EGU2020-7676
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7676
EGU General Assembly 2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Using PRIMAVERA high-resolution global climate models for European windstorm risk assessment in present and future climates for the (re)insurance industry

Julia Lockwood, Erika Palin, Galina Guentchev, and Malcolm Roberts
Julia Lockwood et al.
  • Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (julia.lockwood@metoffice.gov.uk)

PRIMAVERA is a European Union Horizon2020 project about creating a new generation of advanced and well-evaluated high-resolution global climate models, for the benefit of governments, business and society in general. The project has been engaging with several sectors, including finance, transport, and energy, to understand the extent to which any improved process understanding arising from high-resolution global climate modelling can – in turn – help with using climate model output to address user needs.

In this talk we will outline our work for the finance and (re)insurance industries.  Following consultation with members of the industry, we are using PRIMAVERA climate models to generate a European windstorm event set for use in catastrophe modelling and risk analysis.  The event set is generated from five different climate models, each run at a selection of resolutions ranging from 18-140km, covering the period 1950-2050, giving approximately 1700 years of climate model data in total.  High-resolution climate models tend to have reduced biases in storm track position (which is too zonal in low-resolution climate models) and windstorm intensity.  We will compare the properties of the windstorm footprints and associated risk across the different models and resolutions, to assess whether the high-resolution models lead to improved estimation of European windstorm risk.  We will also compare windstorm risk in present and future climates, to see if a consistent picture emerges between models.  Finally we will address the question of whether the event sets from each PRIMAVERA model can be combined to form a multi-model event set ensemble covering thousands of years of windstorm data.

How to cite: Lockwood, J., Palin, E., Guentchev, G., and Roberts, M.: Using PRIMAVERA high-resolution global climate models for European windstorm risk assessment in present and future climates for the (re)insurance industry, EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4–8 May 2020, EGU2020-7676, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7676, 2020

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Presentation version 2 – uploaded on 04 May 2020
Added title slide and updated one reference
  • CC1: Comment on EGU2020-7676, Thomas Röösli, 07 May 2020

    Dear Julia,

    Thanks for the interesting presentation. The change in storm intensity with climate change over Europe can differ between climate models. What change in wind gust speed for a future climate is represented in your proposed dataset?

    Can you communicate a time plan, when the dataset will become available?

    Best,

    Thomas Röösli - ETH Zürich - thomas.roeoesli@usys.ethz.ch

    • AC1: Reply to CC1, Julia Lockwood, 08 May 2020

      Dear Thomas,

      Thank you for your question.  Unfortunately, due to the school closures in the UK and childcare commitments, we have not had time to analyse the future event set as originally planned.  However, I hope the work will be completed in the coming months and we're aiming to publish the results in a paper.

      The data release is also behind schedule, but hopefully it will be released by this autumn, definitely before the end of 2020.  We have had initial discussions with Oasis LMF about the event set being hosted there, otherwise it will be available on request.  We will advertise the availability by email lists and at future conferences.

      Best wishes,

      Julia

Presentation version 1 – uploaded on 29 Apr 2020 , no comments