EGU2020-16892, updated on 12 Jun 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16892
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Changes in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO under global warming

Zixuan Jia1, Massimo Bollasina1, Chaofan Li2, Ruth Doherty1, and Oliver Wild3
Zixuan Jia et al.
  • 1School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (s1872969@ed.ac.uk)
  • 2Center for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 3Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland

The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is a prominent feature of the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation during boreal winter, which has a large influence on weather and climate of the Asian-Pacific region. At interannual time scales, the strength of the EAWM is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while the ENSO-EAWM relationship displays pronounced interdecadal variations associated with changes in the ENSO teleconnection pathways to East Asia. Using future transient simulations from the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), changes in the ENSO-EAWM relationship are examined at various global warming levels during the 21st-century. Results indicate that this relationship will enhance from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weaken until +3°C, strongly impacted by changes in anthropogenic forcing with internal variability playing a negligible role. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO under global warming. Both the climatological EAWM strength and the ENSO-related anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region contribute to changes in the ENSO-EAWM relationship. Furthermore, anthropogenic aerosols are also found to play a major role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).

How to cite: Jia, Z., Bollasina, M., Li, C., Doherty, R., and Wild, O.: Changes in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO under global warming , EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-16892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16892, 2020

Comments on the presentation

AC: Author Comment | CC: Community Comment | Report abuse

Presentation version 1 – uploaded on 04 May 2020 , no comments