EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

UKCP: Understanding uncertainty in future changes in precipitation extremes at convection-permitting scale

Giorgia Fosser1, Elizabeth Kendon1, Steven Chan2, and David Stephenson3
Giorgia Fosser et al.
  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (
  • 2Newcastle University, School of Engineering, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
  • 3Exeter University, Department of Mathematics, Exeter, UK

Convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide a better representation of sub-daily precipitation statistics and convective processes, both on climate and NWP time scales, mainly thanks to the possibility to switch off the parameterisation of convection. The improved realism of these models gives us greater confidence in their ability to project future changes in short-duration precipitation extremes.

The first 12-member ensemble of convection-permitting climate simulations over the UK was completed within the latest updates to the UK Climate Projections (UKCP). The 20-year long CPM simulations for present-day and end of century periods are nested in an ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations over Europe driven by a global climate model ensemble. In the driving ensembles, uncertain parameters in the model physics are varied within plausible bounds to sample uncertainty. Although no perturbations are applied directly to the CPMs, this project allow us to provide a first-ever estimate of uncertainty at convection-permitting scale and thus provide UK risk assessment studies with more reliable climate change projections at local and hourly scales.

Here we will present results looking at the uncertainty in future changes in hourly precipitation extremes across the CPM ensemble, and how this differs from the driving RCM ensemble.

How to cite: Fosser, G., Kendon, E., Chan, S., and Stephenson, D.: UKCP: Understanding uncertainty in future changes in precipitation extremes at convection-permitting scale, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-14870,, 2020


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