HS5.5

Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China

Dandan Zhao ^a,b, Junguo Liu^b,∗, Laixiang Sun^c,d,e,∗, Bin Ye ^b, Klaus Hubacek^f, Kuishuang Feng^c, Olli Varis^a

a Water & Development Research Group, Aalto University, PO Box 15200, 00076 Espoo, Finland

b School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, China

c Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA

d School of Finance and Management, SOAS, University of London, London, UK

e Institute of Blue and Green Development, Weihai Institute of Interdisciplinary Research, Shandong University, Weihai，

f Integrated Research of Energy, Environment and Society (IREES) , University of Groningen, the Netherlands

Sustainable water management is one of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and is characterized by a high level of interdependencies with other SDGs from regional to global scales. Many water as[1]sessment studies are restricted to silo thinking, mostly focusing on water-related consequences, while lacking a quantification of trade-offs and synergies of economic, social, and environmental dimensions. To fill this knowledge gap, we propose a “nexus” approach that integrates a water supply constrained multi-regional input-output (mixed MRIO) model, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to quantify the trade-offs and synergies at the sectoral level for the capital region of China, i.e. the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. A total of 120 industrial transition scenarios includ[1]ing nine major industries with high water-intensities and water consumption under current development pathways were developed to facilitate the trade-off and synergy analysis between economic loss, social goals (here, the number of jobs) and environmental protection (with grey water footprint representing water pollution) triggered by water conservation measures. Our simulation results show that an imposi[1]tion of a tolerable water constraint (a necessary water consumption reduction for regional water stress level to move from severe to moderate) in the region would result in an average economic loss of 68.4 (± 16.0) billion Yuan (1 yuan ≈ 0.158 USD$ in 2012), or 1.3 % of regional GDP, a loss of 1.94 (± 0.18) million jobs (i.e. 3.5 % of the work force) and a reduction of 1.27 (± 0.40) billion m3 or about 2.2% of the regional grey water footprint. A tolerable water rationing in water-intensive sectors such as Agriculture, Food and tobacco processing, Electricity and heating power production and Chemicals would result in the lowest economic and job losses and the largest environmental benefits. Based on MCDA, we selected the 10 best scenarios with regard to their economic, social and environmental performances as references for guiding future water management and suggested industrial transition policies. This integrated approach could be a powerful policy support tool for 1) assessing trade-offs and synergies among multiple criteria and across multiple region-sectors under resource constraints; 2) quantifying the short-term supply-chain effects of different containment measures, and 3) facilitating more insightful evaluation of SDGs at the regional level so as to determine priorities for local governments and practitioners to achieve SDGs.

How to cite: Zhao, D., Liu, J., Sun, L., Ye, B., Hubacek, K., Feng, K., and Varis, O.: Quantifying economic-social-environmental trade-offs and synergies of water-supply constraints: An application to the capital region of China, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-1826, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-1826, 2022.

Transitioning towards renewable heating is important to minimise the use of fossil fuels and abate carbon emissions, because heating accounts for 50% of the final energy consumption and 40% of carbon dioxide emissions globally. In the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands, the aim is to transition towards renewable heating by 2040 and achieve carbon-neutral heating by 2050 through a neighbourhood-based approach. Such an approach entails that per neighbourhood a renewable heat solution is chosen  based on criteria such as carbon emissions, reliability, affordability and feasibility. The impacts of urban heating systems however goes beyond a neighbourhood, and take place on multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this presentation we discuss how a transition towards renewable heating systems can influence the water-energy-land nexus on multiple scales in three ways.

First, heating systems use water locally, but also indirectly through the water footprint embedded in energy carriers. We therefore present an analysis of the direct and indirect water use of heating pathways towards 2050. Second, heating systems which currently have the lowest carbon emissions, may not be the heat option with the lowest carbon emissions in the future. Current decisions for heat options can therefore create non-optimal solutions for minimising carbon emissions in the future. An optimization model to find a mix of heating systems to reduce committed emissions on a neighbourhood scale within a given time period for different scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation is therefore presented. At last, new norms and forms of organising neighbourhood-based heating systems may emerge, potentially creating or exacerbating social inequalities within and beyond the spatial boundaries of a neighbourhood. We therefore present the preliminary results of an analysis on energy justice based on in-depth interviews with urban professionals, dwellers and decision makers in Amsterdam. 

By presenting these three studies we aim to address the challenge of multi-scale impacts of transitioning towards renewable urban energy systems and show how energy-water-land nexus research can contribute to decision making for urban infrastructures.

How to cite: Kaandorp, C., van de Giesen, N., and Abraham, E.: Integrated assessment of renewable urban heating systems considering water use, committed emissions and energy justice, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-3637, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-3637, 2022.

Nature-based solutions (NbS) in brook catchments are considered as climate measures to adapt to hydro-meteorological extremes (storms, floods, droughts) and human-induced water demand. These NbS, often wetlands at multiple scales, cause land-use change (LUC), e.g., from cropland into wetland. Furthermore, LUC is also caused by other anthropogenic reasons (e.g., urbanization, channeling).

To improve this modelling by incorporating multi-scale spatial and temporal aspects, earlier studies modelled LUC and carbon pools, but did this without a regional focus on the impact of NbS. A system analysis of a brook catchment (Dutch Aa/Weerijs; 147 km²; S of Breda)  determines the spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and its connection to carbon pools including the climate mitigation impact of NbS. The question arises if ready-to-use tools can help to connect the associated spatio-temporal datasets, to support professionals in regional development on rapid appraisal of carbon pool dynamics and impacts of NbS.

Firstly, in a pilot study, a system analysis of LUC and temporal carbon pool data has been developed on open access datasets (e.g., open topo and land registry). To get an outlook for 2050, 1960 was taken as a starting point because the brook catchment, including the brook itself, transformed just after 1960. To determine historic spatio-temporal dynamics of LUC and carbon pools, 2010 was chosen. Then, the landscape is predicted for 2050 in two scenarios: A Technical/physical scenario (in which a business-as-usual situation is considered) and a NbS/Wetlands scenario which focusses on NbS and in particular on wetlands. Four terrestrial carbon pools within seven land-use categories have been used. Land-use classification for 1960 and 2010 has been done with topographic maps and ArcGIS. Land-use prediction for 2050 has been done with a Land Change Modeler (TerrSet2020, ClarkLabs) with land-use from 1960 and 2010 as input data.

Secondly, the results of the pilot study have been validated by a field visit and regional professionals with expertise on LUC and carbon pools. As a third step, the updated, validated method has been applied to the whole Dutch catchment.

Findings indicate that 40 km² (≈ 27%) transformed between 1960 and 2010 with an impact on terrestrial carbon of + 0.5 Mton (≈ +50% change: 1 Mton in 1960 and 1.5 Mton in 2010). Findings for 2050 are:

• For the Technical-physical scenario a minor increase of terrestrial carbon. This will probably be explained by settlement expansion and by the increase areal of tree nursery. Tree nursery is especially a land-use category that emerges in the study area.
• For the NbS/Wetlands scenario, which emphasizes wetlands as nature-based solutions, a major increase of terrestrial carbon. This is explained by the increase of the areal of wetlands.

In this study we presented an approach where a combination of tools - a land change modeler and ArcGIS - can be used for a rapid assessment of mitigating effects on climate adaptation measures. This offers water professionals the opportunity to meet the many challenges on NbS in brook/river basins.

How to cite: Timmer, L., Van Wijnen, J., and Lansu, A.: Nature-based solutions in brook catchments: Modelling land-use change and its impact on terrestrial carbon pools (1960 – 2010 – 2050)., EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-4006, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-4006, 2022.

As global water, energy, and food (WEF) demands are continuously increasing because of population growth, climate change, and the modernization of the human lifestyle, sustainable resource management is of prime importance. Societies have been struggling with the planning and management of WEF resources under changing population, climate, and ecosystem. Integrated resource management is essential to achieve optimal and sustainable WEF management as sector-centric (e.g. water-centric) management can lead to poor outcome. To that end, WEF nexus as a multi-centric approach has been introduced to emphasize interlinkages among WEF sectors. Such interlinkages need to be identified, quantified, and analyzed to facilitate sustainable WEF resources management.

This study aims to conduct a quantitative data analysis within the WEF nexus context to identify the interrelationships among WEF sectors and to understand how each sector interacts with other sectors in the Canadian Prairie provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) individually, and as a whole over the period 1990-2020. Historical data used in this study are at annual temporal and provincial spatial resolution. A correlation-and-causality analysis has been conducted for different pairs of WEF sectors to measure the degree of relationships and to explore the cause-and-effects between each pair of sectors. The Multispatial Convergent Cross Mapping method, as a causal inference tool, has been used for identifying and assessing the causal relations. Determining the causal relationships among WEF sectors helps researchers identify critical components, of a large and complex system, for further investigation and modelling. It can also guide policy-makers for better allocation of resources.

Results showed that water has a stronger influence on food and energy than the other way around in the upstream province of Alberta. It was also found that food had more influence on energy than the other way around in the three prairie provinces. This study is a step forward toward a better understanding of the WEF nexus by using causal inference methods for tracking the strength of interactions to identify dominant sectors at both the provincial and regional scales. This can help build more parsimonious and efficient WEF nexus models for further simulation and scenario analysis.

How to cite: Saed, B., Elshorbagy, A., and Razavi, S.: Causality Analysis in the Water-Energy-Food Nexus in the Canadian Prairies, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10955, 2022.

The COP26 in Glasgow produced a Paris Agreement rulebook for international cooperation through carbon markets under Article 6. The intent of Article 6 is to enhance mitigation ambition by utilizing efficiency gains from trading and to cooperatively implement nationally determined contributions (NDCs) while avoiding double-counting. Such international emissions trading forms the bedrock to mobilize public and private sector investment flows to meet ambitious climate goals. At the same time, a growing body of research concludes that there are important links between mitigation and other societal objectives, such as those embodied in the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Such local and national decisions which consider co-benefits and tradeoffs on some of the SDGs, in turn, are critical in deciding the aggregate success and consequences of global policies. This raises the question of how emissions trading may enable or hinder SDG attainment and how different countries might value their participation in such markets.

Countries view their own climate mitigation efforts through a more comprehensive lens than mere emissions reduction, and the links with societal outcomes would influence their consideration of comparability and participation in emissions trading markets. The success of these markets in enhancing ambition would depend on perceptions of the relationships of mitigation with local and regional societal goals around water, energy & land use. The degree of congruence between these relationships could influence future climate negotiations and market design.

In this paper, using a global integrated assessment model (GCAM: Global Change Analysis Model, ver. 5.4), we demonstrate that spatial and temporal distributions of the influence of Article 6 emissions markets on a subset of the broader SDGs may differ. We use a subset of sustainability metrics related to the energy-water-land nexus issues. Our analysis of these metrics tracks the interconnected nature of human and earth systems under different emission market designs for 10 key geographical regions (USA, EU, China, India, Japan, Brazil, Russia, Australia, Sub-Saharan Africa & Latin America) from 2030 to 2050, under a consistent integrated framework. This allows us to assess the local implications of emissions market design on energy access, prices & security, water consumption for different applications, food prices and forest area changes. We include the effects of redistribution and international financial transfers. We demonstrate these effects on the energy-water-land nexus for different national and global mitigation scenarios: the recently updated NDCs, a net zero emissions target in 2050 and a scenario which allows countries to reach net zero goals based on equity principles.    

Our results imply that global cooperation in markets can be altered if interactions between mitigation and local effects on the energy-water-land triad were accounted for. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the extent to which these distributions differ depends on market design and pricing of nature-based mitigation options.

Our analysis provides a foundation for assessing how global emission market schemes under Article 6 could be better understood in the local developmental contexts of energy, water & land use changes.

How to cite: George, M., Yu, S., Clarke, L., and Edmonds, J.: Global emission trade market design and local outcomes on the water-energy-land nexus, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-6964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-6964, 2022.