On the Ocean Mixed Layer influence on the genesis of Mediterranean Tropical-Like cyclones

The Mediterranean basin is the formation site of a vast number and type of cyclones. Among these, we can occasionally identify intense vortices showing tropical characteristics, called Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC) or MEDIcanes (Mediterranean Hurricane). Their development has been studied in several case studies, showing the influence of synoptic scale upper level forcings and mesoscale features, such as the sea surface temperature and the characteristics of the air masses on the formation area. The importance of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) consists in modulating the intense latent and sensible heat fluxes, which control the development of the TLC. For tropical cyclones, one of the most studied factors in recent years is the ocean heat content in the formation basin of these storms. We plan here to extend this analysis to TLC. Besides innovative studies with coupled atmosphere-waves-ocean numerical models, a simpler approach for investigating the sole effect of the ocean heat content consists of adopting a simplified ocean (1-Dimensional) description by varying the local characteristics of the Ocean Mixed Layer (OML). In this work we use the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting system) model, in standalone (atmospheric) mode, with 3 km grid spacing, forced with GFS-GDAL (0.25°x0.25° horizontal resolution) and SST initialization provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset. Three case studies of TLC are examined here, namely ROLF (06-09/11/2011), ILONA (19-21/01/2014) and NUMA (11-20/11/2017). The ocean is simulated with an OML approach, with SST updated at each iteration as a function of the atmospheric heat fluxes and with an average mixed layer deph (MDL) provided by the MFS-CMEMS dataset. For each TLC studied, the MDL is modified by increasing and decreasing its depth by 50% and increasing and decreasing its lapse rate by 50%. The results show how the structure of the MDL influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure and precipitation both in terms of quantity and location. These outcomes suggest that, as for hurricanes, also for MEDICANES the heat content of the mass of seawater plays a fundamental role in their intensification, suggesting further studies also in a climate change perspective.