Structural reconstruction, fault parameterization, and slip rate analysis in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy): implications for the Plio-Pleistocene tectonic activity of long-lived offshore buried thrusts.

The northern Apennines foredeep is characterized by a Plio-Pleistocene tectonic activity whose driving structures (thrust faults and related anticlines) are always buried by a high amount of syntectonic sediments, both onshore (Po Plain) and offshore (Adriatic Sea), thereby leaving subtle or none apparent signatures in the topo-bathymetry. Compared to the rest of Italy, this area has a relatively moderate earthquake hazard, but historical reports and instrumental recordings testify for significant seismicity. Seismological analyses of recent sizeable earthquakes (e.g., the Mw 6.1, Emilia earthquake in 2012) confirmed that the seismic activity is mainly due to the outermost northern Apennines buried thrusts. In this work, we reconstructed and parameterized the 3D geometry of such buried faults in an offshore sector just south of the Po River delta by interpreting a dense network of 2D seismic reflection profiles. The availability of two regional seismic reflection profiles, coupled with a detailed reconstruction of Plio-Pleistocene horizons, allowed us to restore the deformation cumulated by these thrusts. Our analysis was aimed at (1) establishing the age of inception of the main crustal thrusts, (2) reconstruct the main Plio-Pleistocene tectonic events affecting the study area, and (3) calculate the Plio-Pleistocene slip rates at different time slices and reporting them through probability distribution functions that take into account the uncertainties associated with horizon ages and restoration parameters. Our results show that the Plio-Pleistocene tectonic activity is variably distributed on different thrust faults and decreases exponentially over time after the Gelasian. The analysis performed on the most recent reflectors suggests that a low but not negligible tectonic activity characterizes the main thrusts in the studied region in the last 4-500 ka and hints at a residual activity that may last until the present.