NH9.3

NH9 EDI

Disasters caused by natural hazards often lead to significant and long-lasting disruptions of economic, social and ecological systems. To improve both ex-ante disaster risk reduction and ex-post recovery, increasing attention is placed on strengthening the “disaster resilience” of communities, cities, regions and countries. However, a lack of empirical data and evidence, a high diversity in assessment and measurement approaches as well as various definitions of disaster resilience make it difficult to establish a solid understanding of what contributes to disaster resilience and how it can be measured. This hinders targeted resilience strengthening investments and actions across all levels, that are increasingly demanded in the context of climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

This session aims to discuss concepts and frameworks that improve the understanding of economic, social and ecological resilience to various natural hazards (e.g. floods, droughts, wildfires) including compound events as well as to review current frameworks and tools that aim to measure disaster resilience. We invite submissions addressing process- and outcome-based approaches to assess or measure disaster resilience, as well as studies using remote sensing, climate information or other innovative approaches such as predictive models aiming to quantify disaster resilience. We especially welcome presentations looking at cross-learnings and links between natural hazard resilience and public health as a result of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Studies could include operationalized and applied resilience assessment frameworks, case studies using new data sets to measure resilience as well new tools and approaches to engage with decision makers, practitioners and the general public. We also welcome submissions from governments at all levels, the development and humanitarian sector as well as practitioners that effectively work for the hazard affected communities both from the developed and developing world.

Convener: Viktor RözerECSECS | Co-conveners: Adriana Keating, Colin McQuistan, Denyse S. DookieECSECS, Finn LaurienECSECS, Demet Intepe
Presentations
| Fri, 27 May, 08:30–11:05 (CEST)
 
Room 1.61/62

Presentations: Fri, 27 May | Room 1.61/62

Chairpersons: Viktor Rözer, Finn Laurien, Demet Intepe
08:30–08:33
Resilience concepts, frameworks and metrics
08:33–08:39
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EGU22-743
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Angelos Alamanos and Suzanne Linnane

Floods occur when the capacity of the drainage system (natural or man-made) cannot safely drain-channel the volume of water produced by excess rainfall. The natural phenomena causing floods cannot be controlled, but the technical, geological, geomorphological and soil conditions of the river basin can be optimised by human intervention. The goal is to have resilient systems capable of satisfactorily responding to flood events. This work attempts to answer two research questions arising:

Firstly, how the different definitions of resilience are reflected in the proposed approaches from the international literature to date.  Following a review of 57 studies, the perspective of each one in relation to resilience was analysed (general definitions, engineering, ecological resilience, static or dynamic, adaptive and withstanding capacity, transformability, and hazard-based definitions were examined). Diverse definitions of resilience lead to different measures-indices-approaches to assess it quantitatively or qualitatively, always depending on the system considered by each study. These cases are analysed in terms of data availability, simplicity and applicability –for the examined system and purpose.

Secondly, to categorise these approaches into general groups based on the structure of each perspective analysed above. Key criteria for this categorisation were the type/s of impact(s) studied, the combination (or not) with a hydraulic model (spatial information), the methods, and the context of the study (awareness, typology-definitions, model-quantification of resilience or policy-oriented).

The main categories referred to: i) theoretical-qualitative approaches, focused on conceptualisation and communication (covering social aspects, awareness, and behavioural science to provide a solid basis for any resilience assessment); ii) general and hazard-based approaches (examining flood resilience as a system’s feature-capacity or evaluated by other types of response to flood events); iii) resilience as a function of the system’s performance (modelling a mathematical relation, a function of resilience expressing its dynamic behaviour subject to the system’s performance during disturbance); iv) other resilience metrics, e.g. indices and indicators (more customised approaches, where the analysts define the system’s satisfactory and failure states according to functionality thresholds depending on the system’s features and observed behaviour); v) combination of hydraulic/hydrodynamic models to resilience estimates (flood simulation results containing spatial information are used as evaluation factors for other parameters that affect resilience, e.g. different types of failures, damage or exposure). The literature is also vast regarding examples of measures (protection, mitigation, adaptation) and strategies, which, in essence, enhance the systems resilience to floods.

Resilience is a versatile concept, so are the examined approaches so far. Using the proper definition each time is challenging, case-specific, and a very important stage because it will define the analysis of the resilience of the selected system (quantitative or qualitative). This work aimed to facilitate future studies by providing a useful clarification of definitions and categorisation of resilience approaches. Thus, one can chose the most suitable approach depending on the studied problem’s conditions and purpose.

How to cite: Alamanos, A. and Linnane, S.: Systems Resilience to floods: a categorisation of approaches, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-743, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-743, 2022.

08:39–08:45
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EGU22-6107
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Lilit Gevorgyan, Kamal Ahmed, and Gemechis Gudina

This work presents a framework that explores human-environment and/or socio-ecological system (HES, SES) resilience to natural hazards. HES is presented as a system of five forms of capital i.e. social, economic, physical, governance and natural. The five forms of capital are reviewed such that the social capital refers to the union of social and human capital in their classical definitions from five forms of capitals model of Sustainable Livelihood Framework, apart from governance. Governance, however, is discussed as separate capital for of its central role in disaster risk management. Besides, the domain of natural capital is also expanded to incorporate both natural resources and ecosystem services. Resilience as Interaction-Outcome model is proposed to illustrate that hazard as an external driver affects both HES subsystems and the interactions between their elements. This framework addresses the internal drivers as an interaction space with all the processes between and inside each of the capital. It is to illustrate that the general interaction space has another smaller and/or intrinsic level of interactions, which is defined by a certain hazard, whereas the newly developed interactions define the outcome such as damages and losses etc.

How to cite: Gevorgyan, L., Ahmed, K., and Gudina, G.: Human Environment Systems' Resilience Interaction-Outcome Framework, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6107, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6107, 2022.

08:45–08:51
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EGU22-11347
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Designing a Metric System for the evaluation of the Resilience due to Extreme Events in a Socio-Environmental System.
(withdrawn)
Jagriti Jain, Deepak Khare, and Francisco-Munoz Arriola
08:51–08:57
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EGU22-13075
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Presentation form not yet defined
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Dr. Ioannis Karaseitanidis, Dr. Antonis Kalis, Aitziber Egusquiza Ortega, and Katharina Milde

Climate change is one of the biggest challenges that our planet is currently facing. From seasonal shifts in climate, with droughts, heatwaves, floods and storms, the impacts of climate change are global in scope and unprecedented in scale. Cities are heavily affected by the climate change consequences, with most of Europe’s population living in cities and urban areas and projections for 2050 predicting even larger shares (Nabielek, Hamers, & Evers, 2016). At the same time, cities generate up to 80% of a country’s GDP (United Nations Human Settlements Programme, 2011), but also consume 75% of the natural resources and account for 60-80% of greenhouse gas emissions. That is, urbanisation and cities’ economic growth are the biggest contributors to climate change.

Heritage, as a sensitive and valuable element of the living environment, is being affected by the increase in frequency and intensity of climate-related events, posing new challenges and needs to conservators and heritage managers. But improving the resilience of the historic urban districts, adapting to urbanisation, climate change, and other social, economic, and security trends is a challenging endeavour for cities and prone to potential conflicts of interest. It requires managing tasks like accommodating a growing – and in many cases aging – population, providing the required services, fostering social, environmental, and economic sustainability, and keeping the city liveable and attractive. But a liveable, sustainable, and, above all, resilient city is not just a product of organised and well-functioning services; other crucial elements are the places that make up the city, along with their communities. Sites of significant cultural and historical value and significance have an important role to play in fostering location-based identity and social cohesion. With the increased recognition of the threats that heritage faces from climate change, but also the role heritage can play in driving climate actions, all those connected to heritage face both a profound opportunity and a challenging responsibility. (ICOMOS Climate Change and Cultural Heritage Working Group, 2019)

As a response to these threats, a bridge is needed to fill the gap between urban development, resilience planning, and heritage management to boost collaboration among all involved stakeholders and make our cities more climate neutral and resilient. This should be based on a vision to stimulate and promote development for wider adoption of solutions for climate change mitigation and adaptation in historic urban districts. This process will promote constructive dialogue, development, and exchange of best practices for achieving better integration between resilient urban planning and heritage management. Moreover, it will aim to increase awareness of the role of historic areas – with their unique value and importance – play in stimulating the general public to actively contribute to coordinated efforts on climate resilience in accordance with protection and preservation of heritage both within local environments as well as nationally and internationally.

In the long-term, the goal is to make historic urban districts and their communities climate neutral and resilient, but also branch out to issues of contemporary urban districts to build and nurture more synergies.

How to cite: Karaseitanidis, Dr. I., Kalis, Dr. A., Egusquiza Ortega, A., and Milde, K.: Bridging urban development, resilience planning, and heritage management for Climate Neutral and Resilient Historic Urban Districts, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13075, 2022.

08:57–09:03
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EGU22-1387
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ECS
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Highlight
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Presentation form not yet defined
Adriana Keating, Naomi Rubenstein, Karen Campbell, Rachel Norton, David Nash, Michael Szoenyi, and Francisco Ianni

Resilience measurement frameworks that attempt to capture all hazards or are otherwise very generic do not support identification of actionable improvements in resilience. The questions of ‘resilience of what, to what?’ must be clearly defined. Building on the success of its flood resilience measurement for communities (FRMC) approach to measuring resilience to a single hazard, the Zurich Flood Resilience Alliance has now tackled this challenge  by developing and deploying a multi-hazard community resilience measurement framework and tool.

This presentation will outline the process of adapting a single-hazard resilience measurement approach to a multi-hazard one, which involved thoroughly engaging with questions about which aspects of a systems resilience are critical under a specific hazard, how they differ or converge with other hazards and why. As a result, the multi-hazard framework has been intentionally designed so that users can develop deeper insights into the hazard-specific aspects of a system as well as some of the more general resilience strengths and needs. Further, the multi-hazard framework has expanded the utility and capacity building benefits that were being achieved through the flood tool to different contexts and climate hazards.

We will present the final multi-hazard framework and how it is currently being used to jointly measure resilience two quite different hazards – flood and heatwave – in different settings in North and South America. Potential to add further hazards, such as wildfire and storms, will also be explored.

How to cite: Keating, A., Rubenstein, N., Campbell, K., Norton, R., Nash, D., Szoenyi, M., and Ianni, F.: Measuring resilience to multiple hazards: concepts, framework and application, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1387, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1387, 2022.

New tools and technologies for risk and resilience assessment and training
09:03–09:09
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EGU22-3436
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On-site presentation
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Eleftherios Ouzounoglou, Panagiotis Michalis, Claudia Berchtold, Maike Vollmer, Jeannette Anniés, and Angelos Amditis

The need to enhance individual and collective disaster resilience is becoming more urgent considering the increasingly complex and interconnected risks that arise from numerous natural, and not only hazardous, events. Many initiatives to encourage citizen participation in creating a resilient society exist, yet are typically fragmented. This fragmentation can result in unclear responsibilities for building disaster resilience to mitigate the impact of natural hazards. New emerging technologies can play a vital role in supporting the preparedness and response to disasters, however, there is limited understanding on how to implement them effectively during different phases of managing disaster risk. Traditionally, approaches used by Civil Protection Authorities (CPAs) to build resilience have focused on the managerial and technical aspects of ‘crisis’ response, whilst engagement with citizens about existing risks and preparedness measures have typically focused on one-way, top-down risk communication. At the same time, citizen and volunteer initiatives, often applying social media communication technologies, are created but are not necessarily coordinated with activities implemented by authorities. As a result, risk perceptions and actions of citizens, as well as the risk perceptions of citizens and CPAs remain frequently unaligned resulting in a Risk Perception Action Gap (RPAG).

This work presents the overall objectives of RiskPACC project, which focuses on increasing the preparedness actions undertaken by citizens and narrowing the Risk Perception Action Gap (RPAG). The project follows a co-creation approach that will facilitate interaction between citizens and CPAs by evolving their collaboration into a two-way communication flow. By jointly identifying their needs and develop potential procedural and technical solutions, disaster resilience before, during and after the occurrence of natural and human induced hazards can be enhanced. RiskPACC facilitates a collaboration between citizens, CPAs, Civil Society Organisations (CSOs), researchers and developers through seven case studies that will provide a live test bed to jointly design and prototype novel solutions. At the same time, a set of technological tools are also presented which include a framework and methodology to understand and close the RPAG, a repository of international best practice, and tooled solutions based on new forms of digital and community-centred data and associated training guidance. These are developed and integrated into an efficient platform that offer advanced information and co-operation to citizens and CPAs to enhance disaster risk management and enhance mitigation and adaptation actions to natural hazards.

Acknowledgments:

This research has been financed by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 101019707, project RiskPACC (Integrating Risk Perception and Action to enhance Civil protection-Citizen interaction). For more information about the RiskPACC project visit the website https://www.riskpacc.eu/.

How to cite: Ouzounoglou, E., Michalis, P., Berchtold, C., Vollmer, M., Anniés, J., and Amditis, A.: RiskPACC: Integrating risk perception and technological solutions to enhance response to natural hazards, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3436, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3436, 2022.

09:09–09:15
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EGU22-3508
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Panagiotis Michalis, Eleftherios Ouzounoglou, Lazaros Karagiannidis, Vangelis Tsougiannis, Maria Krommyda, Tina Katika, and Angelos Amditis

Natural hazards and climatic risks are considered as main issues for the resilience of the built environment. Recent projections also indicate that the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events will substantially increase [1], posing a significant threat for building disaster resilient societies. Emerging technologies can support preparedness and response to disasters; however, there is limited understanding on how to implement them effectively and in the majority of the cases they do not provide timely and advanced information in case of natural hazards to both citizens and protection authorities.

This study presents the development and application of a crowdsourcing solution, aiming to enable timely information to enhance preparedness and response phases to disastrous natural hazard events. The design process of the crowdsourcing solution places at the centre both relevant authorities and vulnerable citizens, aiming to deliver tools customised to their needs enhancing inclusivity and knowledge generation and exchange. The tool is built to directly disseminate early warnings, to offer real-time interaction between experts and vulnerable communities through targeted campaigns, to communicate effectively climatic risks to citizens, and finally, increase their disaster preparedness. It is coupled by Augmented Reality (AR) technology, which seamlessly blends real environments and virtual objects, in a user friendly, accessible, and easy-to-digest format, aiming to deliver a useful tool to citizens and CPAs [2]. The proposed solution empowers participation, enhances learning through virtual education material focused on climatic risks (e.g., flood related hazards, forest fires), and effectively communicates climatic risks to relevant authorities allowing for precautionary action to be employed in areas of concern. The developed solution has the potential to lead to improved understanding of climatic risks between CPAs and citizens, enabling to improve the anticipation of natural hazards towards building climate resilient societies.

Acknowledgments:

This research has been financed by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant Agreement No 101019707, project RiskPACC (Integrating Risk Perception and Action to enhance Civil protection-Citizen interaction). For more information about the RiskPACC project visit the website https://www.riskpacc.eu/.

References:

[1] Pytharouli, S., Michalis, P., Raftopoulos, S. (2019) From Theory to Field Evidence: Observations on the Evolution of the Settlements of an Earthfill Dam, over Long Time Scales. Infrastructures4, 65. https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures4040065

[2] Katika, K., Karaseitanidis, I., Tsiakou, D., Makropoulos, C., Amditis, A. (2021) Augmented Reality (AR) Supporting Citizen Engagement in Circular Economy, Circular Economy and Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1007/s43615-021-00137-7

How to cite: Michalis, P., Ouzounoglou, E., Karagiannidis, L., Tsougiannis, V., Krommyda, M., Katika, T., and Amditis, A.: Immersive technologies to proactively prepare for and effectively respond to natural disasters, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3508, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3508, 2022.

09:15–09:21
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EGU22-9506
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ECS
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Presentation form not yet defined
Chris Fairless, Emanuel Schmid, Amit Prothi, and David Bresch

We present the Rapid Economics of Climate Adaptation tool which releases later this year. Built to provide out-of-the-box risk modelling anywhere on the planet, the tool is a user-friendly interface exploring climate risk data and adaptation options in terms of economic and human impacts. In the back end it connects to the CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation) risk model which runs rapid calculations while the user navigates.

The tool is built to assess the economic and human impacts of natural disasters in different climate scenarios and to describe the co-benefits of adaptation measures. Of particular note is a new, quantitative description of social vulnerability, allowing the user to explore vulnerability-driven adaptation within and between communities.

This first version of the tool includes tropical cyclone wind and extreme heat hazards with human and economic exposure. It will be expanded with additional hazards, impacts and co-benefits over time, and will extend to cover impacts on biodiversity.

The tool is open source, with the web front end connecting to a new, public remote calculations API, where users (either on the site, from a separate python client or via HTTP requests) can trigger CLIMADA risk calculations.

We aim to support climate adaptation decision-makers without access to bespoke, often expensive, modelling or who don’t have the technical capacity to conduct their own studies.

The work is conducted by the Weather and Climate Risks Group at ETH Zurich, the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center and Vizzuality and is partly funded the Swiss Re Foundation.

How to cite: Fairless, C., Schmid, E., Prothi, A., and Bresch, D.: A risk model for everyone: supporting climate adaptation decisions based on economic and social vulnerability, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9506, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9506, 2022.

09:21–09:27
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EGU22-829
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ECS
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Highlight
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Presentation form not yet defined
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Solmaz Mohadjer, Joel C. Gill, Faith E. Taylor, and Caitlin Jay

Natural hazard scientists can contribute to the planning and development of sustainable and resilient communities through improved engagement in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Yet many scientists are uncertain of the steps they can take to effectively integrate their work into DRR. To address this challenge, we have developed an online, self-led training course designed for students and researchers interested in strengthening their engagement in DRR. The content of this online training course is based on a paper published in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-187-2021) and involved a peer feedback process in the development of each module. There are seven learning modules on the following topics: (1) multi-hazard environments, (2) effective partnerships, (3) stakeholder engagement, (4) cultural understanding, (5) equitable access to hazard information, (6) people centered DRR, and (7) DRR and sustainable development. Each module includes asynchronous video lectures, practice exercises, self-assessment tools and feedback mechanisms, and interviews with experts. While the course is designed for natural hazard researchers, it incorporates a variety of teaching and learning strategies to support a wide range of users including decision makers, practitioners and university students to contribute more effectively to the integrated work needed to improve DRR activities. The course is open-access and will be launched in May 2022 at https://www.open.edu/openlearncreate/course/view.php?id=7993. Development of this course was supported by the EGU Training School Fund.

How to cite: Mohadjer, S., Gill, J. C., Taylor, F. E., and Jay, C.: Building sustainable and resilient societies: An online training course to enhance natural hazard scientists’ contribution to disaster risk reduction, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-829, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-829, 2022.

09:27–09:33
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EGU22-13499
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Virtual presentation
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Demetris Christofi, Chris Danezis, Kyriacos Themistocleous, Haris Zacharatos, Nicholas Kyriakides, and Diofantos Hadjimitsis

This abstract explores the importance of integrating digital twins and earth observation for supporting natural disasters management in Cyprus. Indeed, this study shows how a digital twin will be developed based on existing sources of data like satellite imagery, maps, in situ data and other auxiliary data such as meteorological, hydrological data etc. This digital twin will be used to predict future conditions of a certain area of interest in Pafos District in Cyprus. The main aim is to update the proposed digital twin using satellite images such as Copernicus data for efficient decision making from the key stakeholders such as government and public authorities.

Several natural disasters have been identified in the national risk assessment of Cyprus as the main priorities such as floods, earthquakes, fires, landslides etc. In the proposed digital twin these four hazards will be considered. However, this abstract shows the prelimary results retrieved by examining the impact of floods in an area of interest in Pafos District area in Cyprus by integrating several data and techniques such as earth observation and hydrological modeling.

How to cite: Christofi, D., Danezis, C., Themistocleous, K., Zacharatos, H., Kyriakides, N., and Hadjimitsis, D.: The importance of integrating Digital Twins and Earth Observation to support resilient society applications in Cyprus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-13499, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-13499, 2022.

Resilience case studies and applications
09:33–09:39
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EGU22-5839
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ECS
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Nadja Veigel, Heidi Kreibich, and Andrea Cominola
Flood insurance is a straightforward way to provide resources for ex-post recovery from the damages caused by floods and, therefore, strengthen household resilience against this type of natural hazards. The US National Flood Insurance Program is the centralized source of flood insurance in the US providing more than 5 million policies in force today. However, only less than 5% of all US households are currently insured against flood damage. Understanding the determinants of flood insurance purchase is key to support the development of future resilience strategies. Yet, the question of which household characteristics and motivations lead to flood insurance purchase is still not answered. In this work we consider flood insurance adoption at the spatial scale of census tract (unit of ~ 3000 inhabitants) as an indicator for flood resilience. We test 397 candidate features to identify relevant determinants of flood resilience in the continentall US. Our feature set predominantly includes socio-economic variables from the American Community Survey, along with the flood history, rate discounts, and home ownership. We apply an explainable Machine Learning approach based on Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) to predict insurance coverage and estimated the SHAP values (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for each feature. SHAP values indicate the marginal contribution of each feature to the model output for every census tract. This enables us to understand how our data-driven model deducted the predictions and to reduce the initial set of candidate features to a subset of representative features that explain flood insurance adoptionWe found that insurance coverage at the whole US scale is driven by home ownership, previous flood severity and frequency, as well as financial incentives. Conversely, the impact of socio-economic background is marginal at this scale of aggregation. In other words, if a census tract experienced a very severe flood in the past, more inhabitants are insured, compared to inhabitants in census tracts with no direct experience of severe floods. The same counts for regular flooding, yet to a smaller degree. Also, people in census tracts which do not profit from their communities voluntarily implementing floodplain management strategies to acquire subsidized insurance rates are less willing to purchase private insurance. Our results overall suggest that households will get insured irrespective of their social background, if the community provides financial incentives by participating in the community rating system or has experienced severe flooding. Finallly, we identify areas prone to fluvial flooding (e.g., Lower Mississippi) with potential to improve flood resilience by community subsidization. Targeted risk communication should be aimed at urban areas with high fluctuation of inhabitants that are unaware of the flooding history.

How to cite: Veigel, N., Kreibich, H., and Cominola, A.: Exploring Behavioral Determinants of Flood Insurance Adoption with Explainable Machine Learning in the Continental US, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5839, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5839, 2022.

09:39–09:45
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EGU22-1373
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Adolfo Perez Estrada and Christian Dominguez Sarmiento

Tropical cyclones (TCs) from the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Ocean affect Mexico yearly. Their landfall  in the country produces not only water supply in semiarid regions, but also socioeconomic impacts in regions that are vulnerable to strong winds and heavy precipitation. The associated disasters have motivated the Mexican authorities to develop an Early Warning System for TCs (EWS-TC). However, this EWS-TC is still inefficient due to the definition of TC size (defined by the extension of winds at 34 knots, commonly called R34) and neglection of TC precipitation in the warnings. Here, we propose to use TC sizes that consider the TC rain bands, heavy precipitation and strong winds. To compute our TC size, we use a new parameterization of radial profile of winds and infrared satellite images, which leads to compute TC radii by quadrants, during the 2000-2020 period. We conclude that our TC size definition leads to better warnings than the use of R34. Suggestions on how resilience for facing TCs can be improved are also discussed.

How to cite: Perez Estrada, A. and Dominguez Sarmiento, C.: The role of tropical cyclone size in precipitation over Mexico , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1373, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1373, 2022.

09:45–09:51
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EGU22-8276
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ECS
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On-site presentation
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Yenny Alejandra Jiménez Donato, Carla Restrepo, Miguel Antonio Avila Mora, Sara Michelle Catalán Armas, Alberto Muñoz-Torrero Manchado, Markus Stoffel, and Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas

Tropical regions are particularly vulnerable to natural hazards and cascading disasters. The geography and geology of these regions, along with intense rainfall, high rates of weathering, environmental degradation and global warming, contribute to the increasing impact of hydro-meteorological hazards. More frequent and intense events introduce new risk factors that can exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The analysis of natural hazards in tropical regions faces several challenges, such as the lack of baseline data, which prevents the implementation of effective disaster risk reduction measures. Therefore, the integration of geomorphological, ecological and dendrological studies plays an important role in understanding the impacts of future events and building community resilience. Here we combine multiple sources of data and approaches, such as, remote sensing, field data acquisition, machine learning and physical modelling to develop an integrated coupled landslide-flood risk model for the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala. This risk analysis will strengthen the development and implementation of appropriate disaster risk reduction in rural communities.

Sierra de las Minas is a very complex region due to coalescing events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, land mass movements and floods. The impact of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 is used as a reference to understand the frequency and magnitude of these types of hydro-meteorological hazards, the triggering factors and the multi-hazard dynamics. The results are subsequently used to determine the potential socioeconomic impacts of a similar event under current conditions of vulnerability and exposure. The potential socioeconomic losses are then compared to the impacts of hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020. This information will be used to propose adaptation strategies, such as community-based early warning systems, pedestrian evacuation models and storytelling projects, that will help reduce the underlying vulnerabilities of the community to better respond to potential events to which it is exposed.

How to cite: Jiménez Donato, Y. A., Restrepo, C., Avila Mora, M. A., Catalán Armas, S. M., Muñoz-Torrero Manchado, A., Stoffel, M., and Ballesteros Cánovas, J. A.: Enhancing resilience of vulnerable rural communities against hydrometeorological hazards in tropical mountains. A case study from the Sierra de las Minas, Guatemala. , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-8276, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-8276, 2022.

09:51–09:57
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EGU22-1569
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Min Zhang, Yufu Liu, Yixiong Xiao, Wenqi Sun, Chen Zhang, Yong Wang, and Yuqi Bai

    The concept of Healthy Cities, introduced by the World Health Organization, demonstrates the value of health for the whole urban system. As one of the most important components of urban systems, transportation plays an important role in Healthy Cities. Many transportation evaluation systems focus on factors such as road networks, parking spaces, transportation speed, accessibility, convenience, and commuting time, while the vulnerability and resilience of urban transportation are rarely evaluated. This study presents the preliminary progress in the evaluation of traffic vulnerability and resilience during precipitation events in 39 Chinese cities. Traffic congestion index data, derived from the Baidu Map Smart Transportation Platform, and rainfall data, derived from NASA’s global precipitation measurement, are utilized. Traffic vulnerability index, traffic resilience index, and the corresponding quantitative methods are proposed, and the analysis results are presented. This study is of value in improving the understanding of urban traffic vulnerability and resilience, and in enabling the quantitative evaluation of them in urban health assessment and the Healthy Cities program.

How to cite: Zhang, M., Liu, Y., Xiao, Y., Sun, W., Zhang, C., Wang, Y., and Bai, Y.: Vulnerability and Resilience of Urban Traffic to Precipitation in China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1569, 2022.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Viktor Rözer, Finn Laurien, Demet Intepe
10:20–10:26
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EGU22-5892
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Yaan Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Carmine Galasso

Earthen dwellings are highly vulnerable to earthquake-induced ground shaking and are widely distributed in earthquake-prone and underdeveloped rural areas in the Yunnan Province, China. In the past 30 years, 78 earthquakes with a surface-wave magnitude (Mw) greater than 5.0 struck Yunnan Province, with rural earthen dwellings contributing the most to casualties and building damages. In recent years, national and local governments in China promulgated various seismic retrofit and risk mitigation policies for rural areas, along with seismic retrofit techniques gradually being implemented in practice.

This presentation will review policies and seismic retrofit techniques for rural earthen dwellings in Yunnan Province, discussing their seismic mitigation effectiveness based on a post-disaster field survey of the Mw 6.1 Yangbi earthquake in May 2021 and other historical earthquake disaster data. Comparisons of (1) the damage states of earthen dwellings with and without retrofit; and (2) statistical damage data of earthen dwellings during the Yangbi earthquake and historical earthquakes are analyzed and discussed in detail.

The analysis results show that the seismic retrofit measures effectively mitigated the seismic effect on rural earthen dwellings and greatly improved rural communities' resilience. Lessons learned are highlighted, and recommendations from the study are finally proposed.

How to cite: Wang, Y., Wang, M., Liu, K., and Galasso, C.: Seismic retrofit policies and their effectiveness for rural earthen dwellings in China: lessons from the Yunnan Province case study, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5892, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5892, 2022.

10:26–10:32
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EGU22-2759
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Presentation form not yet defined
Wen - Yen Lin and Chi-tung Hung

According to the IPCC report, Taiwan is threatened by global warming and high frequency and influence of extreme weather, which will result in great impacts to its agriculture industry and the future of food security. Unfortunately, along with the rapid economic development and urbanization in Taiwan since the 1960’s, agricultural land use has become less competitive to industrial, commercial, and residential types of land uses under land use competition. To effectively enhance the resilience and conserve the agricultural lands which under the threats of climate change and the competitions of other types of land use, Taiwan’s Spatial Planning Act (promulgated on 2016/1/6) enlists Agricultural Development Zones, one of four major functional zones in National Spatial Plan, into demarcated functional zone and applying land use control. The zoning plan is expected to be completed by every city and county before the year of 2025, and one of the major issues is to consider the land use function changes of different locations. By comparing the 2007 and 2016 land utilization maps investigated by National Land Surveying and Mapping Center, this study identifies the 10-year changes of agricultural lands of northern Yilan county. To further investigate the spatial distribution of agricultural land changes, spatial analysis techniques such as multi-distance spatial cluster analysis (Ripley’s K Function) and Kernel density are employed to analyze the spatial clustering of changes. The spatial analysis results overlays with hazard risk maps, such as flooding, landslide, soil liquefaction, to support the decision making of future agricultural land planning.

How to cite: Lin, W.-Y. and Hung, C.: Land Use Changes and Agricultural Land Planning under Climate Change– A Case Study of Northern Yilan County, Taiwan, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-2759, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2759, 2022.

10:32–10:38
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EGU22-9246
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Virtual presentation
Barry Hankin, Lorena Ramirez, Ian Wood, Anthony Green, Eric Quincieu, Yoas Lauren, and Mark Lawless

Indonesia has severe flood risk from multiple sources, with average annual loss due to flooding estimated to be 33 trillion IDR (US$2.3 billion). Impacts from severe flooding is significant and a growing concern in Indonesia. Since 2001, on average, flooding results in 260 deaths per year, 14,000 people injured, 1.5 million people impacted or evacuated, and over 283,000 houses flooded. The annual budget managed Indonesian Government for investment in flood management is in the order of 7 trillion IDR (about US $493 million).

Prioritisation of budget expenditure therefore requires understanding of a diverse range of factors, including understanding of available hazard data across multiple flood sources, the distribution of risk at the basin scale, and preferences for equitable distribution of budgets and schemes in the pipeline. In a process of capacity building and training with government technical departments, a range of approaches were demonstrated and applied to a test basin, Bengaman Solo, Java. This included identifying areas of high risk based on different hazards and receptors, using a range of metrics from people at risk to economics, and key services against which to compare proposed schemes. Spatio-economic information on planned investments were prepared in a long-term roadmap as part of the project. It also involved understanding residual risk when different spatial strategies are deployed, and a new National Integrated Risk Analytics (NIRA) tool developed for the Asian Development Bank allows users to introduce a range of mixed measures from nature-based-solutions to property-level-resilience, defences and flood early warning system.

Having explored the use of all these tools a prioritisation process was co-developed and made flexible such that assumptions could be iterated to bring in local knowledge, new data such as climate change sensitivity or subsidence. The outcome has been a process that incorporates the best available hazard and risk data nationally across different sources, supported by a range of steps for which on-line training modules are available.

How to cite: Hankin, B., Ramirez, L., Wood, I., Green, A., Quincieu, E., Lauren, Y., and Lawless, M.: Integrated flood risk management prioritization in Indonesia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9246, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9246, 2022.

10:38–10:44
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EGU22-9466
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Deepak Kc, Michel Jaboyedoff, Marc-Henri Derron, Sanjaya Devkota, and Deepak Kc

Keywords: Nature Based Solutions, Climate Change Adaptation, Disaster Risk Reduction, rural livelihood  , Nepal Himalayas

Abstract:

Climate has been changing and has considerable impacts on the livelihood of rural/urban communities all around the globe. The impacts however are more pronounced in the mountainous region such as in the Dudhkosi Basin (~4,063km2) in eastern Nepal. Studies suggested that the mountainous region of Nepal are climate-sensitive meaning that a small change in air temperature could bring significant impacts on the environmental degradation process and increase the frequency of climate-induced hazards and risk of disasters. In order to understand the dynamics of the changing climate on rural livelihood, this research attempted to model the environmental vulnerability of the basin considering the topographic and environmental attributes and assessed their contribution to the physical environmental degradation process. Multi-criteria based Decision Analysis (MCDA) approaches were implemented considering the seven primary topographic attributes such as slope, soil type, land use, NDVI, elevation, distance to drainage, and terrain wetness. The model was implemented for the three scenarios of rainfall such as historical and projected precipitation for RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 as a climate change variable and distance to the rural roads as an anthropogenic factor to model the physical environmental degradation there by the vulnerability. The analysis depicted that the slope attributes has the highest contribution (20.21%) among all followed by precipitation, soil type, land use, distance to road, distance to drainage, terrain wetness and NDVI respectively 18.5%, 14.3%, 12.56%, 10.75%, 9.63%, 7.55% and 6.5%. The analysis clearly indicated that the slope is one of the most critical attributes where many settlements are located and have a significant contribution to the land-degradation process of the mountainous region. While the increasing trend of rainfall will cause more soil erosion and shallow landslides compounded due to the unplanned construction of rural roads thereby more area of the basin under the threat of degradation. The model also indicated that the increased amount of degraded land for the projected precipitation scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively increased from 7% to 15%. The increased amount of degradation will cause more communities living on the sloping terrain will turn to be vulnerable. The analysis demonstrated in this research suggested that the basin is at high threat of land degradation under the climate change scenarios for which an integrated basin management plan is to be developed. Integrated approach for Building Climate Resilience is the key in which the Nature-Based Solutions measures as climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. The measures also  improve the watershed conditions that subsequently enhance the quality of the lives of the people with increased economic opportunities and coping capacity for the climate change induced disasters and community resiliency.

 

How to cite: Kc, D., Jaboyedoff, M., Derron, M.-H., Devkota, S., and Kc, D.: Assessing the Environmental vulnerability and its impacts on livelihood in Dudhkoshi Basin in Eastern Nepal, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9466, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9466, 2022.

10:44–10:50
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EGU22-11196
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
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Dr. Nikolaos Tavoularis

Slope failures represent a major threat to human life and infrastructure in many countries all over the world and they often lead to significant and long-lasting disruptions of economic, social and ecological systems. This paper aims to describe civil engineering approaches to apply resilience assessment framework as well as a methodology using a model aiming to quantify slope instability. Regional Authority of Attica in Greece effectively works for their hazard affected communities. A particular case study where applied resilience civil engineering frameworks as well as a semi-quantitative methodology to engage with different stakeholders, is described from Attica Region, on Provincial Road 3 (Dekelias Street segment) near the stream Chelidonous in the Municipality of Kifissia.

A supporting study was carried out in the context of the restoration of the road surface and the stability of the stream slopes. The results of the geotechnical survey and study are presented in brief and the measures proposed by the study to support the slopes are described. The hazard of the existing condition of the encountered slopes adjacent to the roadway was confirmed using the Rock Engineering System (RES). Civil engineering approach and RES methodology provide targeted resilience strengthening investments and actions across, that are increasingly demanded in the context of climate change adaptation and sustainable development.

How to cite: Tavoularis, Dr. N.: Towards the resilience of Attica Region’s Provincial Road 3 in Greece, due to slope failure by applying civil engineering techniques and Rock Engineering System assessment, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11196, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11196, 2022.

10:50–11:05