Predicting the fate of coastal wetlands using a simplified domain ecogeomorphic model.

Predictions of the fate of coastal wetlands under the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) vary widely due to uncertainties on environmental variables, but also due to unavoidable simplifications in the models. Here, we present a simplified domain ecogeomorphic model that includes all relevant hydrodynamic, sedimentation and vegetation dynamics mechanisms that affect wetland evolution, it does not require detailed information and it is efficient enough computationally to allow the simulation of long time periods. We test this framework and apply it in different settings typically found in coastal wetlands around the world, comprising different geomorphic configurations, vegetation types, sediment characteristics and tidal regimes. Most of the wetland settings analysed are unable to cope with the high SLR rates expected by the end of the century, in agreement with results using paleo-records during periods of high SLR rates.