Quantitatively assessment and application of climate change risk

Risk assessment of climate change is a base for adaptation. Quantitative methods are the key step for the risk assessment. This study tries to establish a quantitative methodology for assessment of risks from climate change through elements of the dangerousness of risk causing factors, the exposure and vulnerability of risk bearing bodies, and their interrelations. In this study, risks were divided into abrupt hazard risk and gradual hazard risk. Quantified risk calculating models were established with the damage degrees from regression of historical hazard losses, vulnerability curve construction. Then risk assessment was done on three main extreme events, heat-wave, drought and flood. According to the current status and needs, this study projects the future risks of climate change under different climate scenario. The method was applied in China and West Africa.