Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework
- 1University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (joshua.dorrington@physics.ox.ac.uk)
- 2Lake Street Consulting Ltd
- 3European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
Increasingly, operational forecasting centres are producing sub-seasonal forecasts, targeted at lead times of 3-6 weeks. These aim to fill the gap between conventional 2-week weather forecasts and longer term seasonal outlooks. However it is often difficult for end-users to know how these sub-seasonal forecasts can be best utilised, and how skilful they are for predicting variables of real world interest.
Much prior work on sub-seasonal forecasts has focused on assessing skill scores for large-scale smooth fields of mid- or upper-tropospheric variables, or else has looked at heavily time-averaged quantities. How to extend the lessons of these studies to user applications is not always obvious.
We take a more applied approach, focused on the chaotic and variable weather of Western Europe. We use sub-seasonal temperature forecasts alongside real-world French energy price and demand data in order to directly calculate the financial value of subseasonal forecasts to users in the energy sector. Using this new, real-world framework we make an estimate of cost-loss ratios and so can compare to the results of a simpler potential economic value model.
How to cite: Dorrington, J., Finney, I., Weisheimer, A., and Palmer, T.: Quantifying the usefulness of European subseasonal forecasts using a real-world energy-sector framework, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5358, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5358, 2020.