NH10.1

Sweden is prone to various natural hazards, including wildfires, storms, floods, cloud bursts and landslides, which have caused considerable economic losses in the past. Natural hazard risk is also expected to increase in several regions in Sweden due to climate change. However, considerable knowledge gaps remain on how to effectively mitigate societal effects of multiple natural hazard events. Current risk assessments often focus on single hazards within distinct administrative boundaries whereas multi-hazard or compound events, which often transcend these boundaries, are rarely accounted for. This poses a problem – particularly in vulnerable geographical areas where the risk for compound events with significant societal impacts are high. Here we present a new project that will address this knowledge gap, with the aims to identify underlying factors of multi-hazard events in Sweden, and to investigate capacities among public and private actors to mitigate these impacts via effective collaboration. The first outcome is an integrated natural hazards assessment that reveals how climate-related natural hazard events have evolved over time and space in Sweden since the 1970s, and what areas have been most exposed to multi-hazard events. These results provide knowledge on the spatiotemporal distribution of natural hazard events, including compound events, which is critical when analysing their underlying drivers.

How to cite: Mård, J., Bodin, Ö., and Nohrstedt, D.: An integrated assessment of multi-hazard events in Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11909, 2022.

Achieving a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction in urban areas remains challenging. This requires understanding the breadth of single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships across various spatial and temporal scales that might impact a given urban area. Here we describe an approach to systematically map the single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships that have a potential to impact Kathmandu, Nepal, one of the focus cities of the UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) Tomorrow’s Cities research hub. Using an existing classification of 21 natural hazard types (across six hazard groups: geophysical, hydrological, atmospheric, biological, space), we first searched for evidence of each of these occurring in or affecting Kathmandu. We used systematic mapping to find and select evidence, applying a simple Boolean search with keywords and reviewing publications across all years available on online databases before selecting evidence from 2010 onwards where available. The spatial boundary around Kathmandu was not specified, rather we chose evidence based on recorded or potential impacts in the city. When searches returned many results (i.e., over 100), we skimmed titles and abstracts for spatial and temporal occurrence to select up to 5 sources. We examined and integrated evidence from diverse sources, including academic literature, grey literature, traditional media (e.g., English language Nepali newspapers), global and national disaster databases and social media. This evidence was then used to assess potential multi-hazard interrelationships that may occur in Kathmandu. Using this blended evidence, we found 21 single hazard types that might impact Kathmandu. We found case study evidence for 11 interrelationship types that have had previous impact in Kathmandu with many more that are theoretically possible. The results illustrate the complexity of the hazard landscape, with many single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships potentially impacting Kathmandu. This knowledge can inform the development of dynamic risk scenarios, to use in planning and civil protection, thus strengthening multi-hazard approaches to disaster risk reduction in Kathmandu.

How to cite: Thompson, H., Malamud, B. D., Gill, J. C., and Šakić Trogrlić, R.: Mapping single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in Global South urban areas: A case study in Kathmandu, Nepal., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-89, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-89, 2022.

Droughts are long-lasting and have a range of cascading impacts on society. These impacts and their responses can influence the further development of the drought itself, but also continue into the period after the drought ended. Especially if society is hit by a next hydrological extreme event, heavy rainfall resulting in flooding, the effects of this may be increased or decreased by the preceding drought and its impacts and responses. We here present a review and a global assessment of cases of these events, based on scientific literature, NGO and governmental reports, and newspaper articles, to study the diversity of how drought affects flood risk. We find that the balance between the positive and negative effects of extreme rainfall after a long dry period is mostly dependent on the underlying vulnerability and the effect of specific responses, and is different for different countries, and for different sectors and groups in society. Based on our initial analysis of the collection of case studies, we see some emerging patterns. For example, in Europe, the USA and Australia, the highly managed water system with hard infrastructure and early-warning systems makes that in most cases the rainfall after drought are managed and adverse effects mitigated, but also lock-ins exist that can make feedbacks of either inaction or maladaptation result in increased economic losses. In Africa and Latin-America, with a fragile governance system, less hard infrastructure, and a more exposed population, extreme rainfall after drought brings relief and replenishment of water resources, but also increased impacts, conflict and displacement. Here, we hypothesise that impacts are unequally distributed in society, because of issues of power, access to land and water resources, inadequate soft infrastructures, etc. We will test this hypothesis with an in-depth qualitative study of local stakeholder knowledge of these human-water processes in selected case studies. The typology of drought-to-flood events that we developed can serve as a starting point for further research on the complexity of these cascading events.

How to cite: Van Loon, A., Barendrecht, M., Weesie, R., Mendoza, H., Matanó, A., Koehler, J., Rohse, M., de Ruiter, M., Mazzoleni, M., Ward, P., Aerts, J., di Baldassarre, G., and Day, R.: How drought affects flood risk: positive / negative effects and feedbacks in different cases, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1818, 2022.

The interaction of multiple hazards across various spatial and temporal scales typically causes compound climate and weather extreme events. Compound concurrent hot day and night extremes that combine daytime and nighttime heat are of greater concern for health than individual hot days or hot nights. Continuous day and nighttime heatwaves can exacerbate human discomfort and therefore increase the risks of heat-related morbidity and mortality. However, little is known about the evolution of such events in the observed and projected climate. Four compound event types, namely (a) preconditioned, (b) multivariate, (c) temporally compounding, and (d) spatially compounding events were introduced in the literature that facilitates the selection of the proper approaches in the study of compound extreme events. The impact of a single or the combination of multiple types could shape more severe extreme events. In our study, we considered the temporally compounding and multivariate types and used climate observations (1981-2020) and high-resolution bias-corrected climate model scenarios of Switzerland (CH2018). Our analyses show that the average frequency and intensity of compound consecutive hot days and nights increase in five big cities of Switzerland until 2100 under RCP4.5. We projected 1.83 ± 0.07 (days decade⁻¹) for Basel, 1.57 ± 0.1 (days decade⁻¹) for Bern, 2.34 ± 0.13 (days decade⁻¹) for Geneva, 2.55 ± 0.17 (days decade⁻¹) for Lugano, and 1.93 ± 0.12 (days decade⁻¹) for Zürich. Moreover, we found an increase in the intensity of summertime (April-October) compound hot extremes days and night in Basel (0.28 ± 0.03 °C decade⁻¹), Bern (0.23 ± 0.02°C decade⁻¹), Geneva (0.37 ± 0.04 °C decade⁻¹), Lugano (0.4 ±0.07°C decade⁻¹), and Zürich (0.44 ± 0.05°C decade⁻¹).

How to cite: Ashraf Vaghefi, S., Muccione, V., Neukom, R., Huggel, C., and Salzmann, N.: Increasing compound concurrent hot day and night extremes in five big cities of Switzerland, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6551, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6551, 2022.

How to cite: Dhakal, A., Chaudhary, S., Guragain, R., Manandhar, V., Gentile, R., Cremen, G., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Mapping future exposure to multiple hazards in Tomorrow’s Cities: the Khokana, Kathmandu, Nepal case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9946, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9946, 2022.

During their expansion, cities are increasingly exposed to various risks from different natural hazards. Moreover, different drivers of these risks may evolve over time due to several endogenous and exogenous factors. In the context of proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design, capturing the above dynamic effects is crucial. This study focuses on modelling the time-dependent physical fragility and vulnerability (i.e., the likelihood of damage and losses as a function of a hazard intensity measure) of building stocks. Given a set of relevant hazards for a case-study region, this research combines existing methodologies and datasets to 1) match the relevant building classes (i.e., construction types) in the case-study database with existing fragility and/or vulnerability models; 2) use state-of-the-art numerical and/or empirical methods to develop fragility/vulnerability models not already available, supplementing existing models; 3) identify and account for the factors affecting the time dependency of the above fragility/vulnerability models (e.g. ageing of buildings, the interaction of different hazards); 4) create a Geographic Information System (GIS) vulnerability database for integration within a broader risk model. The proposed approach offers a reasonable trade-off between the refinement of the considered time-dependent vulnerability assessment and the expected computational complexity of a building portfolio multi-hazard risk model. The proposed approach is demonstrated for the realistic urban prototype “Tomorrowville”, considering earthquakes, floods, and debris flows as case-study hazards.

How to cite: Gentile, R., Manandhar, V., Cremen, G., Jenkins, L., Mentese, E., Guragain, R., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Characterising the dynamic physical vulnerability of Tomorrow’s Cities to multiple natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9704, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9704, 2022.

Recent extreme weather events have drawn attention to how multiple climate disasters can combine to create negative social and economic consequences across sectors. Perhaps the most concerning of these multi-hazard scenarios, is the combination of heat stress, characterized as high temperature and humidity, and severe flooding, which can result in devastating socioeconomic and health consequences for communities. For example, heat stress may precede a flood event, amplifying its impact (e.g., British Columbia (2021)) and leading to increased fatalities and injuries from the event; on the other hand, infrastructure outages caused by severe flooding may increase the vulnerability of individuals to heat stress following the event, as is often the case after tropical cyclones (e.g., Hurricanes Ike (2008) and Maria (2017)). Managing future climate risks will require a better understanding of the frequency of occurrence of compound heat and flood stress and the space and time scales over which they interact. As a case study, this research develops a framework for measuring community exposure to flood and heat extremes applied to North Carolina, USA. Leveraging parcel-scale records of insured flood damage, we generate a spatially- and temporally-explicit database of historical flood extents since 1970, and couple it to a reanalysis of extreme heat events measured in terms of Wetbulb index. We then identify spatial and temporal clusters of extreme heat and flood events in North Carolina. This work will enable improved vulnerability and climate risk assessment and enable community to identify more resilient pathways to climate adaptation. The work is part of a larger Carolinas Collaborative on Climate, Health and Equity (C3HE) project which focuses on the cooccurrence of extremes and aims to measure the socioeconomic and health outcomes in partnership with Carolina communities.

How to cite: Sebastian, A. and Dello, K.: Mapping community exposure to extreme heat and flood hazards in the Carolinas, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12794, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12794, 2022.

The occurence and impacts of disasters are increasing in many parts of the world. The increased complexity of disaster risk due to climate change, expected population growth and the increasing interconnectedness of disaster impacts across communities and economic sectors demonstrates the need to improve our ability to understand and model the impacts of consecutive disasters. These consecutive disasters can be described as disasters whose impacts overlap temporally and spatially while recovery from an earlier disaster is still underway. Several challenges affect our ability to account for the impacts of consecutive disasters and multi-hazard interactions, including extensive data requirements and a common focus on single-hazard risk.  

Incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics of hazard, exposure and vulnerability is key to understanding drivers of risks and their interactions. In this study, we focus on the Philippines and generate an extensive dataset of multi-hazard events based on observed time series of disasters. We illustrate the potential applications of our dataset with an analysis of the inter-arrival time between hazard events and their impacts. The Philippines is located along the ‘Ring of fire’ and is one of the world’s most at risk countries of natural hazards includingearthquakes, tropical cyclones, landslides, and flooding. The study is carried out for the time period 1980-2019 and at two spatial scales: national and provincial. This dataset is further analysed to document the socio-economic impacts of consecutive disasters as well as the interdependencies and dynamics between multi-hazard events. This spatially and temporally consistent dataset can be used as input for future risk modelling effort to integrate the dynamics and impacts of consecutive disasters.

How to cite: de Ruiter, M., Votano, G., and Couasnon, A.: A dataset for multi-risk analysis in the Philippines, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-192, 2022.

Extreme hydrometeorological events such as late autumn and winter storms are being increasingly observed in southern Europe and particularly in the Alps, where they threaten environmental and socio-economic systems. An example is the 2018 Vaia (also known as Adrian) storm (Oct 28-Nov 04), which strongly affected Italy, Austria, France and Switzerland. Over the past decades several damaging storms strongly impacted (i.e., caused adverse consequences on assets, people, infrastructure or the environment) mostly those countries on the northern side of the Alps (e.g., Vivian 1990, Lothar 1999, Gudrun 2005, Kyrill 2007). The Vaia storm however affected the southern side, downing more than 8 million cubic meters of forests and causing extensive damage due to a combination of multiple compounded hazards including heavy rain, flooding and landslides, and strong winds. The event caused 12 fatalities and an economic loss exceeding 3 billion Euro. This storm has been considered exceptional yet could foreshadow multi-hazard phenomena whose frequency and intensity are likely to be influenced by climate change. In such conditions, currently available risk assessment and prevention tools may prove inadequate, particularly on a cross-border level and in vulnerable mountainous regions. Therefore, there is a need to provide decision makers and stakeholders with improved and harmonised tools and standardised frameworks to conduct efficient (climate) risk assessments for cross-border areas. Current and future impacts need to be systematically investigated to adopt prevention and disaster risk reduction measures for the mitigation of inherent risks. In its first year the TRANS-ALP project analysed the occurrence of severe weather events that can be classified as extreme and their specific features in the cross-border area between Austria and Italy (Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol and Veneto). Furthermore, a systematic review of the mechanisms in place to collect impact, damage and loss data has been conducted to allow for a better conceptualisation of the different risk pathways that come into play in case of intense storms. Our findings indicate a noticeable increase of extreme weather conditions that can lead to adverse consequences, also from a systemic perspective, and a complex interplay of damaging factors and chained impacts that can extend for years after the occurrence of the generating events. The findings also highlight the importance of a comprehensive multi-hazard and transdisciplinary approach to storm risk assessment within a framework harmonising Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) instances. In this contribution the first results and insights of the project will be presented and discussed.

The described research activities have been carried out within the framework of the DG-ECHO project TRANS-ALP funded by the European Union (Grant Agreement 101004843).

How to cite: Renner, K., Campalani, P., Crespi, A., Dainese, R., Enigl, K., Haslinger, K., Pittore, M., Plörer, M., Steger, S., Tagliavini, F., Teich, M., and Zebisch, M.: Multi-hazard, cross-border storm risk assessment in the Alps. First insights from the TRANS-ALP project, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12811, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12811, 2022.

Extreme rainfalls associated with tropical cyclones can have devastating impacts along the cyclone path. In mountainous regions, these rainfalls may trigger up to thousands of landslides, themselves feeding destructive debris-rich floods impacting downstream valleys sometimes over tens or hundreds of kilometres. Such compound events were observed in the mountains of eastern Zimbabwe alongside Cyclone Idai in March 2019. Hitting an area of high population vulnerability and exposure, this event had very-high human and geomorphologic impacts in the region. In the framework of the UNESCO project BE-RESILIENT Zimbabwe (funded by World Bank and managed by UNOPS), we analysed the consequences of the landslides associated with this event in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe (~8000 km²). Aiming at a rapid evaluation in a data-scarce region, we built on existing tools and open access satellite remote sensing and GIS data to obtain an exhaustive inventory of the spatial extent of the impacted area, and ultimately an assessment of the population exposure in the region. We mapped over 14 000 (mostly shallow) landslides associated with this single event. Alongside a high population vulnerability, the extreme impacts of the landslides were associated with the very large mobility – up to kilometre-long runout/deposition areas are found – of the landslides. To account for this, we distinguish three types of processes (zones) in our inventory, susceptibility, and exposure analyses: landslide source/depletion, landslide runout and debris-rich floods. This discrimination is key for apprehending the hazard imposed by landslides in the study area, and finally for properly evaluating the population exposure to this hazard. While this work aims primarily at guiding land use planning, mitigation, restoration, and prevention in the Chimanimani and Chipinge districts of eastern Zimbabwe, it also offers a case for the use of simple yet powerful approaches to assess the impacts of an extreme event and the exploitation of the astonishing amount of quality open access data now available for every corner of the globe.   

How to cite: Dille, A., Dewitte, O., Broeckx, J., Verbist, K., Sindiso Dube, A., Poesen, J., and Vanmaercke, M.: The impacts of an extreme event: inventory, susceptibility, and exposure to landslides and debris-rich floods following Cyclone Idai in two mountainous districts of Zimbabwe, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6931, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6931, 2022.

With ever increasing risks and impacts from climate change, there is an urgent need for adaptation information which is relevant and useful to policy makers, businesses and the general public. At Climate X we use an interdisciplinary, impacts-motivated approach to adaptation; combining multiple climate and hazard models to give a holistic view of risk, and engaging end-users at every stage. Our first version product can project the risks and impacts of climate change-related pluvial and fluvial flooding, extreme heat, landslides, subsidence, and sea level rise, all at street level UK-wide. We quantify these risks and the financial costs they could incur under low (RCP 2.6) and high (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios out to 2080. We deliver risk and impact assessments via an easy-to-use interface, along with relevant and decision-able risk summaries. Aligning robust science at scale with user requirements and expectations is not without its challenges. I will outline our approach to multi-hazard climate risk modelling, and discuss some of the successes and challenges we have had in developing a tool which is aligned with the needs of stakeholders, businesses and other end users.

How to cite: Burke, C., Brennan, J., Mitchell, H., Ramsamy, L., Zeneli, M., and Kluza, K.: Climate X: an interdisciplinary approach to projecting multiple climate-related risks and impacts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8460, 2022.

Numerous approaches to multi-hazard risk modelling and quantification have already been proposed in the literature and/or are well established in practice. However, most of these procedures are designed to focus on risk in the context of current static exposure and vulnerability and are therefore limited in their ability to support decisions related to the future, as yet partially unbuilt, urban landscape. This work outlines an end-to-end risk modelling framework that explicitly addresses this specific challenge, forming the computational engine of the innovative Tomorrow’s Cities decision support environment. The framework is designed to consider the multi-hazard risks of tomorrow’s urban environment, using a simulation-based approach to rigorously capture the uncertainties inherent in future projections of exposure as well as physical and social vulnerability. The framework also advances the state-of-practice in future disaster risk modelling by additionally: (1) providing a harmonised methodology for integrating physical and social impacts of disasters that facilitates flexible characterisation of risk metrics beyond physical damage/asset losses; and (2) incorporating a participatory, people-centred approach to risk-informed decision making. It can be used to support decision making on policies related to future urban planning and design, accounting for various stakeholder perspectives on risk. The framework is showcased using the physical and social environment of Tomorrowville, an expanding synthetic city that has been specifically designed to capture distinct dynamic features of developing cities as part of the Tomorrow’s Cities project. 

How to cite: Cremen, G. and the Tomorrow's Cities Early Career Risk Working Group: A State-of-the-Art Approach to Modeling Future Multi-Hazard Risk, supporting People-Centred Decision Making, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9686, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9686, 2022.

Rapid urban expansion in many parts of the world is increasing exposure to natural hazards, which are often exacerbated by climate change. We present the results of physics-based simulations for various flooding, earthquake, and debris-flow scenarios located in a region considered for future urban expansion. The effect of climate change, in terms of increasing rainfall intensity, is incorporated into some of the hazard scenarios. We show that a future urban area can be affected by: (1) multiple hazards at different locations; (2) multiple hazards at a particular location. We demonstrate that this information can be used to shape decision making around future social and built environment developments towards risk-informed future urban planning. In summary, this research demonstrates the importance of considering multiple hazards when designing disaster-resilient urban landscapes of tomorrow. 

How to cite: Jenkins, L., Creed, M., Tarbali, K., Muthusamy, M., Trogrlic, R. S., Phillips, J., Sinclair, H., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Physics based simulations of multiple hazards for risk sensitive land use planning, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10137, 2022.

The world is currently witnessing a rapid exacerbation of the effects of climate change on anthropic and environmental systems. Through the latest Assessment Report 6, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (and so the EU with the Climate Change Adaptation strategy) has launched an urgent call to action to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies, to improve the resilience of these systems. Climate models are complex, requiring multi-disciplinary knowledge about climatology, physics, hydrology, hydraulics, mathematics and statistics, among others, to be conceived and implemented. Complexity is not limited to the model preparation and functioning, but it extends to the interpretation of the outputs by the users. Models’ assumptions and the uncertainties related to the outcomes pose an issue of accessibility and usability in the short period, with consequences on the decision-makers' (corporations, and governments) ability to correctly address the issues at hand.
Several requirements to conduct climate risk assessment have been and are being developed by governmental and non-governmental organizations, particularly for infrastructure projects, and this is creating a demand for new services besides the traditional engineering and scientific services. Golder Associates is a global consulting firm providing services to governments and corporations, with a particular emphasis on the energy and infrastructure sectors. Golder has seen an increase in demand for Climate Risk Assessment services, requiring up-to-date climate data and projections to determine the current and future exposure, hazard, and vulnerability to climate change of its clients’ assets and activities. The firm stands as an example of the challenges in translating the results and uncertainties of climate models and data into adaptation and mitigation strategies, often leading to an increase in uncertainties in major capital investments.
To address this issue, we are developing a decision-support toolbox named CLOUDS (CLimate OUtputs for Decision Support) to help identify and calculate a set of key performance indicators and variables. The aim of CLOUDS is to provide a more straightforward representation of the complexity of the climate models’ outputs, still maintaining the accuracy of the estimates of climate-change effects but addressing the needs of decision-makers. CLOUDS consist of methodologies and routines, derived from the available suite of global circulation models, a set of indicators useful to decision-makers in preparing climate risk assessment analysis of existing assets and future infrastructure projects. The indicators are chosen considering their ability to define the exposure, hazards, and vulnerability to climate change in various contexts, and their connection with the output of the models. The advantage of creating such a toolbox in cooperation and collaboration with a consultancy firm stands in the opportunity to test and adapt the toolbox on a wide range of projects in different business sectors, geographic conditions, and sizes. Therefore, this allows us to study the effectiveness of CLOUDS and by comparing its performances in terms of time and cost with projects using other decision-making tools. Finally, CLOUDS fosters the transfer of knowledge between the academic, the governmental, and the business communities, required to face the consequences of climate change. 

How to cite: Sciarra, C., Dragan, M., Laio, F., Mezzalama, R., Ridolfi, L., and Villata, C.: CLOUDS: A toolbox for decision support and climate risk, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5875, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5875, 2022.

The long-lasting Covid-19 pandemic emergency that the world has been experiencing for more than two years is dramatically challenging all national emergency management systems. For the first time in recent history, our society has been dealing with a global slow-onset disaster, whose emergency phase is lasting for such an extended period, with varying levels of intensity, even with well-defined cycles. Furthermore, the pandemic has interacted with other disasters that occurred during the last years all over the world (e.g., the earthquake in Croatia, the tropical cyclone Harold, or the devastating floods in Western Europe including Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands) underlining the compound and cascading nature of disasters. The complex conditions of Covid-19 (and of slow-onsets in general) and their temporal and spatial overlaps with other natural and man-made hazards have highlighted the limitations of the traditional Disaster Risk Management Cycle (DRMC) to deal with complex multi-hazard risk events.

Our research aims to identify and provide evidence of the main limitations of the current DRMC paradigm when dealing with slow-onset risk events considering the potential interactions with other hazards which lead to the creation of complex multi-hazard risk conditions.

Existing weaknesses of the current DRMC are investigated starting from the lessons learned during the Covid-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have considered and analysed data provided by the Italian Red Cross on the management of past and ongoing emergencies including the Covid-19 pandemic. We identified those critical risk management conditions and negative feedback loops triggered or exacerbated by slow-onset risks and multi-hazard risk events. In particular, our results indicate: (i) an initial phase shift between the actual pandemic emergency conditions (i.e. intensive care units occupancy) and the Italian Red Cross emergency response (i.e. number of emergency operators), showing the need for an adaptation phase when dealing with long-onset hazard risks such as pandemics; (ii) a reduction of the coping capacity (for all the hazards) due to the number of resources deployed to manage the Covid-19 emergency; (iii) a reduction of preparedness activities (including, e.g. training or exercises), due to the continuous emergency phase imposed by Covid-19, which will result in an overall weakening of the risk management system.

The analysis has thus highlighted the need for a revised Disaster Risk Management framework, in which prevention, response, and recovery/rehabilitation operate simultaneously rather than sequentially in complex multi-hazard risk scenarios.

Finally, our study provides insights and lessons learned from the management of the current pandemic seen through the lens of a multi-hazard risk perspective that can be transferred to other slow-onset hazards such as droughts. These results call for improvements of risk management plans within the current national/regional civil protection mechanisms as well as international humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the ultimate need for regional coordination and collaboration.

How to cite: Terzi, S., de Angeli, S., Miozzo, D., Massucchielli, L. S., Carturan, F., Szarzynski, J., and Boni, G.: Learning from the Covid-19 pandemic to advance multi-hazard risk management: a critical analysis of the Italian Red Cross emergency management data, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8911, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8911, 2022.

The concept of disaster risk is multidisciplinary by nature. Responding to disasters and increasingly preventing new and reducing existing disaster risk has become the backbone of various disciplines. Yet, moving from various disciplinary perspectives to integrated approaches remains a fundamental challenge. This talk reflects on the experience of a group of early-career researchers, including physical scientists, engineers and social scientists from different organisations and countries, who came together to lead the refinement, operationalisation and testing of a risk-informed decision support environment (DSE) for Tomorrow’s Cities. Drawing on the notion of “boundary objects” and reflexive elicitation, members of the group explored enabling and hindering factors to interdisciplinary research across four case studies that unfolded between July-December 2021, namely: operationalisation process of the DSE; development of a testbed as a demonstration case for the implementation of the DSE; consolidation of frequently asked questions about the DSE; and elaboration of a multi-media communication tool for outreach to various audiences. The study argues that enablers of interdisciplinarity can be synthesised across a range of factors, including exogenous, governing, learning and attitudinal, and that diversity of boundary objects as convening spaces for disciplinary interaction can propel integration. It is further suggested that a similar rationale can be applied when moving towards co-producing knowledge with non-academic actors in a transdisciplinary manner. Strengthening the interdisciplinary capacities of early career researchers across disciplines and geographies is a fundamental step and promising pathway towards transformation.

How to cite: Filippi, M. E., Sakic Trogrlic, R., Cremen, G., Barcena, A., Mentese, E., Gentile, R., Creed, M., Jenkins, L., Muthusamy, M., Tarbali, K., Dhakal, A., Manandhar, V., Rai, M., Adhikari, S., Kalaycioglu, M., Barake, B., Poudel, D. P., Galasso, C., and McCloskey, J.: Unleashing the power of the interdisciplinary in disaster risk reduction: reflections from an early career researcher group developing a risk-informed decision support environment for Tomorrow’s Cities, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10244, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10244, 2022.

Climate change and the energy transition are long-term challenges that could occur in a chaotic and uncertain way. The potential and varied impacts of these phenomena on existing human systems is leading to a rethinking of the ability of organisations to adapt life-sustaining services and business supply chains. However, the different scenarios surrounding these two phenomena are not always well understood by the public, by those who manage critical infrastructure, businesses, key institutions and organisations and sometimes even by risk managers. In order to assess whether current risk management strategies are able to cope with these two phenomena, it is important to understand the knowledge and perceptions of risk managers of the impacts of climate change and energy transition. 

This research investigates the perception of climate change and energy transition by risk managers in order to (i) assess their understanding of the impact of the energy transition and climate change on current lifeline services and business supply chains, (ii) evaluate the needs of risk managers to integrate these phenomena into risk management strategies. Results of ongoing semi-structured interviews and questionnaires will be shared. Overall, the aim of this research is to improve cross-sectoral risk management strategies by integrating a systemic approach into risk management methodology and risk reduction strategies. 

The research has been conducted in Chile, which is a country critical  to the global energy transition. Chile  is the world's primary producer of copper (30%) and ranks second in global lithium production (20%), two minerals coveted by different economic sectors and necessary for the global energy transition. In addition the region is exposed to numerous natural hazards, including climate related phenomena and associated extreme weather and temperature events. The integration of risk management strategies that incorporate both climate change and a change in energy supply is crucial in order to avoid significant disruptions and cascading effects in the supply chains of these increasingly sought-after minerals. 

How to cite: Mille, J., Charlton, D. D., Edwards, D. S., and Haklay, P. M.: Assessing risk managers' perceptions of risk mitigation strategies under a climate change and energy transition context., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3005, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3005, 2022.

Children spend around five days a week in school for almost the entire year. Thus, it is sensible to best prepare them for coping with the potential occurrence of hazardous events while they are in school. The present research aims to explore the perceived importance and feasibility of implementing school-based disaster preparedness (SBDP) by the means of a case study of Ljungby municipality, Kronoberg county, Sweden. Through the means of semi-structured interviews, questionnaires and secondary data, the research unravelled how the respondents, in the form of both students and school staff perceive SBDP, and whether they see it as a potentially useful tool for their schools. In addition, the paper focused on understanding how this type of disaster preparedness can contribute to the municipality’s resilience. We concluded that the respondents understand the importance of SBDP and consider that the administrations at school and municipality level should focus more on ensuring that crisis plans are available, as well as on short- and long-term strategic preparedness. In addition, a shift in focus from training only staff to including students as valuable resources and considering their levels of preparedness was noticed by the interviewees, as well as the need to increase the awareness regarding the available SBDP items in each school. The existent crisis plans might need additional consideration in order to ensure their adaptability to schools’ needs, capacities, lessons learnt and locations. Further studies are needed in regard to whether students-aimed SBDP can be used for creating a sustainable SBDP culture within communities, municipalities and later on, entire countries.

How to cite: Covaciu, A.: School-based disaster preparedness: a route to societal resilience? The case study of Ljungby municipality, Sweden, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4673, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4673, 2022.

ABSTRACT: New approaches for the assessment and management of individual, multi- and systemic risks are needed. In this work, we present a framework for the assessment and management of these risks based on the system dependency perspective. We suggest that dependencies may act as one guiding principle not only for assessing such risks but also for evaluating risk management options. The two most extreme cases within the suggested systems dependency perspective are the independence and full dependency state, representing the two ends of the risk continuum. Such a perspective enables an integration of risk management strategies within a coherent framework across geographical and governance scales (i.e., from local to global). Furthermore, individual and multi-hazard risks can be tackled simultaneously as well as independently through the assumption of different strengths of connectedness during a disaster event. The real-world challenges of risk bearers (e.g., households, businesses, governments, supranational institutions) to account for such interdependencies are discussed within the context of optimal complexity.

Keywords: Individual Risk, Multi-Risk, Compound Risk, Systemic Risk, Dependencies, Optimal Complexity.

How to cite: Hochreiner-Stigler, S. and Sakic Trogrlic, R.: A Systems Dependency Framework for Individual, Multi- and Systemic Risks, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6230, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6230, 2022.