Recent fire activity in the boreal forests of central western Siberia is unprecedented in the past 5000 years: palaeoenvironmental evidence contextualises a burning issue

Although wildfire events in Siberia have increased in frequency and intensity over recent decades, in the absence of long-term records, it is not clear how far this trend deviates from baseline conditions. Short-term datasets categorise the forest fire regime in Siberia as one of surface, litter fires alternating withdevastating crown fires, although there is significant variability within this region likely reflecting vegetation composition. However, a comprehensive understanding of how vegetation composition and properties determine fire regimes remains lacking. To address this question we used two peat records spanning the last 2500 yr and a 5000 yr, respectively of charcoal morphologies-derived fire regime, pollen-based vegetation dynamics and stable isotope and testate amoebae-based climate reconstructions from boreal forests in central western Siberia, combined with fire-related functional traits of key boreal tree species. Compared to the trend over the 5000 yr period (mean fire return interval=FRI of 400 yr), our reconstructed mean FRI of 145 yr for the last five centuries is notably the shortest in the record. Most fires in this area tend to be surface, litter fires, although over the last centuries surface fires show an increased trend towards crowning. Frequent fires between 5000 and 4000 cal yr BP and 1500 cal yr BP to the present were concurrent with the dominance of invader species (primarily Betula) and fire endurer (mainly herbs) with prevalence of resisters (Pinus sylvestris, Pinus sibirica). Longer fire return intervals (up to 500 yr) between 4000 and 1500 cal yr BP were associated with the dominance of fire resisters with a considerable proportion of fire avoiders (Abies sibirica and Picea obovata). The rising number of fire episodes and the intensification of fire events over the past 1500 years have likely promoted fire-adapted plant communities (invaders and endurers) that can rapidly reach maturity, contributing to the reduction of avoider and resister species. This trend demonstrates that fire avoider species particularly fail to regenerate if the intervals between fire episodes are too short and thatan increasing number of fire episodes can drive land cover towards more fire-adapted plant communities. Our long-term perspective shows that the current fire regime lies significantly outside baseline conditions, which may drive future change in forest composition towards an increased prevalence of invader species. This study also contributes to an understanding of disturbance regimes in Pinus-Betula forests and considers the potential of tree species to adapt to new fire regimes.