EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Extreme weather effects on land ownership in Uganda

Lisa Murken1, Kati Krähnert1, and Christoph Gornott1,2
Lisa Murken et al.
  • 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Agroecosystem Analysis and Modelling, University of Kassel, 34109, Kassel, Germany

This study examines the effects of (extreme) weather conditions on the willingness to purchase and on actual purchase of land ownership rights in Uganda. We use three waves of the Uganda National Panel Survey in combination with high-resolution gridded precipitation and temperature data, with which we calculate a drought index as weather shock measure, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Using a household fixed-effects approach, we exploit spatial and temporal variation in SPEI values to causally identify the effect of extreme weather events on the willingness to acquire ownership to land and actual changes in the land ownership structure of households over time. Results show that dry conditions dampen households’ intentions to purchase land ownership rights, while wet conditions positively affect such intentions. In addition, wet conditions substantially increase the price households are willing to pay to purchase land ownership. The effects are robust to different specifications, persistent over time and translate into actual changes of land ownership ratios with a two-year time lag. The findings suggest that more favourable climatic conditions for agriculture increase interest in land ownership, which has implications for land formalisation programmes and climate change adaptation efforts.

How to cite: Murken, L., Krähnert, K., and Gornott, C.: Extreme weather effects on land ownership in Uganda, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12655,, 2022.