NH5.4

Every year the Caribbean Sea faces the passage of powerful tropical cyclones that generate coastal extreme sea levels with potential strong and hazardous impacts. In this work we simulate the storm surges and wind-waves induced by a set of over 1000 tropical cyclones over the Caribbean Sea that are representative of the present-day climate and that have been extracted from a global database of synthetic hurricanes spanning a 10,000-year period. The atmospheric forcing fields, built from the synthetic tropical cyclones, are used to feed a fully coupled hydrodynamic-wave model with high resolution (~1 km) along the continental and island coasts. Given the large number of events modelled, the outputs allow detailed statistical analyses of the magnitude and mechanisms of coastal extreme sea levels as well as the identification of most exposed areas to both storm surges and large wind-waves.

How to cite: Martín, A., Amores, A., Orfila, A., and Marcos, M.: Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7564, 2021.

Two hazardous typhoons, Maysak and Haishen, in September 2020 produced extreme sea level oscillations in the Sea of Japan. These typhoons generated three different types of sea level variations: 1) storm surges (with typical periods from several hours to 1.5 days), 2) extreme seiches (with periods from a few minutes to several tens of minutes), and 3) storm-generated infragravity waves (with periods up to 3-5 min). The data from eleven tide gauges on Russian, Korean, and Japanese coasts were used to examine the properties of these oscillations. The relative contribution of the three separate sea level components and their statistical characteristics (duration, wave heights, and periods) were estimated. The periods of the main eigen modes of individual bays and harbours in the Sea of Japan were estimated based on spectral analysis of longterm background records at the corresponding sites. The results of wavelet analysis show the frequency properties and the temporal evolution of individual sea level components. We found that high-frequency sea level oscillations at stations Preobrazheniye and Rudnaya Pristan have a “white noise” spectrum, caused by the dominance of infragravity waves. A high correlation was detected between the variance of high-frequency sea level oscillations at these stations and the significant wind wave height evaluated from ERA5 for this water area.

How to cite: Smirnova, D., Medvedev, I., Rabinovich, A., and Šepić, J.: Extreme sea level oscillations in the Sea of Japan caused by typhoons Maysak and Haishen in September 2020, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11077, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11077, 2021.

Extreme sea levels are known to hit the Adriatic Sea and to occasionally cause floods that produce severe material damage. Whereas the contribution of longer-period (T > 2 h) sea-level oscillations to the phenomena has been well researched, the contribution of the shorter period (T < 2 h) oscillations is yet to be determined. With this aim, data of 1-min sampling resolution were collected for 20 tide gauges, 10 located at the Italian (north and west) and 10 at the Croatian (east) Adriatic coast. Analyses were done on time series of 3 to 15 years length, with the latest data coming from 2020, and with longer data series available for the Croatian coast. Sea level data were thoroughly checked, and spurious data were removed. 

For each station, extreme sea levels were defined as events during which sea level surpasses its 99.9 percentile value. The contribution of short-period oscillations to extremes was then estimated from corresponding high-frequency (T < 2 h) series. Additionally, for four Croatian tide gauge stations (Rovinj, Bakar, Split, and Dubrovnik), for period of 1956-2004, extreme sea levels were also determined from the hourly sea level time series, with the contribution of short-period oscillations visually estimated from the original tide gauge charts.  

Spatial and temporal distribution of contribution of short-period sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea level in the Adriatic were estimated. It was shown that short-period sea-level oscillation can significantly contribute to the overall extremes and should be considered when estimating flooding levels. 

How to cite: Ruić, K., Šepić, J., Karlović, M., and Međugorac, I.: Estimating contribution of high-frequency sea-level oscillations to the extreme sea levels in the Adriatic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4602, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4602, 2021.

The potential impacts of extreme sea level events are becoming more apparent to the public and policy makers alike. As the magnitude of these events are expected to increase due to climate change, and increased coastal urbanization results in ever increasing stakes in the coastal zones, the need for risk assessments is growing too.

The physical conditions that generate extreme sea levels are highly dependent on site specific conditions, such as bathymetry, tidal regime, wind fetch and the shape of the coastline. For a low-lying country like Denmark, which consists of a peninsula and islands that partition off the semi-enclosed Baltic Sea from the North Sea, a better understanding of how the local sea level responds to wind forcing is urgently called for.

We here present a map for Denmark that shows the most efficient wind directions for generating extreme sea levels, for a total of 70 locations distributed all over the country’s coastlines. The maps are produced by conducting simulations with a high resolution, 3D-ocean model, which is used for operational storm surge modelling at the Danish Meteorological Institute. We force the model with idealized wind fields that maintain a fixed wind speed and wind direction over the entire model domain. Simulations are conducted for one wind speed and one wind direction at a time, generating ensembles of a set of wind directions for a fixed wind speed, as well as a set of wind speeds for a fixed wind direction, respectively.

For each wind direction, we find that the maximum water level at a given location increases linearly with the wind speed, and the slope values show clear spatial patterns, for example distinguishing the Danish southern North Sea coast from the central or northern North Sea Coast. The slope values are highest along the southwestern North Sea coast, where the passage of North Atlantic low pressure systems over the shallow North Sea, as well as the large tidal range, result in a much larger range of variability than in the more sheltered Inner Danish Waters. However, in our simulations the large fetch of the Baltic Sea, in combination with the funneling effect of the Danish Straits, result in almost as high water levels as along the North Sea coast.

Although the wind forcing is completely synthetic with no spatial and temporal structure of a real storm, this idealized approach allows us to systematically investigate the sea level response at the boundaries of what is physically plausible. We evaluate the results from these simulations by comparison to peak water levels from a 58 year long, high resolution ocean hindcast, with promising agreement.

How to cite: Andrée, E., Su, J., Drews, M., Dahl Larsen, M. A., Bendix Hansen, A., and Skovgaard Madsen, K.: What can idealized storm surge simulations tell us about worst case scenarios?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12284, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12284, 2021.

Many coral reef islands are low-lying, which in combination with population growth, sea level rise and possibly more frequent extreme weather events is likely to result in increased coastal risk (e.g. Storlazzi et al., 2015). On smaller scales of O(10 km) wave-driven coastal inundation can be accurately predicted with advanced models such as XBeach (Roelvink et al., 2009), at already high computational costs. For larger scales, larger number of islands, for scenario modelling, and for implementation in early warning systems, computationally faster methods are needed. Reduced physics models, which neglect some of the processes (e.g. non-hydrostatic pressure gradient term and viscosity), are a potential solution. However, their accuracy and the best method to force them has not been established.

In this research we propose a new methodology to model wave-driven flooding on coral reef-lined coasts. A look-up-table (LUT), composed of XBeach model runs, is combined with a reduced-physics model, SFINCS (Leijnse et al., 2021), to achieve high accuracy predictions at limited computational expense. The LUT consists of pre-run 1D XBeach simulations for several reef profiles from Scott et al. (2020), forced with different offshore wave and water level conditions. Wave conditions close to the shore as predicted by the LUT are used to force SFINCS which then simulates the wave runup, overtopping and flooding. These are forced in SFINCS using random wave timeseries from an interpolated parameterized wave spectrum following Athif (2020).

The accuracy of the method is investigated for 6 distinctive cross-shore profiles from Scott et al. (2020), for two wave scenarios (gentle swell and stormy conditions). Results of complete XBeach simulations are compared to LUT-SFINCS simulations with different boundary forcing locations. The sensitivity analysis shows that the preferred boundary location to initialize the SFINCS model is at a water depth between 0.5 m and 2.5 m, preferably shoreward of the reef edge. Errors introduced by the generated parameterized spectra lead to runup estimation errors of up to around 40% depending on reef geometry. The developed methodology will be applied to a case study of Majuro Island, the Republic of Marshall Islands, as proof of concept.

References

Athif, A. A. (2020). Computationally efficient modelling of wave driven flooding in Atoll Islands: Investigation on the use of a reduced-physics model solver SFINCS. Master’s thesis, IHE, the Netherlands.

Leijnse, T., van Ormondt, M., Nederhoff, K., and van Dongeren, A. (2021). Modeling compound flooding in coastal systems using a computationally efficient reduced-physics solver: Including fluvial, pluvial, tidal, wind-and wave- driven processes. Coastal Engineering, 163:103796.

Roelvink, D., Reniers, A., Van Dongeren, A. P., De Vries, J. V. T., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J. (2009). Modelling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands. Coastal engineering, 56(11-12), 1133-1152.

Scott, F., Antolinez, J. A. A., Mccall, R., Storlazzi, C., Reniers, A., and Pearson, S. (2020). Hydro-Morphological Characterization of Coral Reefs for Wave Runup Prediction. Frontiers in Marine Science, 7(May):1–20.

Storlazzi, C. D., Elias, E. P., and Berkowitz, P. (2015). Many atolls may be uninhabitable within decades due to climate change. Scientific reports, 5:14546.

How to cite: Bertoncelj, V., Leijnse, T., Roelvink, F., Pearson, S., Bricker, J., Tissier, M., and van Dongeren, A.: Efficient and accurate modeling of wave-driven flooding on coral reef-lined coasts: Case Study of Majuro Atoll, Republic of the Marshall Islands, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5418, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5418, 2021.

The assessment of the projected changes in wave climate due to climate change has been subject of study during the last two decades (Morim et al., 2018), largely due to the severe impacts these changes may have on coastal processes such as flooding and erosion. The wind wave climate is fully described by the sea surface elevation spectrum, which represents the distribution of energy resulting from the contributions of several superimposed waves with different periods and directions. Nevertheless, to this day the standard approach to address the future behavior of wind waves is based on the use of integrated wave parameters (e.g. significant wave height, mean wave period, mean wave direction) as a representation of the full spectrum. In this study, we analyze the changes in wave energy from directional spectra discretized in 24 directions and 32 frequencies in a number of locations distributed across all ocean basins, shedding light on the added value that an assessment based on the full spectrum offers with respect to the standard approach. In addition, the ESTELA method (Pérez et al., 2014) is applied to ease the understanding of the changes obtained in wave energy at the locations of study.

The spectral approach helps to assess the projected change in the energy of each wave system that reach a specific location. Results demonstrate that the use of integrated wave parameters can mask important information about the sign, magnitude and uncertainty of the actual projected changes in mean wave climate due to the offset of the expected variations in the different wave systems that integrate the spectrum. It is especially relevant at locations where an increase in the wave period or wave energy is hidden by the application of the standard approach, as these parameters are proven to play a key role in coastal processes. In addition, we reach relevant conclusions about the future behavior of swell systems. For instance, a robust increase in the energy carried by swells generated below 40°S can be observed in every ocean basin and both hemispheres, even beyond 30°N. Similarly, a decrease in the energy carried by northern swells can be observed close to the equator.

How to cite: Lobeto, H., Menendez, M., Losada, I. J., and Mazzaretto, O.: Projected changes in wind wave directional spectra and their impact on coastal processes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9476, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9476, 2021.

In coastal floodplains, high river flows and high coastal water levels can result in extensive flooding. Mechanisms of flooding play a crucial role in flood characteristics with distinctive differences in flood wave propagation pattern and geographical extent of inundation. Climate change is expected to alter these flood mechanisms. This paper presents an assessment of urban inundation due to a combined effect of multiple source flooding. Cork City, a coastal city in the south of Ireland, frequently subject to complex coastal-fluvial flooding is used as a case study to investigate changes in flood mechanisms, dynamics and extents due to climate change. The MSN_Flood was used to compute potential future inundation patterns for a range of climate scenarios under various hydrological conditions. Scenarios were based on estimates of current, medium-range and high-end projections of extreme river flows and sea levels. 

How to cite: Olbert, A. I. and Kirkpatrick, J. I.: Probability, mechanisms and impact of future coastal urban flooding., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1174, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1174, 2021.

Medicanes, for Mediterranean hurricanes, are mesoscale cyclones with morphological and physical characteristics similar to tropical cyclones. Although less intense, smaller and rarer than their Atlantic counterparts, Medicanes remain very hazardous events threatening islands and continental coasts within the Mediterranean Sea. The latest strong episode Medicane Ianos (September 2020), resulted in severe damages in Greece and several casualties. This work investigates the oceanic response to these extreme events along the Mediterranean coasts under present-day and future (21 st century) conditions. To this end, a coupled hydrodynamic-wave model is used to simulate both storm surges and wind-waves generation and propagation in the Mediterranean Sea at high resolution (~2 km) along the coastlines. A dataset of thousands of Medicanes synthetically generated from twenty global climate models and two reanalyses is used to derive the atmospheric forcing fields. Regional coastal risks assessment is performed for the present and future climate. We found increased coastal extreme sea levels in line to the reported changes in Medicane activity, with fewer events but of larger intensity projected by late 21 st century.

How to cite: Toomey, T., Amores, A., Marcos, M., Orfila, A., and Romero, R.: Coastal risks induced by Mediterranean hurricanes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11999, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11999, 2021.

An objective method for tracking pathways of cyclone centres over Europe was developed and applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis atmospheric data (1979-2014). The method was used to determine trajectories of those Mediterranean cyclones which generated extreme sea levels along the northern and the eastern Adriatic coast during the period from 1979 to 2014. Extreme events were defined as periods during which sea level was above 99.95 percentile value of time series of hourly sea-level data measured at the Venice (northern Adriatic), Split (middle eastern Adriatic) and Dubrovnik (south-eastern Adriatic) tide-gauge stations. The cyclone pathways were tracked backwards from the moment closest to the moment of maximum sea level up to the cyclone origin time, or at most, up to 72 hours prior the occurrence of the sea-level maximum.

Our results point out that extreme sea levels in Venice normally appear during synoptic situations in which a cyclone centre is located to the south-west and north-west of Venice, i.e., when it can be found over the Gulf of Genoa, or the Alps. On the contrary, extreme sea levels in Dubrovnik are usually associates with cyclone centres above the middle Adriatic, whereas floods in Split seem to appear during both above-described types of situations.

Occurrence times and intensity of cyclones and extreme sea-levels was further associated with the NAO index. It has been shown that the deepest cyclones and corresponding extreme floods tend to occur during the negative NAO phase.   

How to cite: Dević, T., Šepić, J., and Koračin, D.: The northern and the eastern Adriatic Sea floods: connecting the extreme sea-levels to cyclone pathways, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8201, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8201, 2021.

Extreme sea levels at the coast result from the combination of astronomical tides with atmospherically forced fluctuations at multiple time scales. Seiches, river floods, waves, inter-annual and inter-decadal dynamics and relative sea-level rise can also contribute to the total sea level. While tides are usually well described and predicted, the effect of the different atmospheric contributions to the sea level and their trends are still not well understood. Meso-scale atmospheric disturbances, synoptic-scale phenomena and planetary atmospheric waves (PAW) act at different temporal and spatial scales and thus generate sea-level disturbances at different frequencies. In this study, we analyze the 1872-2019 sea-level time series in Venice (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy) to investigate the relative role of the different driving factors in the extreme sea levels distribution. The adopted approach consists in 1) isolating the different contributions to the sea level by applying least-squares fitting and Fourier decomposition; 2) performing a multivariate statistical analysis which enables the dependencies among driving factors and their joint probability of occurrence to be described; 3) analyzing temporal changes in extreme sea levels and extrapolating possible future tendencies. The results highlight the fact that the most extreme sea levels are mainly dominated by the non-tidal residual, while the tide plays a secondary role. The non-tidal residual of the extreme sea levels is attributed mostly to PAW surge and storm surge, with the latter component becoming dominant for the most extreme events. The results of temporal evolution analysis confirm previous studies according to which the relative sea-level rise is the major driver of the increase in the frequency of floods in Venice over the last century. However, also long term variability in the storm activity impacted the frequency and intensity of extreme sea levels and have contributed to an increase of floods in Venice during the fall and winter months of the last three decades.

How to cite: Ferrarin, C., Lionello, P., Orlic, M., Raicich, F., and Salvadori, G.: Multiple drivers of extreme sea levels in the northern Adriatic Sea, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8727, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8727, 2021.

Most sandy coasts worldwide are under chronic erosion, which increasingly put at risk coastal communities. In the context of adaptation to climate change and sea-level rise (SLR), predictions of shoreline evolution patterns are critical for decision-making. Sandy shorelines are highly dynamic environments, which respond to multiple complex processes interacting at different spatial and temporal scales, making shoreline predictions challenging, especially on long time scales (decades and centuries). However, modelling shoreline predictions inherit uncertainties in the primary driver boundary conditions (e.g. sea-level rise and wave forcing) as well as uncertainties related to model assumptions and/or misspecifications of the physics. In this work, we analyze the uncertainties associated with shoreline evolution by 2100 of the high-energy, cross-shore transport dominated, sandy beach of Truc Vert (France).  Using  two equilibrium shoreline models based on different disequilibrium principles, and the Bruun Rule, we explicitly resolved wave-driven shoreline change produced continuous probabilistic predictions of the Truc Vert shoreline evolution to 2100 for two carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5 and 4.5), incorporating uncertainties related to SLR, depth of closure, and model free parameters. The shoreline models were forced with continuous wave projection time series, issued by the National Oceanography Center (UK) for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, based on a single global climate model.  We assigned a probability distribution to each uncertain input variable. For both shoreline models, an optimization algorithm was used to identify all the realistic combinations of model free parameters leading to a skillful hindcast against 8 years of in situ shoreline data. A Gaussian distribution was assigned to the yearly probabilistic SLR estimates based on SROCC to 2100, and depth of closure. We further addressed the relative impact of each source of uncertainty on the model results performing a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA). The results show that, for both RCP scenarios, shoreline response position during the first half of the century is mainly sensitive to the equilibrium model parameters, with the influence of SLR emerging in the second half of the century. The results also reflect the strong relation between the model parameters uncertainties and the interdecadal variability of wave conditions. Using a single wave time series, such variability and related chronology has a much stronger impact on shoreline change with the Splinter model than the Yates model, highlighting that the choice of the modelling approach is critical to future shoreline change estimates in changing wave climates. We also emphasize the need for more continuous wave projections in order to generate ensemble wave time series and include uncertainty in future wave conditions.

How to cite: D'Anna, M., Castelle, B., Idier, D., Rohmer, J., Le Cozannet, G., Thieblemont, R., and Bricheno, L.: Uncertainties in shoreline projections to 2100 at Truc Vert beach (France): Unravelling the role of sea-level rise and equilibrium model assumptions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1282, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1282, 2021.

Global mean sea-level rise and its acceleration are projected to aggravate coastal erosion over the 21st century, which constitutes a major challenge for coastal adaptation. Projections of shoreline retreat are highly uncertain, however, namely due to deeply uncertain mean sea-level projections and the absence of consensus on a coastal impact model. An improved understanding and a better quantification of these sources of deep uncertainty are hence required to improve coastal risk management and inform adaptation decisions. In this work we present and apply a new extra-probabilistic framework to develop shoreline change projections of sandy coasts that allows considering intrinsic (or aleatory) and knowledge-based (or epistemic) uncertainties exhaustively and transparently. This framework builds upon an empirical shoreline change model to which we ascribe possibility functions to represent deeply uncertain variables. The model is applied to two local sites in Aquitaine (France) and Castellón (Spain). First, we validate the framework against historical shoreline observations and then develop shoreline change projections that account for possible (although unlikely) low-end and high-end mean sea-level scenarios. Our high-end projections show for instance that shoreline retreats of up to 200m in Aquitaine and 130m in Castellón are plausible by 2100, while low-end projections revealed that 58m and 37m modest shoreline retreats, respectively, are also plausible. Such extended intervals of possible future shoreline changes reflect an ambiguity in the probabilistic description of shoreline change projections, which could be substantially reduced by better constraining SLR projections and improving coastal impact models. We found for instance that if mean sea-level by 2100 does not exceed 1m, the ambiguity can be reduced by more than 50 %. This could be achieved through an ambitious climate mitigation policy and improved knowledge on ice-sheets. 

How to cite: Thiéblemont, R., Le Cozannet, G., Rohmer, J., Toimil, A., Alvarez, M., and Losada, I. J.: Deep uncertainties in shoreline change projections: an extra-probabilistic approach applied to sandy beaches, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2142, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2142, 2021.

Salt marshes are widely recognised as ecosystems with high economic and environmental value. However, it is still unclear how salt marshes will respond to the combined impact of future sea-level rise and possible increases in storm intensity (Schuerch et al. 2013). This study investigates marsh resilience under the combined impact of various storm surge and sea-level scenarios by using a sediment budget approach. The current paradigm is that a positive sediment budget supports the accretion of salt marshes and, therefore, its survival, while a negative sediment budget causes marsh degradation (Ganju et al. 2015). The Ribble Estuary, North-West England, was used as test case, and the hydrodynamic model Delft3D was used to simulate the response of the salt marsh system to the above scenarios. We conclude that the resilience of salt marshes and estuarine systems is enhanced under the effect of storm surges, as they promote flood dominance and trigger a net import of sediment.  Conversely, sea-level rise threatens marsh stability, by promoting ebb dominance and triggering a net export of sediment. Ultimately, when storm surge and sea-level scenarios are combined, results show that storms with the highest intensities have the potential to counteract the negative impact of sea-level rise by masking its effects on the sediment budget.

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of the School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool.

References

Ganju, N.K., Kirwan, M.L., Dickhudt, P.J., Guntenspergen, G.R., Cahoon, D.R. and Kroeger, K.D. 2015. “Sediment transport-based metrics of wetland stability”. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 7992-8000.

Schuerch, M., Vafeidis, A., Slawig, T. and Temmerman, S. 2013. “Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise”. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 118(1), 84-96.

How to cite: Pannozzo, N., Leonardi, N., Carnacina, I., and Smedley, R.: Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise and increased storm intensity, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1294, 2021.

Sea level rise (SLR) is a well-documented aspect of anthropogenic climate change which is primary due to the thermal expansion of seawater and melting of ice caps and glaciers (1). Climate change is expected to exacerbate sea-level rise within the next century, much larger than the observations since the beginning of the recordings. Next to various natural hazards and extreme environmental events such as flooding, the sea level rise poses serious long-standing and possibly irreversible consequences on human timescales in coastal regions. For example, soil salinity is expected to increase near shorelines due to sea level rise. Soil salinization, referring to excess accumulation of salt in soil, is a global problem (2) adversely affecting many environmental and hydrologic processes such as terrestrial ecosystem functioning, water cycle and biodiversity. SLRs shift the saltwater-freshwater boundary in coastal regions which will increase the risk of soil salinization further inland. Considering the growing population living in coastal regions, SLR-driven soil salinization has a severe socio-economic impact posing significant threat to farmlands, wetlands, coastal marshes, forests and other ecosystems. Motivated by the importance of the interaction between SLR, climate change and soil salinization, this study aims to determine how the saltwater-freshwater interface moves under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios in coastal regions. Groundwater data of coastal wells, Digital Elevation Model’s and satellite images will be used to highlight areas under high risk of soil salinization. The results will enable us to quantify the possible extent of the soil salinization as a result of SLR under different climate scenarios with the associated socio-economic consequences. Such information could support decision making and sustainable resource management under different RCPs.

1. Moftakhari H.M., Salvadori G., AghaKouchak A., Sanders, B.F., Matthew, R.A. (2017). Compounding Effects of Sea Level Rise and Fluvial Flooding. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 114 (37), 9785-9790.

2. Hassani, A., Azapagic, A., Shokri, N. (2020). Predicting Long-term Dynamics of Soil Salinity and Sodicity on a Global Scale. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 117 (52) 33017-33027.

How to cite: Nevermann, H., AghaKouchak, A., and Shokri, N.: Sea-level rise driven soil salinization, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14453, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14453, 2021.