxhall, London, UK
  • 3Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM), Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), Bangladesh
  • 4School of Engineering, University of Southampton, UK
  • 5Tyndall Centre, University of Eat Anglia, UK

There is growing recognition that new approaches, underpinned by more system-oriented decision support tools, will be required to facilitate development compatible with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and to prevent the risk of dangerous socio-environmental breakdown. We demonstrate the potential of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to inform strategic policy decision making at a regional level, helping to understand key trade-offs as well as indirect or unintended impacts. The stakeholder co-produced Delta Dynamic Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) model is applied to the southwest coastal zone (pop. 14m) where high rates of extreme poverty prevail. The model integrates biophysical drivers, ecosystem services and community level household wellbeing, and in this work is applied an behalf of the Planning Commission of the Government of Bangladesh in order to assess strategic risk in coastal Bangladesh (2050) and particularly to support the Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100. The intervention we investigated included i) A proposed extensive polder network in the south-central region of coastal Bangladesh ii) Strategic development of a chronically waterlogged area of the delta. In both areas we highlight insights on implications of biophysical drivers on poverty, livelihoods and inequality as well as on risk transfer between regions and populations associated with implementation. In doing so we critically assess IAMs’ growing potential to ask and explore key questions and scenarios about the functioning of integrated biophysical and socioeconomic systems. Finally, we point to ongoing applications of the model in West Bengal

How to cite: Hutton, C., Nicholls, R., Chapman, A., Marcinko, C., Rahman, M., Haque, A., Harfoot, A., Hazra, S., and Salehin, M.: Application of an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to for strategic scale delta assessment of socio-ecological risk: Supporting Policy in Coastal Bangladesh, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-12548, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-12548, 2020.

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