The role of tropical cyclone size in precipitation over Mexico

Tropical cyclones (TCs) from the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean affect Mexico yearly. Their landfall  in the country produces not only water supply in semiarid regions, but also socioeconomic impacts in regions that are vulnerable to strong winds and heavy precipitation. The associated disasters have motivated the Mexican authorities to develop an Early Warning System for TCs (EWS-TC). However, this EWS-TC is still inefficient due to the definition of TC size (defined by the extension of winds at 34 knots, commonly called R34) and neglection of TC precipitation in the warnings. Here, we propose to use TC sizes that consider the TC rain bands, heavy precipitation and strong winds. To compute our TC size, we use a new parameterization of radial profile of winds and infrared satellite images, which leads to compute TC radii by quadrants, during the 2000-2020 period. We conclude that our TC size definition leads to better warnings than the use of R34. Suggestions on how resilience for facing TCs can be improved are also discussed.