EGU2020-5555
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5555
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

How fast to turn around: preventing tipping after a system has crossed a climate tipping threshold

Paul Ritchie, Peter Cox, and Jan Sieber
Paul Ritchie et al.
  • University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics, and Physical Sciences, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (paul.ritchie@exeter.ac.uk)

A classical scenario for tipping is that a dynamical system experiences a slow parameter drift across a fold tipping point, caused by a run-away positive
feedback loop. We study what happens if one turns around after one has crossed the threshold. We derive a simple criterion that relates how far the parameter exceeds the tipping threshold maximally and how long the parameter stays above the threshold to avoid tipping in an inverse-square law to observable properties of the dynamical system near the fold. We demonstrate the inverse-square law relationship using simple models of recognised potential future tipping points in the climate system. 

How to cite: Ritchie, P., Cox, P., and Sieber, J.: How fast to turn around: preventing tipping after a system has crossed a climate tipping threshold, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-5555, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5555, 2020

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