HS5.5

EDI
Multi-scale water-energy-land nexus planning to manage socio-economic, climatic, and technological change

The world's energy, water, and land systems are in transition and rapidly integrating, driven by forces such as socioeconomic, demographic, climatic, and technological changes as well as policies intended to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other societal priorities. These dynamics weave across spatial scales, connecting global markets and trends to regional and sub-regional economies. At the same time, resources are often locally managed under varying administrative jurisdictions closely tied to inherent characteristics of each commodity such as river basins for water, grid regions for electricity and land-use boundaries for agriculture. Local decisions, in turn, are critical in deciding the aggregate success and consequences of national and global policies. Thus, there is a growing need to better characterise the energy-water-land nexus to guide robust and consistent decision making across these scales under changing climate.

This session aims to address this challenge for the energy-water-land nexus in nascent infrastructure planning and sectoral transitions. Contributions can include work dealing with applications of existing nexus approaches in sustainability assessment and design of future developments at different scales (i.e. urban to regional planning), as well as new methods that address existing gaps related to incorporating processes at different scales, bridging data gaps, improving optimisation approaches, or dealing with transboundary issues.

Public information:

Join us after the session for a social event.

CLEWs Nexus social @EGU2022

All welcome

Come and meet others working on the climate- land-energy-water nexus for some drinks and networking. Food also available from various places nearby.

When: Monday, 23rd May from 18.15 

Where: around the Krokodu bar at Copa Beach

http://www.kroko-copabeach.com/ 

Coordinates: 48.232188, 16.409343

Directions: https://g.page/kroko-copabeach?share

Coming out of Austria Centre, turn left and head down the ramp towards the U-Bahn. Make a right and go up the stairs just before the E-Wok restaurant. Walk all along the promenade walkway towards the river. Down the ramp at the end, then head gently to the right.

Google map walking directions: https://goo.gl/maps/MhRqJX4RxseE6JGaA

Bad weather plan – if alternative indoor location not decided, event will be cancelled. Check @edwardbyers twitter

Co-organized by ERE1
Convener: Edo Abraham | Co-conveners: Zarrar KhanECSECS, Edward A. ByersECSECS, Yue QinECSECS
Presentations
| Mon, 23 May, 13:20–14:26 (CEST)
 
Room 3.29/30
Public information:

Join us after the session for a social event.

CLEWs Nexus social @EGU2022

All welcome

Come and meet others working on the climate- land-energy-water nexus for some drinks and networking. Food also available from various places nearby.

When: Monday, 23rd May from 18.15 

Where: around the Krokodu bar at Copa Beach

http://www.kroko-copabeach.com/ 

Coordinates: 48.232188, 16.409343

Directions: https://g.page/kroko-copabeach?share

Coming out of Austria Centre, turn left and head down the ramp towards the U-Bahn. Make a right and go up the stairs just before the E-Wok restaurant. Walk all along the promenade walkway towards the river. Down the ramp at the end, then head gently to the right.

Google map walking directions: https://goo.gl/maps/MhRqJX4RxseE6JGaA

Bad weather plan – if alternative indoor location not decided, event will be cancelled. Check @edwardbyers twitter

Presentations: Mon, 23 May | Room 3.29/30

Chairpersons: Adriano Vinca, Edo Abraham, Edward A. Byers
13:20–13:22
13:22–13:32
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EGU22-9311
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ECS
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solicited
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Lotte de Vos, Hester Biemans, Jonathan C Doelman, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P van Vuuren

With a growing population and a changing climate, competition for water resources in the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is expected to increase. In this study, competing water demands between food production, freshwater ecosystems and utilities (energy, industries and households) are quantified. The potential trade-offs and related impacts are elaborated for different SSP scenarios with the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which includes the global vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL). Results for the 2045–2054 period are evaluated at the global scale and for a selection of 14 hotspot basins and coastal zones. On the global scale, we estimate that an additional 1.7 billion people could potentially face severe water shortage for electricity, industries and households if food production and environmental flows would be prioritized. Zooming in on the hotspots, this translates to up to 70% of the local population. Results furthermore show that up to 33% of river length in the hotspots risks not meeting environmental targets when prioritizing other water demands in the nexus. For local food production, up to 41% might be lost due to competing water demands. The potential trade-offs quantified in this study highlight the competition for resources in the WEF nexus, for which impacts are most notably felt at local scales. This emphasizes the need to simultaneously consider different dimensions of the nexus when developing scenarios that aim to achieve multiple sustainability targets.

How to cite: de Vos, L., Biemans, H., Doelman, J. C., Stehfest, E., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Trade-offs between water needs for food, utilities, and the environment—a nexus quantification at different scales, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-9311, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-9311, 2022.

13:32–13:38
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EGU22-1826
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Dandan Zhao, Junguo Liu, Laixiang Sun, Bin Ye, Klaus Hubacek, Kuishuang Feng, and Olli Varis

Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China

 

Dandan Zhao a,b, Junguo Liub,, Laixiang Sunc,d,e,, Bin Ye b, Klaus Hubacekf, Kuishuang Fengc, Olli Varisa

 

a Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, PO Box 15200, 00076 Espoo, Finland

b School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, China

c Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA

d School of Finance and Management, SOAS, University of London, London, UK

e Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai,

f Integrated Research of Energy, Environment and Society (IREES) , University of Groningen, the Netherlands

 

Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water as[1]sessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a “nexus” approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios includ[1]ing nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposi[1]tion of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.

How to cite: Zhao, D., Liu, J., Sun, L., Ye, B., Hubacek, K., Feng, K., and Varis, O.: Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1826, 2022.

13:38–13:44
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EGU22-3637
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ECS
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Presentation form not yet defined
Chelsea Kaandorp, Nick van de Giesen, and Edo Abraham

Transitioning towards renewable heating is important to minimise the use of fossil fuels and abate carbon emissions, because heating accounts for 50% of the final energy consumption and 40% of carbon dioxide emissions globally. In the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, the aim is to transition towards renewable heating by 2040 and achieve carbon-neutral heating by 2050 through a neighbourhood-based approach. Such an approach entails that per neighbourhood a renewable heat solution is chosen  based on criteria such as carbon emissions, reliability, affordability and feasibility. The impacts of urban heating systems however goes beyond a neighbourhood, and take place on multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this presentation we discuss how a transition towards renewable heating systems can influence the water-energy-land nexus on multiple scales in three ways.

First, heating systems use water locally, but also indirectly through the water footprint embedded in energy carriers. We therefore present an analysis of the direct and indirect water use of heating pathways towards 2050. Second, heating systems which currently have the lowest carbon emissions, may not be the heat option with the lowest carbon emissions in the future. Current decisions for heat options can therefore create non-optimal solutions for minimising carbon emissions in the future. An optimization model to find a mix of heating systems to reduce committed emissions on a neighbourhood scale within a given time period for different scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation is therefore presented. At last, new norms and forms of organising neighbourhood-based heating systems may emerge, potentially creating or exacerbating social inequalities within and beyond the spatial boundaries of a neighbourhood. We therefore present the preliminary results of an analysis on energy justice based on in-depth interviews with urban professionals, dwellers and decision makers in Amsterdam. 

By presenting these three studies we aim to address the challenge of multi-scale impacts of transitioning towards renewable urban energy systems and show how energy-water-land nexus research can contribute to decision making for urban infrastructures.

How to cite: Kaandorp, C., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Integrated assessment of renewable urban heating systems considering water use, committed emissions and energy justice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3637, 2022.

13:44–13:50
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EGU22-10568
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Marko Adamovic, Ad de Roo, Berny Bisselink, and Bruna Grizzetti

Thermal power plants consume large amounts of water for electricity generation, mainly for cooling purposes that is later discharged back to riverine eco-systems. Increase in water temperature of the river systems and oceans is becoming the real environmental challenge to tackle, posed by the accelerated changes in climate change.  

In this study, new high-resolution data set of the water temperature projections of the main rivers in Europe due to climate change has been created using the new LISTEMP water resources model. We developed the new model called LISTEMP as a result of online coupling between the LISFLOOD open source hydrological model and newly developed water temperature module that runs on a 5 km grid and solved using a semi-Lagrangian numerical scheme. The results are based on 11 climate models which project current and future climate under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenario. We assess thermal plant's vulnerability to water temperature changes as climate change continues.  

We conclude that operations and maintenance of many thermal power plants could be at risk due to the water temperature change since their efficiency and performance depend mostly on a possibility to intake huge quantities of cooling water. Furthermore, we identified the hot spots in Europe where current power plants urge for technological change in order to be more resilient to climate. We also detect spots where plants are returning water at a temperature above the ecologically desirable ranges due to climate change. Knowledge acquired in this study and dataset contribute to multi-scale water-energy-food nexus and Common Fisheries Policy for conserving fish stocks with future climate.

 

How to cite: Adamovic, M., de Roo, A., Bisselink, B., and Grizzetti, B.: High-resolution water temperature impact assessment on thermal power plants operations in Europe and riverine ecosystems , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10568, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10568, 2022.

13:50–13:56
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EGU22-4006
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Luuk Timmer, Jikke Van Wijnen, and Angelique Lansu

Nature-based solutions (NbS) in brook catchments are considered as climate measures to adapt to hydro-meteorological extremes (storms, floods, droughts) and human-induced water demand. These NbS, often wetlands at multiple scales, cause land-use change (LUC), e.g., from cropland into wetland. Furthermore, LUC is also caused by other anthropogenic reasons (e.g., urbanization, channeling).

To improve this modelling by incorporating multi-scale spatial and temporal aspects, earlier studies modelled LUC and carbon pools, but did this without a regional focus on the impact of NbS. A system analysis of a brook catchment (Dutch Aa/Weerijs; 147 km2; S of Breda)  determines the spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and its connection to carbon pools including the climate mitigation impact of NbS. The question arises if ready-to-use tools can help to connect the associated spatio-temporal datasets, to support professionals in regional development on rapid appraisal of carbon pool dynamics and impacts of NbS.

Firstly, in a pilot study, a system analysis of LUC and temporal carbon pool data has been developed on open access datasets (e.g., open topo and land registry). To get an outlook for 2050, 1960 was taken as a starting point because the brook catchment, including the brook itself, transformed just after 1960. To determine historic spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and carbon pools, 2010 was chosen. Then, the landscape is predicted for 2050 in two scenarios: A Technical/physical scenario (in which a business-as-usual situation is considered) and a NbS/Wetlands scenario which focusses on NbS and in particular on wetlands. Four terrestrial carbon pools within seven land-use categories have been used. Land-use classification for 1960 and 2010 has been done with topographic maps and ArcGIS. Land-use prediction for 2050 has been done with a Land Change Modeler (TerrSet2020, ClarkLabs) with land-use from 1960 and 2010 as input data.

Secondly, the results of the pilot study have been validated by a field visit and regional professionals with expertise on LUC and carbon pools. As a third step, the updated, validated method has been applied to the whole Dutch catchment.

Findings indicate that 40 km2 (≈ 27%) transformed between 1960 and 2010 with an impact on terrestrial carbon of + 0.5 Mton (≈ +50% change: 1 Mton in 1960 and 1.5 Mton in 2010). Findings for 2050 are:

  • For the Technical-physical scenario a minor increase of terrestrial carbon. This will probably be explained by settlement expansion and by the increase areal of tree nursery. Tree nursery is especially a land-use category that emerges in the study area.
  • For the NbS/Wetlands scenario, which emphasizes wetlands as nature-based solutions, a major increase of terrestrial carbon. This is explained by the increase of the areal of wetlands.

In this study we presented an approach where a combination of tools - a land change modeler and ArcGIS - can be used for a rapid assessment of mitigating effects on climate adaptation measures. This offers water professionals the opportunity to meet the many challenges on NbS in brook/river basins.

How to cite: Timmer, L., Van Wijnen, J., and Lansu, A.: Nature-based solutions in brook catchments: Modelling land-use change and its impact on terrestrial carbon pools (1960 – 2010 – 2050)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4006, 2022.

13:56–14:02
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EGU22-10882
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Muhammad Awais, Adriano Vinca, Edward Byers, Oliver Fricko, Stefan Frank, Yusuke Satoh, Volker Krey, and Keywan Riahi

IIASA’s Integrated Assessment Model (IAM), MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM is used in various assessments to understand scenarios of socio-economic development within the energy and land systems across scales (global, country, basin). However, the representation of climate impacts and water systems within IAMs until now has been limited. The study goes a step forward on improving the representation of climate impacts and the capability to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources in a dynamic system simultaneously. It uses spatially resolved representation of water systems to retain hydrological information without compromising computational complexity, and simplified water availability and key infrastructure assumptions mapped with the energy and land systemsThe results from this study inform the required regional and sectoral investments pathways across mitigation and non-mitigation pathways. The results also highlight the importance of water as a constraint in energy and land-use decisions and implications of global responses to the limited water availability from water resources – renewable water, non-renewable groundwater, desalinated water 

How to cite: Awais, M., Vinca, A., Byers, E., Fricko, O., Frank, S., Satoh, Y., Krey, V., and Riahi, K.: Integrating climate impacts across energy, water, land systems within a global framework , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10882, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10882, 2022.

14:02–14:08
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EGU22-10955
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Behdad Saed, Amin Elshorbagy, and Saman Razavi

As global water, energy, and food (WEF) demands are continuously increasing because of population growth, climate change, and the modernization of the human lifestyle, sustainable resource management is of prime importance. Societies have been struggling with the planning and management of WEF resources under changing population, climate, and ecosystem. Integrated resource management is essential to achieve optimal and sustainable WEF management as sector-centric (e.g. water-centric) management can lead to poor outcome. To that end, WEF nexus as a multi-centric approach has been introduced to emphasize interlinkages among WEF sectors. Such interlinkages need to be identified, quantified, and analyzed to facilitate sustainable WEF resources management.

This study aims to conduct a quantitative data analysis within the WEF nexus context to identify the interrelationships among WEF sectors and to understand how each sector interacts with other sectors in the Canadian Prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) individually, and as a whole over the period 1990-2020. Historical data used in this study are at annual temporal and provincial spatial resolution. A correlation-and-causality analysis has been conducted for different pairs of WEF sectors to measure the degree of relationships and to explore the cause-and-effects between each pair of sectors. The Multispatial Convergent Cross Mapping method, as a causal inference tool, has been used for identifying and assessing the causal relations. Determining the causal relationships among WEF sectors helps researchers identify critical components, of a large and complex system, for further investigation and modelling. It can also guide policy-makers for better allocation of resources.

Results showed that water has a stronger influence on food and energy than the other way around in the upstream province of Alberta. It was also found that food had more influence on energy than the other way around in the three prairie provinces. This study is a step forward toward a better understanding of the WEF nexus by using causal inference methods for tracking the strength of interactions to identify dominant sectors at both the provincial and regional scales. This can help build more parsimonious and efficient WEF nexus models for further simulation and scenario analysis.

How to cite: Saed, B., Elshorbagy, A., and Razavi, S.: Causality Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Canadian Prairies , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10955, 2022.

14:08–14:14
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EGU22-6964
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Mel George, Sha Yu, Leon Clarke, and Jae Edmonds

The COP26 in Glasgow produced a Paris Agreement rulebook for international cooperation through carbon markets under Article 6. The intent of Article 6 is to enhance mitigation ambition by utilizing efficiency gains from trading and to cooperatively implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs) while avoiding double-counting. Such international emissions trading forms the bedrock to mobilize public and private sector investment flows to meet ambitious climate goals. At the same time, a growing body of research concludes that there are important links between mitigation and other societal objectives, such as those embodied in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Such local and national decisions which consider co-benefits and tradeoffs on some of the SDGs, in turn, are critical in deciding the aggregate success and consequences of global policies. This raises the question of how emissions trading may enable or hinder SDG attainment and how different countries might value their participation in such markets.

 

Countries view their own climate mitigation efforts through a more comprehensive lens than mere emissions reduction, and the links with societal outcomes would influence their consideration of comparability and participation in emissions trading markets. The success of these markets in enhancing ambition would depend on perceptions of the relationships of mitigation with local and regional societal goals around water, energy & land use. The degree of congruence between these relationships could influence future climate negotiations and market design.

 

In this paper, using a global integrated assessment model (GCAM: Global Change Analysis Model, ver. 5.4), we demonstrate that spatial and temporal distributions of the influence of Article 6 emissions markets on a subset of the broader SDGs may differ. We use a subset of sustainability metrics related to the energy-water-land nexus issues. Our analysis of these metrics tracks the interconnected nature of human and earth systems under different emission market designs for 10 key geographical regions (USA, EU, China, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa & Latin America) from 2030 to 2050, under a consistent integrated framework. This allows us to assess the local implications of emissions market design on energy access, prices & security, water consumption for different applications, food prices and forest area changes. We include the effects of redistribution and international financial transfers. We demonstrate these effects on the energy-water-land nexus for different national and global mitigation scenarios: the recently updated NDCs, a net zero emissions target in 2050 and a scenario which allows countries to reach net zero goals based on equity principles.    

 

Our results imply that global cooperation in markets can be altered if interactions between mitigation and local effects on the energy-water-land triad were accounted for. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the extent to which these distributions differ depends on market design and pricing of nature-based mitigation options.

 

Our analysis provides a foundation for assessing how global emission market schemes under Article 6 could be better understood in the local developmental contexts of energy, water & land use changes.

How to cite: George, M., Yu, S., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J.: Global emission trade market design and local outcomes on the water-energy-land nexus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6964, 2022.

14:14–14:20
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EGU22-11545
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ECS
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Presentation form not yet defined
Ichrak Khammessi, Serge Brouyère, Jalel Aouissi, adel zghibi, Ali Mirchi, Anis Chkirbene, Amira Merzougui, Mohamed Haythem Msaddek, and Hamadi Habaieb

Coastal aquifers are usually the main source of water supply for irrigation, drinking
and industrial purposes in coastal regions. They are often subject to overexploitation and
consequent quantitative and qualitative degradation. The groundwater flow system of the Chiba
watershed in the CapBon peninsula (NE of Tunisia) is a typical case of an overexploited aquifer,
where a piezometric depression exceeding -10 m (a.m.s.l) appeared has developed over the two
last decades. Among the numerous remediation tentatives, the SMART-WATER project aimed
to propose a remediation plan based on a smart monitoring and water-energy nexus solution
through the installation of smart energy and water meters (SEWM). This technology aims to
optimize groundwater pumping at a set of selected representative farming systems in the
watershed. In this context, a first coupled surface water-groundwater flow model has been
developed and applied, coupled with energy nexus for the irrigated Chiba plain. The model is
implemented using a dynamic coupling between MODFLOW WEAP and LEAP in order to
assess the SEWM system efficiency in reducing aquifer exploitation and electrical energy
consumption at farm level. Multi-objective calibration of the model using river discharge and
GW level data has yielded accurate simulation of historical conditions, and resulted in better-
constrained parameters compared to using either data source alone. Model simulations show that
crop water demand cannot be met during droughts due to limited GW pumping capacity, and that
increased GW pumping has a relatively strong impact on GW levels due to the small specific
yield of the aquifer. Groundwater and energy models have also revealed that, under different
management and climatic scenarios, electric energy consumption and groundwater table decline
are intricately connected. Despite the short monitoring period and the intermittence of the
received data, SEWMs have shown a promising role in monitoring groundwater pumping and
engaging farmers in energy saving and aquifer sustainability.

How to cite: Khammessi, I., Brouyère, S., Aouissi, J., zghibi, A., Mirchi, A., Chkirbene, A., Merzougui, A., Msaddek, M. H., and Habaieb, H.: Integrated surface and groundwater resources management in a coastal aquifer (Cap BonPeninsula-NE of Tunisia), EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11545, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11545, 2022.

14:20–14:26
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EGU22-12998
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ECS
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Mengqi Zhao, Thomas Wild, Brinda Yarlagadda, Leon Clarke, and Gokul Iyer

Limiting end-of-century temperature rise to 1.5-2 degrees C will require achieving net-zero CO2 emissions globally by 2050. Toward this goal, the Government of Colombia (GoC) is crafting a portfolio of actions (i.e., a mid-century strategy) that will not only substantially reduce emissions but also perform well across a range of societal objectives, despite the many uncertainties to which those actions will be exposed. In collaboration with a diverse array of stakeholders, here we seek to discover which actions hold promise for Colombia to achieve its climate and other societal objectives under a range of future uncertainties. The most effective mix of actions from Colombia’s perspective maybe those that create a solid near-term foundation for future ambitious action, and also those that avoid poor performance (across multiple societal objectives) under future uncertainty. This presentation will identify key elements of a robust decarbonization strategy for Colombia, and understand which sources of uncertainty may be critical to acknowledge and better understand.

It is not possible to assign meaningful probabilities to scenarios that consist of complex combinations of policy actions (i.e., levers) and uncertainties. However, it is possible to discover which scenarios, or combinations of levers and uncertainties, drive consequential outcomes across societal objectives. We use the “XLRM” conceptual organizing framework for defining this immense challenge and its possible solutions in Colombia, including: policy levers ("L"), such as renewable portfolio standards and electric vehicles deployment; future uncertainties ("X") such as socioeconomic change, technological change, and climatic change; and metrics ("M") for evaluating the relevant societal outcomes that result from the implementation of levers in uncertain future worlds, such as air quality, food security, water security, energy access, land use change, and economic development. To map policy levers to key outcomes (metrics) under uncertainty, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) v5.3 to explore the order of 10,000 GCAM scenarios reflecting diverse futures. The study focuses on a set of questions, and a methodological approach, that have immediate relevance to Colombia but also broader applications both within Latin America and beyond to the rest of the world.

How to cite: Zhao, M., Wild, T., Yarlagadda, B., Clarke, L., and Iyer, G.: Exploring Uncertainty Surrounding Deep Decarbonization Pathways: Application to Colombia, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-12998, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-12998, 2022.