Degrading permafrost threatens Arctic nature and built environment

Arctic earth surface systems are undergoing unprecedented changes, with permafrost thaw as one of the most striking examples. Permafrost is critical because it controls ecosystem processes, human activities, and landscape dynamics in the north. Degradation (i.e. warming and thawing) of permafrost is related to several hazards, which may pose a serious risk to humans and the environment. Thaw of ice-rich permafrost increases ground instability, landslides, and infrastructure damages. Degrading permafrost may lead to the release of significant amounts of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and threatens also biodiversity, geodiversity and ecosystem services. Thawing permafrost may even jeopardize human health. Consequently, a deeper understanding of the hazards and risks related to the degradation of permafrost is fundamental for science and society.

To address climate change effects on infrastructure and human activities, we (i) mapped circumpolar permafrost hazard areas and (ii) quantified critical engineering structures and population at risk by mid-century. We used observations of ground thermal regime, geospatial environmental data, and statistically-based ensemble methods to model the current and future near-surface permafrost extent at ca. 1 km resolution. Using the forecasts of ground temperatures, a consensus of three geohazard indices, and geospatial data we quantified the amount and proportion of infrastructure elements and population at risk owing to climate change. We show that ca. 70% of current infrastructure and population in the permafrost domain are in areas with high potential for thaw of near-surface permafrost by 2050. One-third of fundamental infrastructure is located in high hazard regions where the ground is susceptible to thaw-related ground instability. Owing to the observed data-related and methodological limitations we call for improvements in the circumpolar hazard mappings and infrastructure risk assessments.

To successfully manage climate change impacts and support sustainable development in the Arctic, it is critical to (i) produce high-resolution geospatial datasets of ground conditions (e.g., content of organic material and ground ice), (ii) develop further high-resolution permafrost modelling, (iii) comprehensively map permafrost degradation-related hazards, and (iv) quantify the amount and economic value of infrastructure and natural resources at risk across the circumpolar permafrost area.