Climate succession: a framework for predicting vegetation dynamics driven by climate change

Climate change, driven by rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, is well under way, and we are already starting to see significant shifts in the function and distribution of vegetation as a result. Dynamic vegetation models, the main platform used to predict the likely magnitude, rate and nature of these shifts, were originally rooted in theories of successional dynamics following disturbance. A key question for these models is how well they can capture vegetation responses to climatic change, which includes both press and pulse disturbances. Here we develop a general framework for representing climate-driven successional dynamics in vegetation models. The framework is illustrated with a series of case studies from Australia of vegetation responses to the major global change drivers of rising CO₂, warming, drought and fire. The Australian environment, intrinsically characterized by high climate variability, has experienced increasingly challenging climate extremes in recent years and thus provides an excellent testbed for predictive models.