Spatial analysis of cancer distribution in Gomel and Mogilev oblasts of Belarus as a preliminary stage for revealing the provoking local factors

A series of maps using different GIS spatial analysis techniques were constructed to perform spatial analysis of the distribution of oncological diseases in Belorussia. Mapping was based on the data of the national cancer register, which contains considerable information of all cancer cases of different localization and allows separation of different sex and age groups of the population. Preliminary data verification showed a high variation of cancer cases in different areas. The second step of the research confirmed the high spatial heterogeneity of medical data when the maps characterizing different variation levels of cancer cases were made using a specialized GIS. After that, the regional zoning was carried out for the Gomel and Mogilev regions most subjected to the Chernobyl radionuclides fallout in Belarus and the areas with a significant difference in the level of general and localized cancer rates were separated. The general picture showed that the actual risk level of the oncological diseases (including those of different localization) spatially varies by four times or even more. Such a significant change in the frequency of occurrence of cancer cases of mans and women within limited areas univocally showed on the local factors that can provoke such an increase in morbidity. Considerable radioactive contamination after the Chernobyl accident within this area obvious could be such a factor. However, the obtained maps showed a high level of differentiation before the Chernobyl catastrophe and no definite correlation with radionuclide fallout maps. In any case, in our opinion, the revealed zones of enhanced cancer morbidity and those where the morbidity appeared to be minimal should become the objects of priority study. Those which represent the highest density of cancer cases need priority examination and prevention.

The study was partly funded by RFBR and BRFBR project #20-55-00012 and BRFBR project # Х20Р-386.