Effect of climate warming on the mixed layer depth in lakes

The surface mixed layer in lakes is where phytoplankton grow and where most of the primary production occurs. Knowledge of the thickness of the mixed layer is essential to estimate for instance primary productivity and to interpret remote sensing measurements, because it determines the mean light supply and indicates how homogeneous the water column is. Modelling studies, primarily in the ocean, have concluded that the mixed layer will shoal as a result of climate warming, but the empirical evidence does not support this. Here we seek to determine how climate change affects the mixed layer thickness and mean underwater irradiance in lakes. We use an ensemble modelling approach to simulate mixed layer depth in 3 warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) in about 50 lakes across the globe using the hydrodynamic model Flake forced by four downscaled global climate models. Results indicate that warming has little direct effect on the mixed layer depth. Mean underwater light in the mixed layer was nevertheless projected to increase as a result of the global radiation increases in the global climate models.