Power usage in the transport sector – potential, costs and greenhouse gas abatement of different well-to-wheel pathways

The increase of variable renewable energy sources (VRE), i.e. wind and solar power, may lead to a certain mismatch between power demand and supply. At the same time, in order to decarbonise the heat and transport sectors, power-based solutions are often seen as promising option, through so-called sector coupling. At times when VRE power supply exceeds demand, the surplus power could be used for producing liquid and gaseous electrofuels. The power is used for electrolysis, producing hydrogen, which can in turn be used either directly or combined with a carbon source to produce hydrocarbon fuels.

Here, we analyse the potential development of surplus power for the case of Germany, at an ambitious VRE expansion until 2050 and perform a cost analysis of electrofuels at different production levels using sorted residual load curves. These are then compared to biofuels and electric vehicles with the aid of an optimisation model, considering both cost- and greenhouse gas (GHG)-optimal options for the main transport sectors in Germany.

We find that, although hydrocarbon electrofuels are more expensive than their main renewable competitors, i.e. biofuels, they are most likely indispensable in addition for reaching climate targets in transport. However, the electrofuel potential is constrained by the availability of both surplus power and carbon. In fact, the surplus power potential is projected to remain limited even at currently ambitious VRE targets for Germany and carbon availability is lower in an increasingly renewable energy system unless direct air capture is deployed. In addition, as the power mix is likely to contain fossil fuels for decades to come, electrofuels based on power directly from the mix with associated conversion losses would cause higher GHG-emissions than the fossil transport fuel reference until a very high share of renewables in the power source is achieved. In contrast, electric vehicles are a more climate competitive option under the projected power mix with remaining fossil fuel fractions, due to a superior fuel economy and thereby lower costs and emissions.

As part of the assessment, we quantify the greenhouse gas abatement costs for different well-to-wheel pathways and provide an analysis and recommendations for a transition to sustainable transport.