EGU22-10137, updated on 06 Feb 2023
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning

Luke Jenkins, Maggie Creed, Karim Tarbali, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Jeremy Phillips, Hugh Sinclair, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey
Luke Jenkins et al.
  • University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (

Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is increasing exposure to natural hazards, which are often exacerbated by climate change. We present the results of physics-based simulations for various flooding, earthquake, and debris-flow scenarios located in a region considered for future urban expansion. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is incorporated into some of the hazard scenarios. We show that a future urban area can be affected by: (1) multiple hazards at different locations; (2) multiple hazards at a particular location. We demonstrate that this information can be used to shape decision making around future social and built environment developments towards risk-informed future urban planning. In summary, this research demonstrates the importance of considering multiple hazards when designing disaster-resilient urban landscapes of tomorrow. 

How to cite: Jenkins, L., Creed, M., Tarbali, K., Muthusamy, M., Trogrlic, R. S., Phillips, J., Sinclair, H., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10137,, 2022.