A risk analysis framework: Key risks from permafrost thaw in Arctic coastal areas

This paper presents the results from fieldwork conducted in three focal areas of the “Nunataryuk” EU H2020 permafrost project: the Nordic Area (Greenland and Svalbard), the Beaufort Sea Area in Canada (Northwest Territories/ Inuvialuit Settlement Region and Gwich’in First Nation Traditional Territory) and Northeastern Siberia in Russia. The paper analyzes the entanglement between social and environmental change and presents a risk analysis framework, including the interconnected geo-physical & socio-cultural risks, with the aim to improve adaptation and mitigation strategies of local communities. Guided by a mixed-methods approach, the research outcomes are the result of field-based research, including focus groups, qualitative interviews, participant observation, community workshops – as well as a quantitative survey in three settlements (Qeqertarsuaq in Greenland, Aklavik in Canada and Longyearbyen on Svalbard).