NH10.1

NH10 EDI
Innovative approaches for multi-hazard risk assessments and their applications to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation 

This session aims to share innovative approaches to developing multi-hazard risk assessments and their components (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity), and to explore their applications to disaster risk reduction.

Effective disaster risk reduction practices and the planning of resilient communities requires the evaluation of multiple hazards and their interactions. This approach is endorsed by the UN Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. Multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessments look at interaction mechanisms among different natural hazards, and how spatial and temporal overlap of hazards influences the exposure and vulnerability of elements at risk. Moreover, the uncertainty associated with multi-hazard risk scenarios needs to be considered, particularly in the context of climate change and slow-onset hazards, such as Covid-19 and pandemics in general, characterized by dynamic changes in exposure and vulnerability that are challenging to quantify.

This session, therefore, aims to profile a diverse range of multi-hazard risk and impact approaches, including hazard interactions, multi-vulnerability studies, and multi-hazard exposure characterization. In covering the whole risk assessment chain, we propose that it will be easier to identify potential research gaps, synergies and opportunities for future collaborations.

We encourage abstracts which present innovative research, case study examples and commentary throughout the whole disaster risk cycle on (i) multi-hazard risk methodologies which address multi-vulnerability and multi-impact aspects; (ii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard risk management and inclusive risk-informed decision making and planning; (iii) methodologies and tools for multi-hazard disaster scenario definition and management for (near) real-time applications; (iv) cross-sectoral approaches to multi-hazard risk, incorporating the physical, social, economic, and/or environmental dimensions; (v) uncertainty in multi-hazard risk and multi-hazard impact assessment; (vi) evaluation of multi-hazard risk under future climate and slow-onset hazards, including pandemics; (vii) implementation of disaster risk reduction measures within a multi-hazard perspective.

Co-organized by CL3.2/HS13
Convener: Marleen de RuiterECSECS | Co-conveners: Stefano TerziECSECS, Faith Taylor, Annie Winson, Silvia De AngeliECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:47 (CEST), 15:10–18:30 (CEST)
 
Room 1.31/32

Session assets

Session materials

Presentations: Mon, 23 May | Room 1.31/32

Chairpersons: Marleen de Ruiter, Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi
13:20–13:25
13:25–13:26
13:26–13:33
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EGU22-11909
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Johanna Mård, Örjan Bodin, and Daniel Nohrstedt

Sweden is prone to various natural hazards, including wildfires, storms, floods, cloud bursts and landslides, which have caused considerable economic losses in the past. Natural hazard risk is also expected to increase in several regions in Sweden due to climate change. However, considerable knowledge gaps remain on how to effectively mitigate societal effects of multiple natural hazard events. Current risk assessments often focus on single hazards within distinct administrative boundaries whereas multi-hazard or compound events, which often transcend these boundaries, are rarely accounted for. This poses a problem – particularly in vulnerable geographical areas where the risk for compound events with significant societal impacts are high. Here we present a new project that will address this knowledge gap, with the aims to identify underlying factors of multi-hazard events in Sweden, and to investigate capacities among public and private actors to mitigate these impacts via effective collaboration. The first outcome is an integrated natural hazards assessment that reveals how climate-related natural hazard events have evolved over time and space in Sweden since the 1970s, and what areas have been most exposed to multi-hazard events. These results provide knowledge on the spatiotemporal distribution of natural hazard events, including compound events, which is critical when analysing their underlying drivers.

How to cite: Mård, J., Bodin, Ö., and Nohrstedt, D.: An integrated assessment of multi-hazard events in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11909, 2022.

13:33–13:40
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EGU22-332
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On-site presentation
Judith Claassen, James Daniell, Elco E. Koks, Timothy Tiggeloven, Marleen C. de Ruiter, and Philip J Ward

While the last decade saw substantial scientific advances in studies aimed at improving our understanding of natural hazard risk, research and policy commonly address risk from a single-hazard, single-sector perspective. Thus, not considering the spatial and temporal interconnections of these events. Single-hazards risk analyses are often inaccurate and incomplete when multi-hazard disasters occur, as the interaction between them may lead to a different impact than summing the impacts of single events. Therefore, the MYRIAD-EU project aim is to catalyse the paradigm shift required to move towards a multi-risk, multi-sector, systemic approach to risk assessment and management. In order to achieve this, the overall aim is that policy-makers, decision-makers, and practitioners will be able to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies across sectors, hazards, and scales. A key first step to achieving this aim is to create a greater understanding of realistic multi-hazard event sets that better examines statistical dependencies between hazard types. To do so, single hazards datasets for meteorological, geological, hydrological and biological events are explored using stochastic modelling and multivariate statistical methods, and create a dataset of potential coinciding hazard events at a global scale. By exploring these multi-hazard interconnections, we achieve a deeper understanding of the different types of multi-hazards events and their temporal and spatial interconnections. Furthermore, this dataset maps indirect, interregional, and cross-sectoral risk throughout the world. Moreover, the multi-hazards event sets will enable to simulate future conditions under climate change by incorporating the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as well as Socio-economic change using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).   

How to cite: Claassen, J., Daniell, J., Koks, E. E., Tiggeloven, T., de Ruiter, M. C., and Ward, P. J.: A Global Multi-hazard Perspective on Joint Probabilities of Historic Hazards , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-332, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-332, 2022.

13:40–13:47
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EGU22-89
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Harriet Thompson, Bruce D. Malamud, Joel C. Gill, and Robert Šakić Trogrlić

Achieving a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction in urban areas remains challenging. This requires understanding the breadth of single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships across various spatial and temporal scales that might impact a given urban area. Here we describe an approach to systematically map the single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships that have a potential to impact Kathmandu, Nepal, one of the focus cities of the UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Tomorrow’s Cities research hub. Using an existing classification of 21 natural hazard types (across six hazard groups: geophysical, hydrological, atmospheric, biological, space), we first searched for evidence of each of these occurring in or affecting Kathmandu. We used systematic mapping to find and select evidence, applying a simple Boolean search with keywords and reviewing publications across all years available on online databases before selecting evidence from 2010 onwards where available. The spatial boundary around Kathmandu was not specified, rather we chose evidence based on recorded or potential impacts in the city. When searches returned many results (i.e., over 100), we skimmed titles and abstracts for spatial and temporal occurrence to select up to 5 sources. We examined and integrated evidence from diverse sources, including academic literature, grey literature, traditional media (e.g., English language Nepali newspapers), global and national disaster databases and social media. This evidence was then used to assess potential multi-hazard interrelationships that may occur in Kathmandu. Using this blended evidence, we found 21 single hazard types that might impact Kathmandu. We found case study evidence for 11 interrelationship types that have had previous impact in Kathmandu with many more that are theoretically possible. The results illustrate the complexity of the hazard landscape, with many single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships potentially impacting Kathmandu. This knowledge can inform the development of dynamic risk scenarios, to use in planning and civil protection, thus strengthening multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction in Kathmandu.

How to cite: Thompson, H., Malamud, B. D., Gill, J. C., and Šakić Trogrlić, R.: Mapping single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in Global South urban areas: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-89, 2022.

13:47–13:54
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EGU22-1818
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Presentation form not yet defined
Anne Van Loon, Marlies Barendrecht, Ruben Weesie, Heidi Mendoza, Alessia Matanó, Johanna Koehler, Melanie Rohse, Marleen de Ruiter, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Philip Ward, Jeroen Aerts, Giuliano di Baldassarre, and Rosie Day

Droughts are long-lasting and have a range of cascading impacts on society. These impacts and their responses can influence the further development of the drought itself, but also continue into the period after the drought ended. Especially if society is hit by a next hydrological extreme event, heavy rainfall resulting in flooding, the effects of this may be increased or decreased by the preceding drought and its impacts and responses. We here present a review and a global assessment of cases of these events, based on scientific literature, NGO and governmental reports, and newspaper articles, to study the diversity of how drought affects flood risk. We find that the balance between the positive and negative effects of extreme rainfall after a long dry period is mostly dependent on the underlying vulnerability and the effect of specific responses, and is different for different countries, and for different sectors and groups in society. Based on our initial analysis of the collection of case studies, we see some emerging patterns. For example, in Europe, the USA and Australia, the highly managed water system with hard infrastructure and early-warning systems makes that in most cases the rainfall after drought are managed and adverse effects mitigated, but also lock-ins exist that can make feedbacks of either inaction or maladaptation result in increased economic losses. In Africa and Latin-America, with a fragile governance system, less hard infrastructure, and a more exposed population, extreme rainfall after drought brings relief and replenishment of water resources, but also increased impacts, conflict and displacement. Here, we hypothesise that impacts are unequally distributed in society, because of issues of power, access to land and water resources, inadequate soft infrastructures, etc. We will test this hypothesis with an in-depth qualitative study of local stakeholder knowledge of these human-water processes in selected case studies. The typology of drought-to-flood events that we developed can serve as a starting point for further research on the complexity of these cascading events.

How to cite: Van Loon, A., Barendrecht, M., Weesie, R., Mendoza, H., Matanó, A., Koehler, J., Rohse, M., de Ruiter, M., Mazzoleni, M., Ward, P., Aerts, J., di Baldassarre, G., and Day, R.: How drought affects flood risk: positive / negative effects and feedbacks in different cases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1818, 2022.

13:54–14:01
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EGU22-6010
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Cecilia I. Nievas, Laurens M. Bouwer, Morelia Urlaub, Alexey Androsov, Andrey Babeyko, Christian Berndt, Fabrice Cotton, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Jens Karstens, Heidrun Kopp, Danijel Schorlemmer, and Hui Tang

Extreme climatic and geophysical events pose a threat to societies and have the capacity to cause significant damage and losses whenever they occur, both in their immediate aftermath and in the medium- to long-term. Their consequences can be amplified even further when more than one event affects the same geographical areas within a short time. Be it cascading hazards, in which one event triggers the next, or simply hazards that happen to occur simultaneously (“compounding” hazards), estimation of their cumulative consequences is challenging because the action of one event affects the exposure and vulnerability to the next one. While the efforts from the research community to develop multi-hazard perspectives have increased considerably in recent years, multiple remaining challenges require strongly-coordinated efforts across different disciplines and areas of expertise to tackle them with the most appropriate tools.

With a multidisciplinary team of scientists from four different Helmholtz research centres in Germany, we have started working on the CASCO project (2022-2024), in which we will develop an integrated risk workflow for CAScading and COmpounding hazards in COastal urban areas by focusing on a series of events occurring around Mount Etna (Italy). The case-scenario starts with a strong earthquake that triggers a submarine collapse at the eastern flank of Mount Etna, an area already known to be unstable, and both the earthquake and the landslide trigger a tsunami that hits the coasts of Sicily and Calabria. Almost concomitantly, a heatwave or heavy rainfall happens to affect the same regions, further stressing the population that had been affected by the combined effects of the earthquake and tsunami.

The project will be directed towards the modelling of the cascading earthquake, landslide and tsunami events, the compounding heatwave and rainfall, as well as their immediate impacts in terms of cumulative damage and casualties. Moreover, the medium- to long-term response in urban dynamics and the effect of these extreme events on the economic development of the affected populations will be explored.

By focusing on a tangible scenario, CASCO will not only tackle the challenges associated with bringing together the whole risk chain (which will be valid beyond our case-study) but also produce outcomes that help increase awareness of such extreme events and the need for societies to develop suitable strategies to strengthen their resilience and improve their disaster response.

How to cite: Nievas, C. I., Bouwer, L. M., Urlaub, M., Androsov, A., Babeyko, A., Berndt, C., Cotton, F., Gómez Zapata, J. C., Karstens, J., Kopp, H., Schorlemmer, D., and Tang, H.: Risk workflow for CAScading and COmpounding hazards in COastal urban areas: The CASCO Project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6010, 2022.

14:01–14:08
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EGU22-6551
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Veruska Muccione, Raphael Neukom, Christian Huggel, and Nadine Salzmann

The interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales typically causes compound climate and weather extreme events. Compound concurrent hot day and night extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are of greater concern for health than individual hot days or hot nights. Continuous day and nighttime heatwaves can exacerbate human discomfort and therefore increase the risks of heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, little is known about the evolution of such events in the observed and projected climate. Four compound event types, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events were introduced in the literature that facilitates the selection of the proper approaches in the study of compound extreme events. The impact of a single or the combination of multiple types could shape more severe extreme events. In our study, we considered the temporally compounding and multivariate types and used climate observations (1981-2020) and high-resolution bias-corrected climate model scenarios of Switzerland (CH2018). Our analyses show that the average frequency and intensity of compound consecutive hot days and nights increase in five big cities of Switzerland until 2100 under RCP4.5. We projected 1.83 ± 0.07 (days decade−1) for Basel, 1.57 ± 0.1 (days decade−1) for Bern, 2.34 ± 0.13 (days decade−1) for Geneva, 2.55 ± 0.17 (days decade−1) for Lugano, and 1.93 ± 0.12 (days decade−1) for Zürich. Moreover, we found an increase in the intensity of summertime (April-October) compound hot extremes days and night in Basel (0.28 ± 0.03 °C decade−1), Bern (0.23 ± 0.02°C decade−1), Geneva (0.37 ± 0.04 °C decade−1), Lugano (0.4 ±0.07°C decade−1), and Zürich (0.44 ± 0.05°C decade−1).

How to cite: Ashraf Vaghefi, S., Muccione, V., Neukom, R., Huggel, C., and Salzmann, N.: Increasing compound concurrent hot day and night extremes in five big cities of Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6551, 2022.

14:08–14:15
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EGU22-956
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Marta López-Saavedra, Joan Martí, Jose Luis Rubio, and Karim Kelfoun

Extreme geohazards (volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis) have the potential to inflict cascading effects whose associated risks are difficult to predict and prepare for. Thus, these events are generally not taken into account in hazard assessment. Anticipating the occurrence of such extreme events is thus key if our life-styles are to remain safe and sustainable. Volcanic islands are often the source of complex successions of disastrous events, as is evident from any examination, for instance, of the geological record of regions such as Hawaii, the Canary Islands, Reunion and Indonesia. The island of Tenerife in the Canary Archipelago is an excellent example of where cascading extreme hazards have occurred several times in the past and could occur again in the future. A cascading sequence involving a caldera-forming eruption, high-magnitude seismicity, mega-landslides and tsunamis occurred at least twice during the construction of this island. In order to understand the possible consequences of such processes if they were to reoccur, we simulated the extent and potential impact of a multiple, extreme geohazard episode similar to the last recorded one that took place on the island of Tenerife around 180 ka. If this event were to occur today, the PDCs resulting from the collapse of the eruptive column would devastate nearly the entire island. The caldera collapse would generate high-magnitude seismicity that would severely affect the central part of the island, corresponding to the caldera of Las Cañadas and its walls, the Icod Valley, the NE and NW rifts, and Bandas del Sur in the southeast. Seismic shocks could trigger a mega-landslide in the current Icod valley that would mobilise a thickness of about 500 m. The impact of this mass against the ocean would generate a first tsunami wave up to 200 m high that would sweep the coasts of the north of Tenerife in less than 10 minutes. This is probably the most catastrophic scenario for this region, and it sets a maximum limit to the range of situations that may occur in Tenerife in order to design a better risk management in this island without exceeding with minor events or falling short in case of events of greater impact. The implications of such a disastrous succession of events are analysed at local, regional and global scales, and the results obtained are discussed within the framework of disaster risk-reduction policies.

How to cite: López-Saavedra, M., Martí, J., Rubio, J. L., and Kelfoun, K.: Cascading Effects of Extreme Geohazards on Tenerife (Canary Islands), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-956, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-956, 2022.

14:15–14:25
14:25–14:26
14:26–14:33
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EGU22-9946
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On-site presentation
Aditi Dhakal, Suresh Chaudhary, Ramesh Guragain, Vibek Manandhar, Roberto Gentile, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

Exposure to multiple hazards can create many risks, including some related to human life and physical infrastructure. Therefore, it is important to develop approaches for characterising and controlling future urban development in a risk-informed manner. Towards this aim, this study develops a future risk-sensitive exposure-mapping methodology using the Khokana area of Kathmandu (Nepal) as a case study. Characterisation of future exposure is carried out on the basis of literature reviews, a thorough review of three future urban development options prepared by the Kathmandu Valley Development Authority (KVDA), discussions with experts, and data obtained from recent detailed building and road assessment surveys of the existing urban system. This characterisation is then used, along with future multi-hazard intensity predictions, to create a risk-informed masterplan layout of buildings and infrastructure that appropriately balances the demands of an expanding population. The developed methodology forms the backbone of the urbanisation component within the Tomorrow’s Cities Decision Support Environment, and can be generally applied to risk-sensitive urban planning in any context.

How to cite: Dhakal, A., Chaudhary, S., Guragain, R., Manandhar, V., Gentile, R., Cremen, G., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Mapping future exposure to multiple hazards in Tomorrow’s Cities: the Khokana, Kathmandu, Nepal case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9946, 2022.

14:33–14:40
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EGU22-9704
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On-site presentation
Roberto Gentile, Vibek Manandhar, Gemma Cremen, Luke Jenkins, Emin Mentese, Ramesh Guragain, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

During their expansion, cities are increasingly exposed to various risks from different natural hazards. Moreover, different drivers of these risks may evolve over time due to several endogenous and exogenous factors. In the context of proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design, capturing the above dynamic effects is crucial. This study focuses on modelling the time-dependent physical fragility and vulnerability (i.e., the likelihood of damage and losses as a function of a hazard intensity measure) of building stocks. Given a set of relevant hazards for a case-study region, this research combines existing methodologies and datasets to 1) match the relevant building classes (i.e., construction types) in the case-study database with existing fragility and/or vulnerability models; 2) use state-of-the-art numerical and/or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available, supplementing existing models; 3) identify and account for the factors affecting the time dependency of the above fragility/vulnerability models (e.g. ageing of buildings, the interaction of different hazards); 4) create a Geographic Information System (GIS) vulnerability database for integration within a broader risk model. The proposed approach offers a reasonable trade-off between the refinement of the considered time-dependent vulnerability assessment and the expected computational complexity of a building portfolio multi-hazard risk model. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the realistic urban prototype “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

How to cite: Gentile, R., Manandhar, V., Cremen, G., Jenkins, L., Mentese, E., Guragain, R., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Characterising the dynamic physical vulnerability of Tomorrow’s Cities to multiple natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9704, 2022.

14:40–14:47
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EGU22-12794
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Antonia Sebastian and Kathie Dello

Recent extreme weather events have drawn attention to how multiple climate disasters can combine to create negative social and economic consequences across sectors. Perhaps the most concerning of these multi-hazard scenarios, is the combination of heat stress, characterized as high temperature and humidity, and severe flooding, which can result in devastating socioeconomic and health consequences for communities. For example, heat stress may precede a flood event, amplifying its impact (e.g., British Columbia (2021)) and leading to increased fatalities and injuries from the event; on the other hand, infrastructure outages caused by severe flooding may increase the vulnerability of individuals to heat stress following the event, as is often the case after tropical cyclones (e.g., Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Maria (2017)). Managing future climate risks will require a better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of compound heat and flood stress and the space and time scales over which they interact. As a case study, this research develops a framework for measuring community exposure to flood and heat extremes applied to North Carolina, USA. Leveraging parcel-scale records of insured flood damage, we generate a spatially- and temporally-explicit database of historical flood extents since 1970, and couple it to a reanalysis of extreme heat events measured in terms of Wetbulb index. We then identify spatial and temporal clusters of extreme heat and flood events in North Carolina. This work will enable improved vulnerability and climate risk assessment and enable community to identify more resilient pathways to climate adaptation. The work is part of a larger Carolinas Collaborative on Climate, Health and Equity (C3HE) project which focuses on the cooccurrence of extremes and aims to measure the socioeconomic and health outcomes in partnership with Carolina communities.

How to cite: Sebastian, A. and Dello, K.: Mapping community exposure to extreme heat and flood hazards in the Carolinas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12794, 2022.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Stefano Terzi, Silvia De Angeli, Marleen de Ruiter
15:10–15:17
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EGU22-192
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Virtual presentation
Marleen de Ruiter, Giovanni Votano, and Anaïs Couasnon

The occurence and impacts of disasters are increasing in many parts of the world. The increased complexity of disaster risk due to climate change, expected population growth and the increasing interconnectedness of disaster impacts across communities and economic sectors demonstrates the need to improve our ability to understand and model the impacts of consecutive disasters. These consecutive disasters can be described as disasters whose impacts overlap temporally and spatially while recovery from an earlier disaster is still underway. Several challenges affect our ability to account for the impacts of consecutive disasters and multi-hazard interactions, including extensive data requirements and a common focus on single-hazard risk.  

 

Incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics of hazard, exposure and vulnerability is key to understanding drivers of risks and their interactions. In this study, we focus on the Philippines and generate an extensive dataset of multi-hazard events based on observed time series of disasters. We illustrate the potential applications of our dataset with an analysis of the inter-arrival time between hazard events and their impacts. The Philippines is located along the ‘Ring of fire’ and is one of the world’s most at risk countries of natural hazards includingearthquakes, tropical cyclones, landslides, and flooding. The study is carried out for the time period 1980-2019 and at two spatial scales: national and provincial. This dataset is further analysed to document the socio-economic impacts of consecutive disasters as well as the interdependencies and dynamics between multi-hazard events. This spatially and temporally consistent dataset can be used as input for future risk modelling effort to integrate the dynamics and impacts of consecutive disasters.

How to cite: de Ruiter, M., Votano, G., and Couasnon, A.: A dataset for multi-risk analysis in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-192, 2022.

15:17–15:24
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EGU22-12811
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Virtual presentation
Kathrin Renner, Piero Campalani, Alice Crespi, Roberta Dainese, Katharina Enigl, Klaus Haslinger, Massimiliano Pittore, Matthias Plörer, Stefan Steger, Fabrizio Tagliavini, Michaela Teich, and Marc Zebisch

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as late autumn and winter storms are being increasingly observed in southern Europe and particularly in the Alps, where they threaten environmental and socio-economic systems. An example is the 2018 Vaia (also known as Adrian) storm (Oct 28-Nov 04), which strongly affected Italy, Austria, France and Switzerland. Over the past decades several damaging storms strongly impacted (i.e., caused adverse consequences on assets, people, infrastructure or the environment) mostly those countries on the northern side of the Alps (e.g., Vivian 1990, Lothar 1999, Gudrun 2005, Kyrill 2007). The Vaia storm however affected the southern side, downing more than 8 million cubic meters of forests and causing extensive damage due to a combination of multiple compounded hazards including heavy rain, flooding and landslides, and strong winds. The event caused 12 fatalities and an economic loss exceeding 3 billion Euro. This storm has been considered exceptional yet could foreshadow multi-hazard phenomena whose frequency and intensity are likely to be influenced by climate change. In such conditions, currently available risk assessment and prevention tools may prove inadequate, particularly on a cross-border level and in vulnerable mountainous regions. Therefore, there is a need to provide decision makers and stakeholders with improved and harmonised tools and standardised frameworks to conduct efficient (climate) risk assessments for cross-border areas. Current and future impacts need to be systematically investigated to adopt prevention and disaster risk reduction measures for the mitigation of inherent risks. In its first year the TRANS-ALP project analysed the occurrence of severe weather events that can be classified as extreme and their specific features in the cross-border area between Austria and Italy (Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol and Veneto). Furthermore, a systematic review of the mechanisms in place to collect impact, damage and loss data has been conducted to allow for a better conceptualisation of the different risk pathways that come into play in case of intense storms. Our findings indicate a noticeable increase of extreme weather conditions that can lead to adverse consequences, also from a systemic perspective, and a complex interplay of damaging factors and chained impacts that can extend for years after the occurrence of the generating events. The findings also highlight the importance of a comprehensive multi-hazard and transdisciplinary approach to storm risk assessment within a framework harmonising Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) instances. In this contribution the first results and insights of the project will be presented and discussed.

The described research activities have been carried out within the framework of the DG-ECHO project TRANS-ALP funded by the European Union (Grant Agreement 101004843).

How to cite: Renner, K., Campalani, P., Crespi, A., Dainese, R., Enigl, K., Haslinger, K., Pittore, M., Plörer, M., Steger, S., Tagliavini, F., Teich, M., and Zebisch, M.: Multi-hazard, cross-border storm risk assessment in the Alps. First insights from the TRANS-ALP project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12811, 2022.

15:24–15:31
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EGU22-6931
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Antoine Dille, Olivier Dewitte, Jente Broeckx, Koen Verbist, Andile Sindiso Dube, Jean Poesen, and Matthias Vanmaercke

Extreme rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones can have devastating impacts along the cyclone path. In mountainous regions, these rainfalls may trigger up to thousands of landslides, themselves feeding destructive debris-rich floods impacting downstream valleys sometimes over tens or hundreds of kilometres. Such compound events were observed in the mountains of eastern Zimbabwe alongside Cyclone Idai in March 2019. Hitting an area of high population vulnerability and exposure, this event had very-high human and geomorphologic impacts in the region. In the framework of the UNESCO project BE-RESILIENT Zimbabwe (funded by World Bank and managed by UNOPS), we analysed the consequences of the landslides associated with this event in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe (~8000 km²). Aiming at a rapid evaluation in a data-scarce region, we built on existing tools and open access satellite remote sensing and GIS data to obtain an exhaustive inventory of the spatial extent of the impacted area, and ultimately an assessment of the population exposure in the region. We mapped over 14 000 (mostly shallow) landslides associated with this single event. Alongside a high population vulnerability, the extreme impacts of the landslides were associated with the very large mobility – up to kilometre-long runout/deposition areas are found – of the landslides. To account for this, we distinguish three types of processes (zones) in our inventory, susceptibility, and exposure analyses: landslide source/depletion, landslide runout and debris-rich floods. This discrimination is key for apprehending the hazard imposed by landslides in the study area, and finally for properly evaluating the population exposure to this hazard. While this work aims primarily at guiding land use planning, mitigation, restoration, and prevention in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe, it also offers a case for the use of simple yet powerful approaches to assess the impacts of an extreme event and the exploitation of the astonishing amount of quality open access data now available for every corner of the globe.   

How to cite: Dille, A., Dewitte, O., Broeckx, J., Verbist, K., Sindiso Dube, A., Poesen, J., and Vanmaercke, M.: The impacts of an extreme event: inventory, susceptibility, and exposure to landslides and debris-rich floods following Cyclone Idai in two mountainous districts of Zimbabwe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6931, 2022.

15:31–15:38
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EGU22-547
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco Koks, Hans de Moel, Jasper Verschuur, Oliver Wing, Jeroen Aerts, and Philip Ward

Critical infrastructures (CI) play an essential role in the day-to-day functioning of societies and economies. They refer to the array of physical assets required for the operation of the complex infrastructure network, which include energy grids, waste systems, and transportation networks. At the same time, impacts of natural hazards highlight the importance of improving our understanding on the natural hazard risk to these infrastructures. CI have evolved in large interconnected networks, whereby disruption of one asset may quickly propagate into widespread consequences – even outside an exposed area. The disruption of the services provided by CI have large potential to seriously hamper the daily activities of societies and economies that depend on them, as well as the recovery in the aftermath of an disruptive event.

To date, however, scientific literature on the potential global asset damages to CI induced by multi-hazards remain limited. Modelling assessments that combine information on hazard intensities and extents, exposure of infrastructure and the vulnerability of these exposed assets are crucial to improve our understanding of infrastructure that are directly at risk to multi-hazards. In this study, we provide first global estimates of multi-hazard risk to CI systems under current climate conditions. To this end, we assess: (1) the global exposure of CI to coastal and fluvial flooding, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides; and (2) quantify the potential asset damages as a consequence of these multi-hazards.

We represent the infrastructure network by seven overarching CI systems: energy, transportation, telecommunication, water, waste, education and health. A total of 42 infrastructure types (e.g. hospitals, power towers, wastewater treatment plants) are selected from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and categorized under these overarching CI systems. The high-detailed spatial data for infrastructure is combined with hazard data to derive the exposure of infrastructure to the various hazards. Moreover, we develop a vulnerability database for critical infrastructure based on the current body of literature to translate the exposure into asset damages.   

It is urgently needed to build robust and resilient infrastructure, so that they are able to cope with current and future natural hazards. Therefore, risk information should systematically be included for infrastructure planning, and the protection of the most vulnerable and critical assets needs to be improved. Limiting the direct impact of natural hazards on exposed assets will result in economic and social benefits that go beyond direct infrastructure damage.

How to cite: Nirandjan, S., Koks, E., de Moel, H., Verschuur, J., Wing, O., Aerts, J., and Ward, P.: Multi-hazard risk assessment of critical infrastructure at the global scale, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-547, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-547, 2022.

15:38–15:45
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EGU22-4118
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Chiara Arrighi, Marco Tanganelli, Vieri Cardinali, Maria Teresa Cristofaro, Mario De Stefano, and Fabio Castelli

The need for a shift from single to multi-risk analysis is widely recognized in international agreements, however the different multidisciplinary aspects, hazard metrics, data requirements and resolutions make quantitative multi-hazard and multi-vulnerability assessment rarely practiced. This work aims at describing a multi-risk assessment including present and mitigation scenarios and multi-risk resilience for historical art cities where the ability to recovery from a disaster passes through cultural heritage and related economic activities. Earthquakes and floods are considered to introduce a multi-risk workflow for buildings based on common metrics for exposure, vulnerability, and risk and a dynamic resilience model to simulate the post-event recovery. The method is applied to the historical city center of Florence (Italy), which is exposed to low-probability events and renowned for its unique cultural heritage. The application of the method suggests that the estimation of direct physical damages for earthquakes and floods requires a different characterization of vulnerability parameters. The resilience to earthquakes and floods shows significantly different recovery times that are linked to the severity of losses. The results of the application to the historical city center Florence show interesting differences in the spatial distribution of multi-risk, mostly depending on the evolution of the constructive typologies form the Middle-Ages to the XX century but also on the anthropic alteration of terrain morphology.  Further research would be needed to finding synergies in multi-risk mitigation and to better understand resilience to cascade risks.

Arrighi, C., Tanganelli, M., Cristofaro M.T., Cardinali, V., Marra, A.M., Castelli, F., De Stefano M.: Multi risk assessment in a historical city, Natural hazards, doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-05125-6

How to cite: Arrighi, C., Tanganelli, M., Cardinali, V., Cristofaro, M. T., De Stefano, M., and Castelli, F.: Multi-risk analysis, mitigation and resilience in historical cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4118, 2022.

15:45–15:55
15:55–15:56
15:56–16:03
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EGU22-12597
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Virtual presentation
Andrea Prota, Mauro Dolce, Claudia Morsut, Domingos Xavier Viegas, Miguel Almeida, Chiara Casarotti, Daniela Di Bucci, Francesca Giuliani, Maria Polese, and Nicola Rebora

The last years have demonstrated the complex interplay and impacts that hazards can have on people’s lives, livelihoods and health, especially when multiple adverse events occur at the same time. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 provides a solid foundation for disaster risk management (DRM) by specifically calling for multi-hazard and solution-driven research to address gaps, obstacles and interdependencies of disaster risks. However, most of the practices in DRM still adopt a single-hazard approach, which may not be sufficient for addressing the social, economic, educational, and environmental challenges of multi-hazard risk scenarios. Besides, questions remain about whether disaster risk is actually treated in a science-policy context, as demanded in the Sendai Framework, thus operating in the overlapping space of scientific research, political decision-making and public action. The large number of actors involved in, and affected by, multi-risk disasters make it harder to transfer knowledge into risk management decisions and set a two-way process for communicating such decisions and for collecting feedback from stakeholders. To face these challenges, the project ROADMAP (European observatory on disaster risk and crisis management best practices) aims to establish a European “Doctrine on disaster risk and crisis management”, funded on the cooperation among the scientific community and the DRM authorities. The project is developed by diverse specialized institutions from Italy (The Consortium Italian Centre for Risk Reduction “CI3R” and the Italian Civil Protection Department “ICPD”), Portugal (Association for the Development of Industrial Aerodynamics “ADAI”) and Norway (University of Stavanger). To achieve its goal, the project is identifying good practices in multi-hazard risk scenarios, by singling out the experiences in EU Member States and beyond the EU borders. Emphasis is given to the cumulative hazards that countries have had to face over the past two years, characterized by the spread of a global health emergency induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. Good practices are selected accounting for their capacity to produce results in the diverse DRM phases, as they stand out in terms of effectiveness, reach, feasibility, sustainability, and transferability. Such practices are not intended as static instruments, but rather as a guidance to be adapted if the needs of the users change and/or conditions in the application field evolve. This contribution will present the preliminary results of the research project and discuss how to create an efficient multi-hazard disaster management, focusing on a solution explorer platform collecting the good practices. When analysed closely it becomes apparent that there is a need for reinforcing actions dealing with multi-hazard disasters and for documenting successful stories and lessons learned within a bottom-up approach. By and large, it is envisaged that ROADMAP will contribute to increase access to information on DRM and disaster risk reduction (DRR) by systematically collecting, reviewing and analysing past and ongoing experiences and making them readily available and usable to communities and practitioners. The provision of good-practice guidance about a broad range of structural and non-structural risk management measures enables sharing information on how to overcome the obstacles and increasing the understanding of DRM solutions.

How to cite: Prota, A., Dolce, M., Morsut, C., Viegas, D. X., Almeida, M., Casarotti, C., Di Bucci, D., Giuliani, F., Polese, M., and Rebora, N.: Good practices in disaster risk and crisis management for civil protection purposes: an integrated multi-hazard risk approach, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12597, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12597, 2022.

16:03–16:10
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EGU22-8460
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On-site presentation
Claire Burke, James Brennan, Hamish Mitchell, Laura Ramsamy, Markela Zeneli, and Kamil Kluza

With ever increasing risks and impacts from climate change, there is an urgent need for adaptation information which is relevant and useful to policy makers, businesses and the general public. At Climate X we use an interdisciplinary, impacts-motivated approach to adaptation; combining multiple climate and hazard models to give a holistic view of risk, and engaging end-users at every stage. Our first version product can project the risks and impacts of climate change-related pluvial and fluvial flooding, extreme heat, landslides, subsidence, and sea level rise, all at street level UK-wide. We quantify these risks and the financial costs they could incur under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios out to 2080. We deliver risk and impact assessments via an easy-to-use interface, along with relevant and decision-able risk summaries. Aligning robust science at scale with user requirements and expectations is not without its challenges. I will outline our approach to multi-hazard climate risk modelling, and discuss some of the successes and challenges we have had in developing a tool which is aligned with the needs of stakeholders, businesses and other end users.

How to cite: Burke, C., Brennan, J., Mitchell, H., Ramsamy, L., Zeneli, M., and Kluza, K.: Climate X: an interdisciplinary approach to projecting multiple climate-related risks and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8460, 2022.

16:10–16:17
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EGU22-9686
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Virtual presentation
Gemma Cremen and the Tomorrow's Cities Early Career Risk Working Group

Numerous approaches to multi-hazard risk modelling and quantification have already been proposed in the literature and/or are well established in practice. However, most of these procedures are designed to focus on risk in the context of current static exposure and vulnerability and are therefore limited in their ability to support decisions related to the future, as yet partially unbuilt, urban landscape. This work outlines an end-to-end risk modelling framework that explicitly addresses this specific challenge, forming the computational engine of the innovative Tomorrow’s Cities decision support environment. The framework is designed to consider the multi-hazard risks of tomorrow’s urban environment, using a simulation-based approach to rigorously capture the uncertainties inherent in future projections of exposure as well as physical and social vulnerability. The framework also advances the state-of-practice in future disaster risk modelling by additionally: (1) providing a harmonised methodology for integrating physical and social impacts of disasters that facilitates flexible characterisation of risk metrics beyond physical damage/asset losses; and (2) incorporating a participatory, people-centred approach to risk-informed decision making. It can be used to support decision making on policies related to future urban planning and design, accounting for various stakeholder perspectives on risk. The framework is showcased using the physical and social environment of Tomorrowville, an expanding synthetic city that has been specifically designed to capture distinct dynamic features of developing cities as part of the Tomorrow’s Cities project. 

How to cite: Cremen, G. and the Tomorrow's Cities Early Career Risk Working Group: A State-of-the-Art Approach to Modeling Future Multi-Hazard Risk, supporting People-Centred Decision Making, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9686, 2022.

16:17–16:24
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EGU22-12300
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Virtual presentation
John McCloskey, Mark Pelling, Gemma Cremen, Carmine Galasso, Ramesh Guragain, and Vera Bukachi

This talk introduces the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenge Research Fund (GCRF) Urban Disaster Risk Hub, the “Tomorrow’s Cities” project. Working internationally, the ultimate goal of the Hub is to reduce disaster risk for the poor and most marginalised in tomorrow’s cities by facilitating a transition from reactive crisis management to proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design. Against a backdrop of ever-increasing human populations, urbanisation, social inequality, and climate change, this ambition is critically time-sensitive.

This talk specifically discusses the development of a state-of-practice decision support environment (DSE) that advances beyond the limits of current conventional risk models by placing knowledge co-production at the heart of risk-informed decision-making. Through a democratisation of the concept of risk, we explore understandings of risk that recognise the life experiences of the poor and most marginalised social groups. The DSE explicitly incorporates these diverse understandings to enable the iterative assessment of different policies, urban plans, and interventions in terms of their disaster-related impacts on future economic, environmental, and social objectives cooperatively agreed with relevant stakeholders. These assessments are underpinned by interdisciplinary open-source tools and processes that include: state-of-the-art physics-based multi-hazard and physical vulnerability models, innovative methods for harmonising physical and social sciences, and rigorous capacity-strengthening and knowledge exchange strategies.

How to cite: McCloskey, J., Pelling, M., Cremen, G., Galasso, C., Guragain, R., and Bukachi, V.: A Novel Decision Support Environment for Risk Informed Urban Planning in Tomorrow’s Cities , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12300, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12300, 2022.

16:24–16:31
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EGU22-10137
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On-site presentation
Luke Jenkins, Maggie Creed, Karim Tarbali, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Jeremy Phillips, Hugh Sinclair, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is increasing exposure to natural hazards, which are often exacerbated by climate change. We present the results of physics-based simulations for various flooding, earthquake, and debris-flow scenarios located in a region considered for future urban expansion. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is incorporated into some of the hazard scenarios. We show that a future urban area can be affected by: (1) multiple hazards at different locations; (2) multiple hazards at a particular location. We demonstrate that this information can be used to shape decision making around future social and built environment developments towards risk-informed future urban planning. In summary, this research demonstrates the importance of considering multiple hazards when designing disaster-resilient urban landscapes of tomorrow. 

How to cite: Jenkins, L., Creed, M., Tarbali, K., Muthusamy, M., Trogrlic, R. S., Phillips, J., Sinclair, H., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10137, 2022.

16:31–16:38
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EGU22-5875
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On-site presentation
Carla Sciarra, Massimo Dragan, Francesco Laio, Roberto Mezzalama, Luca Ridolfi, and Cristian Villata

The world is currently witnessing a rapid exacerbation of the effects of climate change on anthropic and environmental systems. Through the latest Assessment Report 6, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and so the EU with the Climate Change Adaptation strategy) has launched an urgent call to action to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies, to improve the resilience of these systems. Climate models are complex, requiring multi-disciplinary knowledge about climatology, physics, hydrology, hydraulics, mathematics and statistics, among others, to be conceived and implemented. Complexity is not limited to the model preparation and functioning, but it extends to the interpretation of the outputs by the users. Models’ assumptions and the uncertainties related to the outcomes pose an issue of accessibility and usability in the short period, with consequences on the decision-makers' (corporations, and governments) ability to correctly address the issues at hand.
Several requirements to conduct climate risk assessment have been and are being developed by governmental and non-governmental organizations, particularly for infrastructure projects, and this is creating a demand for new services besides the traditional engineering and scientific services. Golder Associates is a global consulting firm providing services to governments and corporations, with a particular emphasis on the energy and infrastructure sectors. Golder has seen an increase in demand for Climate Risk Assessment services, requiring up-to-date climate data and projections to determine the current and future exposure, hazard, and vulnerability to climate change of its clients’ assets and activities. The firm stands as an example of the challenges in translating the results and uncertainties of climate models and data into adaptation and mitigation strategies, often leading to an increase in uncertainties in major capital investments.
To address this issue, we are developing a decision-support toolbox named CLOUDS (CLimate OUtputs for Decision Support) to help identify and calculate a set of key performance indicators and variables. The aim of CLOUDS is to provide a more straightforward representation of the complexity of the climate models’ outputs, still maintaining the accuracy of the estimates of climate-change effects but addressing the needs of decision-makers. CLOUDS consist of methodologies and routines, derived from the available suite of global circulation models, a set of indicators useful to decision-makers in preparing climate risk assessment analysis of existing assets and future infrastructure projects. The indicators are chosen considering their ability to define the exposure, hazards, and vulnerability to climate change in various contexts, and their connection with the output of the models. The advantage of creating such a toolbox in cooperation and collaboration with a consultancy firm stands in the opportunity to test and adapt the toolbox on a wide range of projects in different business sectors, geographic conditions, and sizes. Therefore, this allows us to study the effectiveness of CLOUDS and by comparing its performances in terms of time and cost with projects using other decision-making tools. Finally, CLOUDS fosters the transfer of knowledge between the academic, the governmental, and the business communities, required to face the consequences of climate change. 

How to cite: Sciarra, C., Dragan, M., Laio, F., Mezzalama, R., Ridolfi, L., and Villata, C.: CLOUDS: A toolbox for decision support and climate risk, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5875, 2022.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Silvia De Angeli, Stefano Terzi, Marleen de Ruiter
17:00–17:07
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EGU22-8911
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Stefano Terzi, Silvia de Angeli, Davide Miozzo, Lorenzo Stefano Massucchielli, Fabio Carturan, Joerg Szarzynski, and Giorgio Boni

The long-lasting Covid-19 pandemic emergency that the world has been experiencing for more than two years is dramatically challenging all national emergency management systems. For the first time in recent history, our society has been dealing with a global slow-onset disaster, whose emergency phase is lasting for such an extended period, with varying levels of intensity, even with well-defined cycles. Furthermore, the pandemic has interacted with other disasters that occurred during the last years all over the world (e.g., the earthquake in Croatia, the tropical cyclone Harold, or the devastating floods in Western Europe including Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands) underlining the compound and cascading nature of disasters. The complex conditions of Covid-19 (and of slow-onsets in general) and their temporal and spatial overlaps with other natural and man-made hazards have highlighted the limitations of the traditional Disaster Risk Management Cycle (DRMC) to deal with complex multi-hazard risk events.

Our research aims to identify and provide evidence of the main limitations of the current DRMC paradigm when dealing with slow-onset risk events considering the potential interactions with other hazards which lead to the creation of complex multi-hazard risk conditions.

Existing weaknesses of the current DRMC are investigated starting from the lessons learned during the Covid-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have considered and analysed data provided by the Italian Red Cross on the management of past and ongoing emergencies including the Covid-19 pandemic. We identified those critical risk management conditions and negative feedback loops triggered or exacerbated by slow-onset risks and multi-hazard risk events. In particular, our results indicate: (i) an initial phase shift between the actual pandemic emergency conditions (i.e. intensive care units occupancy) and the Italian Red Cross emergency response (i.e. number of emergency operators), showing the need for an adaptation phase when dealing with long-onset hazard risks such as pandemics; (ii) a reduction of the coping capacity (for all the hazards) due to the number of resources deployed to manage the Covid-19 emergency; (iii) a reduction of preparedness activities (including, e.g. training or exercises), due to the continuous emergency phase imposed by Covid-19, which will result in an overall weakening of the risk management system.

The analysis has thus highlighted the need for a revised Disaster Risk Management framework, in which prevention, response, and recovery/rehabilitation operate simultaneously rather than sequentially in complex multi-hazard risk scenarios.

Finally, our study provides insights and lessons learned from the management of the current pandemic seen through the lens of a multi-hazard risk perspective that can be transferred to other slow-onset hazards such as droughts. These results call for improvements of risk management plans within the current national/regional civil protection mechanisms as well as international humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the ultimate need for regional coordination and collaboration.

How to cite: Terzi, S., de Angeli, S., Miozzo, D., Massucchielli, L. S., Carturan, F., Szarzynski, J., and Boni, G.: Learning from the Covid-19 pandemic to advance multi-hazard risk management: a critical analysis of the Italian Red Cross emergency management data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8911, 2022.

17:07–17:17
17:17–17:18
17:18–17:25
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EGU22-4467
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Elena Raffetti, and Elena Mondino

The salience of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, have plausibly influenced how people characterize and assess multiple hazards. In this study, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden by integrating the results of nationwide surveys with information about the occurrence of hazardous events. These included more than 4,000 participants and were conducted in three different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic (August 2020, November 2020 and August 2021), corresponding to various levels of infection rates. In line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic, we found that people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. In both countries, individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Moreover, notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat. Lastly, we found that public perceptions of multiple hazards are deeply intertwined. These outcomes do no only increase our knowledge on the way in which global crises and hazardous events shape public risk perception across different contexts, but also have the potential to inform communication strategies aiming to reduce disaster risk while supporting climate change adaptation.

How to cite: Di Baldassarre, G., Raffetti, E., and Mondino, E.: Multiple hazards and public risk perceptions under COVID-19, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4467, 2022.

17:25–17:32
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EGU22-100
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ECS
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On-site presentation
soheil mohammadi, Davide Miozzo, Giorgio Boni, and Silvia De Angeli

This work aims to improve existing Early Warning Systems (EWSs) assessment tools in appraising multi-hazard risk including natural hazards and infectious diseases epidemics or pandemics. The improved EWS assessment tool is applied in four Eastern Partnership countries through the development of a questionnaire, in the framework of the EU-funded PPRDEAST3 project. The analysis of the results of the questionnaire allowed identifying a series of lessons learned to be factored into a revision of the EWSs towards a permanent state of multi-hazard risk.

Because of the spread of the COVID-19, every country has been encountering challenges in several sectors. In addition to socioeconomic impacts, the declined capacities, especially in the health sector, led to changes in priorities for allocation of the resources in the short term and alteration of the development pathways of governments in the long term.

Furthermore, the long-lasting nature of the pandemic has increased the possibility of the concurrence of other natural hazards during the spread time of the virus. In this multi-hazard risk condition, civil protection organizations have to consider extra countermeasures for response to prevent the outbreak of the disease, including restrictions in sheltering and evacuation procedures.  

In the proposed approach, a conceptual model for multi-hazard EWSs, including natural hazards and infectious diseases, based on literature review and experts’ opinion, has been developed and used to derive a new set of indicators useful to understand current EWSs pandemics and multi-hazard risk capabilities.

The final assessment tool is obtained by integrating the new indicators with the previous ones already present in the EWS assessment tool developed by CIMA Foundation. The tool consists of five groups of indicators, four (already present) assessing the traditional EWS pillars, (i) disaster risk knowledge, (ii) detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting of the hazard and possible consequences, (iii) warning dissemination and communication, (iv) preparedness and response capabilities, and the last one added to assess (v) pandemics (specifically COVID19) and multi-hazard capabilities. Each group is divided into three to five sub-indicators.

Partner countries were asked to score each on a 0-5 scale in the way that 0 corresponds to "no steps have been made regarding that indicator", and 5 means "they fully meet the requirements relating to that indicator."

The results have been discussed and validated using extra open-source information to evaluate the accuracy of the assessment tool and the compatibility of the given scores with the real situation in partner countries. From this comparison, some biases in the responses have been observed. Therefore, to further improve the assessment tool, it is suggested to firstly, determine the criteria for each point that may give by the responders and secondly, ask for the evidence for each response.

Finally, the result of this research emphasized the necessity of the integration of infectious disease and natural hazard EWSs, the inclusion of the Health Ministry in the decision-making processes of the civil protection, and the coordination between slow onset and rapid onset hazard EWSs.

How to cite: mohammadi, S., Miozzo, D., Boni, G., and De Angeli, S.: Assessing multi-hazard risk assessment capabilities of Early Warning Systems considering potential interactions among pandemics and natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-100, 2022.

17:32–17:39
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EGU22-10244
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Maria Evangelina Filippi, Robert Sakic Trogrlic, Gemma Cremen, Alejandro Barcena, Emin Mentese, Roberto Gentile, Maggie Creed, Luke Jenkins, Manoranjan Muthusamy, Karim Tarbali, Aditi Dhakal, Vibek Manandhar, Miksen Rai, Sangita Adhikari, Mehmet Kalaycioglu, Bosibori Barake, Dilli Prasad Poudel, Carmine Galasso, and John McCloskey

The concept of disaster risk is multidisciplinary by nature. Responding to disasters and increasingly preventing new and reducing existing disaster risk has become the backbone of various disciplines. Yet, moving from various disciplinary perspectives to integrated approaches remains a fundamental challenge. This talk reflects on the experience of a group of early-career researchers, including physical scientists, engineers and social scientists from different organisations and countries, who came together to lead the refinement, operationalisation and testing of a risk-informed decision support environment (DSE) for Tomorrow’s Cities. Drawing on the notion of “boundary objects” and reflexive elicitation, members of the group explored enabling and hindering factors to interdisciplinary research across four case studies that unfolded between July-December 2021, namely: operationalisation process of the DSE; development of a testbed as a demonstration case for the implementation of the DSE; consolidation of frequently asked questions about the DSE; and elaboration of a multi-media communication tool for outreach to various audiences. The study argues that enablers of interdisciplinarity can be synthesised across a range of factors, including exogenous, governing, learning and attitudinal, and that diversity of boundary objects as convening spaces for disciplinary interaction can propel integration. It is further suggested that a similar rationale can be applied when moving towards co-producing knowledge with non-academic actors in a transdisciplinary manner. Strengthening the interdisciplinary capacities of early career researchers across disciplines and geographies is a fundamental step and promising pathway towards transformation.

How to cite: Filippi, M. E., Sakic Trogrlic, R., Cremen, G., Barcena, A., Mentese, E., Gentile, R., Creed, M., Jenkins, L., Muthusamy, M., Tarbali, K., Dhakal, A., Manandhar, V., Rai, M., Adhikari, S., Kalaycioglu, M., Barake, B., Poudel, D. P., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Unleashing the power of the interdisciplinary in disaster risk reduction: reflections from an early career researcher group developing a risk-informed decision support environment for Tomorrow’s Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10244, 2022.

17:39–17:46
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EGU22-214
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Julius Schlumberger, Marleen de Ruiter, Marjolijn Haasnoot, and Jeroen Aerts

While current adaptation planning approaches commonly focus on single hazards and individual sectors, a paradigm shift in decision-making is required to account for the increasingly interconnected world. Decision making support tools are needed to enable fair distribution of support and (increasingly) limited resources (i.e. space, financial means). No such integrated tools exist yet that account for dependencies, conflicts, and co-benefits between various stakeholders as well as the knowledge regarding dependencies and co-existence of various hazards and their joint impacts. This work provides a first conceptual framework of a decision-support tool in the context of adaptation planning in a multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder setting.

Decision-making processes for adaptation planning need to follow dynamically robust plans instead of a static optimal strategy to account for the deeply uncertain future. In fact, a myriad of uncertain or even unknown factors (i.e. climate change, socio-economic developments, technology advancement) might lead to very different future developments. Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a widely used systematic and practical approach for decision-making over time and strategic planning under uncertain conditions to design dynamic, adaptive plans covering short-term no-regret actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to take actions.

A systematic literature review was undertaken to analyze adaptation planning concepts across various (multi-)sectors and (multi-)hazard contexts. This literature review was used to identify underlying paradigms and relevant concepts in the field of scenario analysis, pathway modelling, and multi-objective decision-making useful for advancing the existing DAPP approach. Using a simple, synthetic multi-hazard, multi-sector case study, the tailored adaptation planning framework was tested for its robustness.

As a result, an advanced DAPP framework was developed. It accounts for several different physical processes playing a role in natural hazard impacts on human systems (i.e., different hazard types). Moreover, it accounts for spatial and temporal dependence of (different) hazards influencing coping capacities and the triggering space to take adaptation actions (compound, consecutive, aggregating impacts). Furthermore, the framework acknowledges 1) the diversity of stakeholders in an exposed system in terms of their vulnerability, objectives, coping capacities and contesting interests (e.g., limited resources or space), and 2) the diversity of driving actors of adaptation action within a system and the connectedness of decisions and implications on the system development. The framework uses information about the system and its boundaries, along with information about the available adaptation actions, information about the decision making process / motivation to take adaptation action, information about possible conflicts / dependencies within the decision space (with regards to objectives, adaptation actions, and other system elements) and implicit assumptions used to define the system (of systems). Using this framework, adaptation pathways – meaning sequence of adaptation actions – can be created and evaluated with regards to their robustness and performance in comparison to long-term visions.

How to cite: Schlumberger, J., de Ruiter, M., Haasnoot, M., and Aerts, J.: Conceptualizing an adaptation pathway model for multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder systems, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-214, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-214, 2022.

17:46–17:53
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EGU22-10895
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Emin Yahya Menteşe, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Ekbal Hussein, Harriet Thompson, Emine Öner, Aslıhan Yolcu, and Bruce D. Malamud

Istanbul is a large urban area exposed to many natural hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, tsunami, flooding, and drought. In addition to the potential risk from these single hazards, their interrelationships can  amplify overall risk, potentially overwhelming the capacity of governments, communities, and systems limits. Here, in order to investigate how multi hazards and their interrelationships are understood and considered in the decision making process in Istanbul, we have conducted two workshops and three interviews with 22 expert practitioners with a wide range of natural hazard relevant roles in Istanbul institutions.

We focused our activities on: (i) Identifying multi-hazard interrelationships relevant for Istanbul of tomorrow and creating multi-hazard interrelationship scenarios. (ii) Understanding the usefulness of multi-hazard thinking in the context of different stakeholders, and (iii) Exploring barriers and opportunities for the integration of multi-hazard thinking into operational practice. We find in the Istanbul urban context that (i) single hazards are calculated, examined, and incorporated within urban development and planning process at a significant level, (ii) the participants’ perception of multi-hazard is mostly focused on cascading single hazards where one triggers another, excluding increasing probability and compound hazard interrelationships, (iii) that although multi-hazard approaches are taken into account at some levels in Istanbul, the main focus is still mainly on single hazards, (iv) there is a lack of interaction amongst many  hazard related institutions that are often single-hazard focused, thus hindering disaster risk reduction in a holistic and integrated way.

Among the multi hazard types, earthquakes induced hazards such as landslides, tsunami and floods are highlighted by the participants often. It is notable that climate change related scenarios such as heavy rainfalls and heatwaves are also mentioned during conversations. Our results show that multi-hazard scenarios have the potential to improve DRR in Istanbul as there are some studies that already address the multi hazard perspective to a certain extent and knowledge on potential multi hazards is significant among experts. However, changes in policies, legislative environment, and  governance arrangements are needed, as well as further physical characterisation of interrelationships. 

How to cite: Menteşe, E. Y., Trogrlić, R. Š., Hussein, E., Thompson, H., Öner, E., Yolcu, A., and Malamud, B. D.: Stakeholder Perceptions of Multi-hazards and Implications for Urban Disaster Risk Reduction in Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10895, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10895, 2022.

17:53–18:00
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EGU22-3005
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jonathan Mille, Dr Danielle Charlton, Dr Stephen Edwards, and Prof Muki Haklay

Climate change and the energy transition are long-term challenges that could occur in a chaotic and uncertain way. The potential and varied impacts of these phenomena on existing human systems is leading to a rethinking of the ability of organisations to adapt life-sustaining services and business supply chains. However, the different scenarios surrounding these two phenomena are not always well understood by the public, by those who manage critical infrastructure, businesses, key institutions and organisations and sometimes even by risk managers. In order to assess whether current risk management strategies are able to cope with these two phenomena, it is important to understand the knowledge and perceptions of risk managers of the impacts of climate change and energy transition. 

 

This research investigates the perception of climate change and energy transition by risk managers in order to (i) assess their understanding of the impact of the energy transition and climate change on current lifeline services and business supply chains, (ii) evaluate the needs of risk managers to integrate these phenomena into risk management strategies. Results of ongoing semi-structured interviews and questionnaires will be shared. Overall, the aim of this research is to improve cross-sectoral risk management strategies by integrating a systemic approach into risk management methodology and risk reduction strategies. 

 

The research has been conducted in Chile, which is a country critical  to the global energy transition. Chile  is the world's primary producer of copper (30%) and ranks second in global lithium production (20%), two minerals coveted by different economic sectors and necessary for the global energy transition. In addition the region is exposed to numerous natural hazards, including climate related phenomena and associated extreme weather and temperature events. The integration of risk management strategies that incorporate both climate change and a change in energy supply is crucial in order to avoid significant disruptions and cascading effects in the supply chains of these increasingly sought-after minerals. 

How to cite: Mille, J., Charlton, D. D., Edwards, D. S., and Haklay, P. M.: Assessing risk managers' perceptions of risk mitigation strategies under a climate change and energy transition context. , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3005, 2022.

18:00–18:07
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EGU22-4673
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On-site presentation
Andra Covaciu

Children spend around five days a week in school for almost the entire year. Thus, it is sensible to best prepare them for coping with the potential occurrence of hazardous events while they are in school. The present research aims to explore the perceived importance and feasibility of implementing school-based disaster preparedness (SBDP) by the means of a case study of Ljungby municipality, Kronoberg county, Sweden. Through the means of semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and secondary data, the research unravelled how the respondents, in the form of both students and school staff perceive SBDP, and whether they see it as a potentially useful tool for their schools. In addition, the paper focused on understanding how this type of disaster preparedness can contribute to the municipality’s resilience. We concluded that the respondents understand the importance of SBDP and consider that the administrations at school and municipality level should focus more on ensuring that crisis plans are available, as well as on short- and long-term strategic preparedness. In addition, a shift in focus from training only staff to including students as valuable resources and considering their levels of preparedness was noticed by the interviewees, as well as the need to increase the awareness regarding the available SBDP items in each school. The existent crisis plans might need additional consideration in order to ensure their adaptability to schools’ needs, capacities, lessons learnt and locations. Further studies are needed in regard to whether students-aimed SBDP can be used for creating a sustainable SBDP culture within communities, municipalities and later on, entire countries.

How to cite: Covaciu, A.: School-based disaster preparedness: a route to societal resilience? The case study of Ljungby municipality, Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4673, 2022.

18:07–18:14
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EGU22-6230
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On-site presentation
Stefan Hochreiner-Stigler and Robert Sakic Trogrlic

ABSTRACT: New approaches for the assessment and management of individual, multi- and systemic risks are needed. In this work, we present a framework for the assessment and management of these risks based on the system dependency perspective. We suggest that dependencies may act as one guiding principle not only for assessing such risks but also for evaluating risk management options. The two most extreme cases within the suggested systems dependency perspective are the independence and full dependency state, representing the two ends of the risk continuum. Such a perspective enables an integration of risk management strategies within a coherent framework across geographical and governance scales (i.e., from local to global). Furthermore, individual and multi-hazard risks can be tackled simultaneously as well as independently through the assumption of different strengths of connectedness during a disaster event. The real-world challenges of risk bearers (e.g., households, businesses, governments, supranational institutions) to account for such interdependencies are discussed within the context of optimal complexity.

 

Keywords: Individual Risk, Multi-Risk, Compound Risk, Systemic Risk, Dependencies, Optimal Complexity.

How to cite: Hochreiner-Stigler, S. and Sakic Trogrlic, R.: A Systems Dependency Framework for Individual, Multi- and Systemic Risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6230, 2022.

18:14–18:21
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EGU22-12031
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Riccardo Giusti, Marcello Arosio, and Mario Martina

Natural hazards pose a significant threat to industrial areas and their surrounding environment, in particular considering that extreme natural events are expected to occur more frequently and exposure will increase due to urbanization growth. A NATECH event is defined as a NAtural hazard triggering TECHnological disasters which could affect people, the environment, other facilities and systems. NATECH research began less than thirty years ago and in the last decade these complex phenomena have been investigated by academia and industry. However, NATECH knowledge and methodology have some gaps that must be filled for better risk prevention and management. In fact, it is mainly focused on technological vulnerability or assessing its occurrence probability, yet possible consequences are only partial investigated. The aim of this study is to develop a theoretical framework to assess the environmental impact on soil and groundwater due to NATECH events triggered by flood. This is accomplished by harmonizing existing algorithms and methods for the natural and technological risk component with the new developed environmental soil and groundwater risk component into a coherent modelling chain. The proposed framework utilizes data from natural driven forces (e.g. flood height and velocity) and their probabilities of occurrence. These driven forces are applied to storage tanks through an existing vulnerability model. In order to evaluate resistance pressures, the model requires tank geometries and hypothetical filling level distribution. In addition, a simplified environmental risk model is applied at site scale depending on the stored product (e.g. gasoline, petroleum, etc.) in order to evaluate an affected area and its potential degree of contamination of soil and groundwater.  The proposed framework is applied to a realistic case study and results and critical points would be discussed. We believe that the general theoretical framework could be adapted to any natural triggering phenomena (e.g. earthquakes, lighting, etc.), in order to assess environmental impacts due to NATECH events.

How to cite: Giusti, R., Arosio, M., and Martina, M.: Theoretical framework for environmental risk assessment due to Natech event, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12031, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12031, 2022.

18:21–18:30