Developing geomagnetically induced current forecasting capability across Europe

Space weather poses a hazard to grounded electrical infrastructure such as power transmission networks, through the induction of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). Modelling GIC in real-time, as well as historical events and extreme event scenarios is of great importance for understanding and mitigating the effects on power networks. We have constructed a model of the interconnected European power networks using open-source data, to provide estimates of GIC across the whole continent, with the goal of creating a real-time operational warning system.

In recent years there have also been improvements in forecasting the ground geomagnetic field from L1 solar wind measurements using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, and the development of models which forecast the solar wind itself days ahead of time. As part of the EUHFORIA2.0 Horizon 2020 project we have coupled models for the full Sun-to-Earth system to generate forecasts of geomagnetic fields, geoelectric fields and ultimately GIC across Europe.