Estimating regional to global fresh-brackish-salt groundwater occurrence to support future projections

Coastal areas, including deltas, are hotspots for population growth and economic development. The rising demand for fresh water that results from these developments has resulted in increased rates of groundwater pumping and an associated enhanced risk of groundwater salinization. Future sea-level rise, climate change and surface sealing due to urbanisation are likely to further increase salinization risk in the near future. In order to correctly project the future fate of fresh groundwater resources in coastal areas under climate and socio-economic change, a correct estimate of the current fresh-brackish-salt groundwater occurrence is imperative. The reason for this is that future salinity projections are very sensitive to initial conditions, due to the large inertia of variable-density groundwater systems. Here, we make a case that estimating the current fresh-brackish-salt groundwater distribution by itself is a major challenge. The presence of conductivity contrasts in coastal areas, the past occurrence of sea-level transgressions and the aforementioned system inertia makes that traditional estimation methods such as interpolations between in-situ salinity observations or equilibrium (steady-state) modelling approaches are incapable of producing sufficiently realistic fresh-brackish-salt groundwater distributions. Using examples from the Rhine-Meuse delta, the Nile delta and the global coast, we show that advancements in airborne geophysics and high-resolution paleo-groundwater modelling may be key to providing distributions that are both realistic and accurate.