Groundwater salinization dynamics - a conceptual modeling approach to prioritize water management plans in a changing environment

Groundwater salinization has been a phenomenon of increasing concern in the circum-Mediterranean region. Future hydroclimatic and social changes in the area are expected to affect the dynamics of salinization, and to create further pressure on water resources. However, these dynamics are system-specific. To effectively mitigate predicted impacts, local water management needs to prioritize actions based on the temporal dynamics of the change. The conceptual modeling approach BC2C has been applied to the coastal aquifer on the island of Samos, Greece. The approach takes into account the flow dynamics, depending on physical parameters of the flow system, and connects biogeophysical changes of the land-use system to a response function of aquifer salinity. This straightforward modeling approach based on analytical functions yields a time-impact relationship of propagation and recession for given interventions. At the MEDSAL project pilot site of the Kampos plain in Samos, the BC2C model generates a response time between 15 years for the shallow aquifer and up to 150 years for the coupled deep aquifer system. This insight into the dynamics of groundwater salinization can be used as a guide and baseline for future groundwater management plans, and highlights the importance of a medium to long-term perspective.