Stress evolution and slip deficit on the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) in the Marmara Sea: insights from paleoseismicity, seismicity and geodetic data

The North Anatolian Fault experienced large earthquakes with 250–400 years recurrence time. In the Marmara Sea region,
the 1999 (Mw=7.4) and the 1912 (Mw =7.4) earthquake ruptures bound the Central Marmara Sea fault segment. Using
historical-instrumental seismicity catalogue and paleoseismic results (≃ 2000-year database), the mapped fault segments, fault
kinematic and GPS data, we compute the paleoseismic-seismic moment rate and geodetic moment rate. A clear discrepancy
appears between the moment rates and implies a signifcant delay in the seismic slip along the fault in the Marmara Sea. The
rich database allows us to identify and model the size of the seismic gap and related fault segment and estimate the moment
rate defcit. Our modelling suggest that the locked Central Marmara Sea fault segment (even including a creeping section)
bears a moment rate defcit 6.4 × 1017 N.m./year that corresponds to Mw ≃ 7.4 for a future earthquake with an average
≃ 3.25 m coseismic slip. Taking into account the uncertainty in the strain accumulation along the 130-km-long Central fault
segment, our estimate of the seismic slip defcit being ≃ 10 mm/year implies that the size of the future earthquake ranges
between Mw=7.4 and 7.5.

Reference:

[1] Meghraoui, M., Toussaint, R. & Aksoy, M.E. The slip deficit on the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) in the Marmara Sea: insights from paleoseismicity, seismicity and geodetic data. Med. Geosc. Rev. 3, 45–56 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42990-021-00053-w