EGU2020-3782
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

Michael Wehner1, Peter gleckler2, and Jiwoo Lee2
Michael Wehner et al.
  • 1Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, United States of America (mfwehner@lbl.gov)
  • 2Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, United States of America

Using a non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value statistical method, we calculate selected extreme daily precipitation indices and their 20 year return values from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate models over the historical and future periods. We evaluate model performance of these indices and their return values in replicating similar quantities calculated from multiple gridded observational products. Difficulties in interpreting model quality in the context of observational uncertainties are discussed. Projections are framed in terms of specified global warming target temperatures rather than at specific times and under specific emissions scenarios. The change in framing shifts projection uncertainty due to differences in model climate sensitivity from the values of the projections to the timing of the global warming target. At their standard resolutions, we find there are no meaningful differences between the two generations of models in their quality or projections of simulated extreme daily precipitation.

How to cite: Wehner, M., gleckler, P., and Lee, J.: Evaluation and projection of long period return values of extreme daily precipitation in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-3782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-3782, 2020

Comments on the presentation

AC: Author Comment | CC: Community Comment | Report abuse

Presentation version 1 – uploaded on 02 May 2020 , no comments