NH9.3

This work presents a framework that explores human-environment and/or socio-ecological system (HES, SES) resilience to natural hazards. HES is presented as a system of five forms of capital i.e. social, economic, physical, governance and natural. The five forms of capital are reviewed such that the social capital refers to the union of social and human capital in their classical definitions from five forms of capitals model of Sustainable Livelihood Framework, apart from governance. Governance, however, is discussed as separate capital for of its central role in disaster risk management. Besides, the domain of natural capital is also expanded to incorporate both natural resources and ecosystem services. Resilience as Interaction-Outcome model is proposed to illustrate that hazard as an external driver affects both HES subsystems and the interactions between their elements. This framework addresses the internal drivers as an interaction space with all the processes between and inside each of the capital. It is to illustrate that the general interaction space has another smaller and/or intrinsic level of interactions, which is defined by a certain hazard, whereas the newly developed interactions define the outcome such as damages and losses etc.

How to cite: Gevorgyan, L., Ahmed, K., and Gudina, G.: Human Environment Systems' Resilience Interaction-Outcome Framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6107, 2022.

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges that our planet is currently facing. From seasonal shifts in climate, with droughts, heatwaves, floods and storms, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Cities are heavily affected by the climate change consequences, with most of Europe’s population living in cities and urban areas and projections for 2050 predicting even larger shares (Nabielek, Hamers, & Evers, 2016). At the same time, cities generate up to 80% of a country’s GDP (United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2011), but also consume 75% of the natural resources and account for 60-80% of greenhouse gas emissions. That is, urbanisation and cities’ economic growth are the biggest contributors to climate change.

Heritage, as a sensitive and valuable element of the living environment, is being affected by the increase in frequency and intensity of climate-related events, posing new challenges and needs to conservators and heritage managers. But improving the resilience of the historic urban districts, adapting to urbanisation, climate change, and other social, economic, and security trends is a challenging endeavour for cities and prone to potential conflicts of interest. It requires managing tasks like accommodating a growing – and in many cases aging – population, providing the required services, fostering social, environmental, and economic sustainability, and keeping the city liveable and attractive. But a liveable, sustainable, and, above all, resilient city is not just a product of organised and well-functioning services; other crucial elements are the places that make up the city, along with their communities. Sites of significant cultural and historical value and significance have an important role to play in fostering location-based identity and social cohesion. With the increased recognition of the threats that heritage faces from climate change, but also the role heritage can play in driving climate actions, all those connected to heritage face both a profound opportunity and a challenging responsibility. (ICOMOS Climate Change and Cultural Heritage Working Group, 2019)

As a response to these threats, a bridge is needed to fill the gap between urban development, resilience planning, and heritage management to boost collaboration among all involved stakeholders and make our cities more climate neutral and resilient. This should be based on a vision to stimulate and promote development for wider adoption of solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation in historic urban districts. This process will promote constructive dialogue, development, and exchange of best practices for achieving better integration between resilient urban planning and heritage management. Moreover, it will aim to increase awareness of the role of historic areas – with their unique value and importance – play in stimulating the general public to actively contribute to coordinated efforts on climate resilience in accordance with protection and preservation of heritage both within local environments as well as nationally and internationally.

In the long-term, the goal is to make historic urban districts and their communities climate neutral and resilient, but also branch out to issues of contemporary urban districts to build and nurture more synergies.

How to cite: Karaseitanidis, Dr. I., Kalis, Dr. A., Egusquiza Ortega, A., and Milde, K.: Bridging urban development, resilience planning, and heritage management for Climate Neutral and Resilient Historic Urban Districts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13075, 2022.

The need to enhance individual and collective disaster resilience is becoming more urgent considering the increasingly complex and interconnected risks that arise from numerous natural, and not only hazardous, events. Many initiatives to encourage citizen participation in creating a resilient society exist, yet are typically fragmented. This fragmentation can result in unclear responsibilities for building disaster resilience to mitigate the impact of natural hazards. New emerging technologies can play a vital role in supporting the preparedness and response to disasters, however, there is limited understanding on how to implement them effectively during different phases of managing disaster risk. Traditionally, approaches used by Civil Protection Authorities (CPAs) to build resilience have focused on the managerial and technical aspects of ‘crisis’ response, whilst engagement with citizens about existing risks and preparedness measures have typically focused on one-way, top-down risk communication. At the same time, citizen and volunteer initiatives, often applying social media communication technologies, are created but are not necessarily coordinated with activities implemented by authorities. As a result, risk perceptions and actions of citizens, as well as the risk perceptions of citizens and CPAs remain frequently unaligned resulting in a Risk Perception Action Gap (RPAG).

This work presents the overall objectives of RiskPACC project, which focuses on increasing the preparedness actions undertaken by citizens and narrowing the Risk Perception Action Gap (RPAG). The project follows a co-creation approach that will facilitate interaction between citizens and CPAs by evolving their collaboration into a two-way communication flow. By jointly identifying their needs and develop potential procedural and technical solutions, disaster resilience before, during and after the occurrence of natural and human induced hazards can be enhanced. RiskPACC facilitates a collaboration between citizens, CPAs, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), researchers and developers through seven case studies that will provide a live test bed to jointly design and prototype novel solutions. At the same time, a set of technological tools are also presented which include a framework and methodology to understand and close the RPAG, a repository of international best practice, and tooled solutions based on new forms of digital and community-centred data and associated training guidance. These are developed and integrated into an efficient platform that offer advanced information and co-operation to citizens and CPAs to enhance disaster risk management and enhance mitigation and adaptation actions to natural hazards.

Acknowledgments:

This research has been financed by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 101019707, project RiskPACC (Integrating Risk Perception and Action to enhance Civil protection-Citizen interaction). For more information about the RiskPACC project visit the website https://www.riskpacc.eu/.

How to cite: Ouzounoglou, E., Michalis, P., Berchtold, C., Vollmer, M., Anniés, J., and Amditis, A.: RiskPACC: Integrating risk perception and technological solutions to enhance response to natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3436, 2022.

Natural hazard scientists can contribute to the planning and development of sustainable and resilient communities through improved engagement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Yet many scientists are uncertain of the steps they can take to effectively integrate their work into DRR. To address this challenge, we have developed an online, self-led training course designed for students and researchers interested in strengthening their engagement in DRR. The content of this online training course is based on a paper published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021) and involved a peer feedback process in the development of each module. There are seven learning modules on the following topics: (1) multi-hazard environments, (2) effective partnerships, (3) stakeholder engagement, (4) cultural understanding, (5) equitable access to hazard information, (6) people centered DRR, and (7) DRR and sustainable development. Each module includes asynchronous video lectures, practice exercises, self-assessment tools and feedback mechanisms, and interviews with experts. While the course is designed for natural hazard researchers, it incorporates a variety of teaching and learning strategies to support a wide range of users including decision makers, practitioners and university students to contribute more effectively to the integrated work needed to improve DRR activities. The course is open-access and will be launched in May 2022 at https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/view.php?id=7993. Development of this course was supported by the EGU Training School Fund.

How to cite: Mohadjer, S., Gill, J. C., Taylor, F. E., and Jay, C.: Building sustainable and resilient societies: An online training course to enhance natural hazard scientists’ contribution to disaster risk reduction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-829, 2022.

This abstract explores the importance of integrating digital twins and earth observation for supporting natural disasters management in Cyprus. Indeed, this study shows how a digital twin will be developed based on existing sources of data like satellite imagery, maps, in situ data and other auxiliary data such as meteorological, hydrological data etc. This digital twin will be used to predict future conditions of a certain area of interest in Pafos District in Cyprus. The main aim is to update the proposed digital twin using satellite images such as Copernicus data for efficient decision making from the key stakeholders such as government and public authorities.

Several natural disasters have been identified in the national risk assessment of Cyprus as the main priorities such as floods, earthquakes, fires, landslides etc. In the proposed digital twin these four hazards will be considered. However, this abstract shows the prelimary results retrieved by examining the impact of floods in an area of interest in Pafos District area in Cyprus by integrating several data and techniques such as earth observation and hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Christofi, D., Danezis, C., Themistocleous, K., Zacharatos, H., Kyriakides, N., and Hadjimitsis, D.: The importance of integrating Digital Twins and Earth Observation to support resilient society applications in Cyprus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13499, 2022.

How to cite: Veigel, N., Kreibich, H., and Cominola, A.: Exploring Behavioral Determinants of Flood Insurance Adoption with Explainable Machine Learning in the Continental US, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5839, 2022.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) from the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean affect Mexico yearly. Their landfall  in the country produces not only water supply in semiarid regions, but also socioeconomic impacts in regions that are vulnerable to strong winds and heavy precipitation. The associated disasters have motivated the Mexican authorities to develop an Early Warning System for TCs (EWS-TC). However, this EWS-TC is still inefficient due to the definition of TC size (defined by the extension of winds at 34 knots, commonly called R34) and neglection of TC precipitation in the warnings. Here, we propose to use TC sizes that consider the TC rain bands, heavy precipitation and strong winds. To compute our TC size, we use a new parameterization of radial profile of winds and infrared satellite images, which leads to compute TC radii by quadrants, during the 2000-2020 period. We conclude that our TC size definition leads to better warnings than the use of R34. Suggestions on how resilience for facing TCs can be improved are also discussed.

How to cite: Perez Estrada, A. and Dominguez Sarmiento, C.: The role of tropical cyclone size in precipitation over Mexico, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1373, 2022.

Tropical regions are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards and cascading disasters. The geography and geology of these regions, along with intense rainfall, high rates of weathering, environmental degradation and global warming, contribute to the increasing impact of hydro-meteorological hazards. More frequent and intense events introduce new risk factors that can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The analysis of natural hazards in tropical regions faces several challenges, such as the lack of baseline data, which prevents the implementation of effective disaster risk reduction measures. Therefore, the integration of geomorphological, ecological and dendrological studies plays an important role in understanding the impacts of future events and building community resilience. Here we combine multiple sources of data and approaches, such as, remote sensing, field data acquisition, machine learning and physical modelling to develop an integrated coupled landslide-flood risk model for the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala. This risk analysis will strengthen the development and implementation of appropriate disaster risk reduction in rural communities.

Sierra de las Minas is a very complex region due to coalescing events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, land mass movements and floods. The impact of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 is used as a reference to understand the frequency and magnitude of these types of hydro-meteorological hazards, the triggering factors and the multi-hazard dynamics. The results are subsequently used to determine the potential socioeconomic impacts of a similar event under current conditions of vulnerability and exposure. The potential socioeconomic losses are then compared to the impacts of hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020. This information will be used to propose adaptation strategies, such as community-based early warning systems, pedestrian evacuation models and storytelling projects, that will help reduce the underlying vulnerabilities of the community to better respond to potential events to which it is exposed.

How to cite: Jiménez Donato, Y. A., Restrepo, C., Avila Mora, M. A., Catalán Armas, S. M., Muñoz-Torrero Manchado, A., Stoffel, M., and Ballesteros Cánovas, J. A.: Enhancing resilience of vulnerable rural communities against hydrometeorological hazards in tropical mountains. A case study from the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8276, 2022.

Keywords: Nature Based Solutions, Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, rural livelihood  , Nepal Himalayas

Abstract:

Climate has been changing and has considerable impacts on the livelihood of rural/urban communities all around the globe. The impacts however are more pronounced in the mountainous region such as in the Dudhkosi Basin (~4,063km²) in eastern Nepal. Studies suggested that the mountainous region of Nepal are climate-sensitive meaning that a small change in air temperature could bring significant impacts on the environmental degradation process and increase the frequency of climate-induced hazards and risk of disasters. In order to understand the dynamics of the changing climate on rural livelihood, this research attempted to model the environmental vulnerability of the basin considering the topographic and environmental attributes and assessed their contribution to the physical environmental degradation process. Multi-criteria based Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches were implemented considering the seven primary topographic attributes such as slope, soil type, land use, NDVI, elevation, distance to drainage, and terrain wetness. The model was implemented for the three scenarios of rainfall such as historical and projected precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 as a climate change variable and distance to the rural roads as an anthropogenic factor to model the physical environmental degradation there by the vulnerability. The analysis depicted that the slope attributes has the highest contribution (20.21%) among all followed by precipitation, soil type, land use, distance to road, distance to drainage, terrain wetness and NDVI respectively 18.5%, 14.3%, 12.56%, 10.75%, 9.63%, 7.55% and 6.5%. The analysis clearly indicated that the slope is one of the most critical attributes where many settlements are located and have a significant contribution to the land-degradation process of the mountainous region. While the increasing trend of rainfall will cause more soil erosion and shallow landslides compounded due to the unplanned construction of rural roads thereby more area of the basin under the threat of degradation. The model also indicated that the increased amount of degraded land for the projected precipitation scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively increased from 7% to 15%. The increased amount of degradation will cause more communities living on the sloping terrain will turn to be vulnerable. The analysis demonstrated in this research suggested that the basin is at high threat of land degradation under the climate change scenarios for which an integrated basin management plan is to be developed. Integrated approach for Building Climate Resilience is the key in which the Nature-Based Solutions measures as climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The measures also  improve the watershed conditions that subsequently enhance the quality of the lives of the people with increased economic opportunities and coping capacity for the climate change induced disasters and community resiliency.

How to cite: Kc, D., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M.-H., Devkota, S., and Kc, D.: Assessing the Environmental vulnerability and its impacts on livelihood in Dudhkoshi Basin in Eastern Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9466, 2022.

Slope failures represent a major threat to human life and infrastructure in many countries all over the world and they often lead to significant and long-lasting disruptions of economic, social and ecological systems. This paper aims to describe civil engineering approaches to apply resilience assessment framework as well as a methodology using a model aiming to quantify slope instability. Regional Authority of Attica in Greece effectively works for their hazard affected communities. A particular case study where applied resilience civil engineering frameworks as well as a semi-quantitative methodology to engage with different stakeholders, is described from Attica Region, on Provincial Road 3 (Dekelias Street segment) near the stream Chelidonous in the Municipality of Kifissia.

A supporting study was carried out in the context of the restoration of the road surface and the stability of the stream slopes. The results of the geotechnical survey and study are presented in brief and the measures proposed by the study to support the slopes are described. The hazard of the existing condition of the encountered slopes adjacent to the roadway was confirmed using the Rock Engineering System (RES). Civil engineering approach and RES methodology provide targeted resilience strengthening investments and actions across, that are increasingly demanded in the context of climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

How to cite: Tavoularis, Dr. N.: Towards the resilience of Attica Region’s Provincial Road 3 in Greece, due to slope failure by applying civil engineering techniques and Rock Engineering System assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11196, 2022.