Projected changes in wind wave directional spectra and their impact on coastal processes

The assessment of the projected changes in wave climate due to climate change has been subject of study during the last two decades (Morim et al., 2018), largely due to the severe impacts these changes may have on coastal processes such as flooding and erosion. The wind wave climate is fully described by the sea surface elevation spectrum, which represents the distribution of energy resulting from the contributions of several superimposed waves with different periods and directions. Nevertheless, to this day the standard approach to address the future behavior of wind waves is based on the use of integrated wave parameters (e.g. significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction) as a representation of the full spectrum. In this study, we analyze the changes in wave energy from directional spectra discretized in 24 directions and 32 frequencies in a number of locations distributed across all ocean basins, shedding light on the added value that an assessment based on the full spectrum offers with respect to the standard approach. In addition, the ESTELA method (Pérez et al., 2014) is applied to ease the understanding of the changes obtained in wave energy at the locations of study.

The spectral approach helps to assess the projected change in the energy of each wave system that reach a specific location. Results demonstrate that the use of integrated wave parameters can mask important information about the sign, magnitude and uncertainty of the actual projected changes in mean wave climate due to the offset of the expected variations in the different wave systems that integrate the spectrum. It is especially relevant at locations where an increase in the wave period or wave energy is hidden by the application of the standard approach, as these parameters are proven to play a key role in coastal processes. In addition, we reach relevant conclusions about the future behavior of swell systems. For instance, a robust increase in the energy carried by swells generated below 40°S can be observed in every ocean basin and both hemispheres, even beyond 30°N. Similarly, a decrease in the energy carried by northern swells can be observed close to the equator.