ST4.2 | Nowcasting, forecasting, operational monitoring and post-event analysis of the space weather and space climate in the Sun-Earth system
EDI
Nowcasting, forecasting, operational monitoring and post-event analysis of the space weather and space climate in the Sun-Earth system
Convener: Guram Kervalishvili | Co-conveners: Yulia Bogdanova, Therese Moretto Jorgensen, Claudia Borries
Orals
| Wed, 26 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room L1, Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Room L1
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
Hall X4
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 (CEST)
 
vHall ST/PS
Orals |
Wed, 16:15
Thu, 10:45
Thu, 10:45
Space Weather (SW) and Space Climate (SC) are collective terms that describe the Sun-Earth system interactions on timescales varying between minutes and decades and include processes at the Sun, in the heliosphere, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere and at the lower atmosphere. Prediction of the extreme events (forecast and nowcast) and development of the mitigation strategy are vital as the space assets and critical infrastructures, such as communication and navigation systems, power grids, and aviation, are all extremely sensitive to the external environment. Post-event analysis is crucially important for the development and maintenance of numerical models, which can predict extreme SW events to avoid failure of the critical infrastructures.

This session aims to address both the current state of the art of SW products and new ideas and developments that can enhance the understanding of SW and SC and their impact on critical infrastructure. We invite presentations on various SW and SC-related activities in the Sun-Earth system: forecast and nowcast products and services; satellite observations; model development, validation, and verification; data assimilation; development and production of geomagnetic and ionospheric indices. Talks on SW effects on applications (e.g. on airlines, pipelines and power grids, space flights, auroral tourism, etc.) in the Earth’s environment are also welcomed.

Orals: Wed, 26 Apr | Room L1

Chairpersons: Guram Kervalishvili, Yulia Bogdanova
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:40
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EGU23-9081
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solicited
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Matthew Taylor, Rune Floberghagen, Anja Strømme, Michael Rast, Lisa Baddeley, Michel Blanc, Eric Donovan, Eelco Doornbos, Roger Haagmans, Kirsti Kauristie, Larry Kepko, Steve Milan, Hermann Opgenoorth, Noora Partamies, Tim Stockdale, and Claudia Stolle

Earth’s atmosphere provides the background for the “sea of plasmas” surrounding Earth via its Ionosphere and the upper and middle Atmosphere, providing an interface layer through which a broad diversity of solar-terrestrial energy transfer processes takes place. Developing an integrative understanding of global geospace energy transfer processes affecting this layer is a major scientific challenge with important societal implications. The disciplines covering this interaction have a large, diverse and active international community, with significant expertise and heritage in the European Space Agency and Europe. Several ESA directorates have activities directly connected with this topic, and an ESA Heliophysics Working group has been appointed by several ESA Directors, under the direction of the ESA Director General, to work on optimizing synergies and to act as a focus for discussion, inside ESA, of the scientific interests of the Heliophysics community.

Very recently, a Forum at the International Space Science Institute was set up, involving some of the above WG, to look towards developing a deeper understanding of the solar-terrestrial interactions between the Ionosphere and the upper- and middle atmosphere, thus possibly enabling the detection of signatures by natural and anthropogenic hazards.

This presentation will provide a brief introduction to ongoing internal ESA cross discipline approaches, and then note some of the outcomes of this recent ISSI forum to set out a pathway to address this intriguing topic.

How to cite: Taylor, M., Floberghagen, R., Strømme, A., Rast, M., Baddeley, L., Blanc, M., Donovan, E., Doornbos, E., Haagmans, R., Kauristie, K., Kepko, L., Milan, S., Opgenoorth, H., Partamies, N., Stockdale, T., and Stolle, C.: A cross-discipline approach to examine the physical links between Weather in Space and the Lower Atmosphere, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9081, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9081, 2023.

16:40–16:50
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EGU23-3356
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On-site presentation
Stefaan Poedts and the VSWMC-P3 team

The ESA Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre (VSWMC) project was defined as a long term project including different successive parts. Parts 1 and 2 were completed in the first 4-5 years and designed and developed a system that enables models and other components to be installed locally or geographically distributed and to be coupled and run remotely from the central system. A first, limited version went operational in May 2019 under the H-ESC umbrella on the ESA SSA SWE Portal. It is similar to CCMC but interactive (no runs on demand) and the models are geographically distributed and coupled over the internet. The goal of the ESA project "Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre - Part 3" (2019-2022) was to further develop the Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre, building on the Part 2 prototype system and focusing on the interaction with the ESA SSA SWE system. The objectives and scope of this new project include maintaining the current operational system, the efficient integration of 11 new models and many new model couplings, including daily automated end-to-end (Sun to Earth) simulations, the further development and wider use of the coupling toolkit  and front-end GUI, making the operational system more robust and user-friendly.

The 11 new models that have been integrated are Wind-Predict (a global coronal model from CEA, France), the Coupled Thermosphere/Ionosphere Plasmasphere (CTIP) model, Multi-VP (another global coronal model form IRAP/CNRS, France), the BIRA Plasma sphere Model of electron density and temperatures inside and outside the plasmasphere coupled with the ionosphere (BPIM, Belgium), the SNRB  (also named SNB3GEO) model for electron fluxes at geostationary orbit (covering the GOES 15 energy channels >800keV and >2MeV) and the SNGI geomagnetic indices Kp and Dst models (University of Sheffield, UK), the SPARX Solar Energetic Particles transport model (University of Central Lancashire, UK), Spenvis DICTAT tool for s/c internal charging analysis (BISA, Belgium), the Gorgon magnetosphere model (ICL, UK), and the Drag Temperature Model (DTM) and operations-focused whole atmosphere model MCM being developed in the H2020 project SWAMI. Many new couplings have also been implemented which can be used interactively. Moreover, daily runs are implemented of several model chains covering the whole Sun-to-Earth domain. The results of these daily runs are made available to all VSWMC users. We will provide an overview of the state-of-the-art, including the new available model couplings and daily model chain runs, and demonstrate the system.

How to cite: Poedts, S. and the VSWMC-P3 team: Running web-based model chains via ESA’s Virtual Space Weather Modelling Centre, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3356, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3356, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-16351
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Martin Kriegel, Paul David, Youssef Tagargouste, Dmytro Vasylyev, David Wenzel, and Jens Berdermann

In times of highly precise and increasingly autonomous GNSS applications, the influence of space weather on their system performance is increasingly becoming the focus of current research and development. The complex monitoring and research of space weather in its variety of phenomena and with its effects, for example in satellite technology, aerospace, telecommunications and navigation, is an increasingly important mission.

The DLR Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics in Neustrelitz is investigating the influence of space weather on both critical systems and services such as GNSS or RF communications, as well as ground- and space-based infrastructures such as power grids or satellites. Of outstanding importance is the efficient implementation of the interfacing between the increasing scientific expertise and the most diverse user requirements from the national and international public and private sectors, academia and industry.

As an essential core component of this interface, the working group "Pre-operational Services" develops and operates the "Ionosphere Monitoring and Prediction Center (IMPC)" in cooperation with the "German Remote Sensing Data Center" of the DLR. With its special combination of scientific know-how on GNSS based remote sensing and modelling of the ionopshere, instrumentation (e.g. high rate GNSS receiver network, Global Ionospheric Flare Detection System (GIFDS), Callisto) and the use of state-of-the-art data processing technologies, the IMPC contributes significantly to monitoring the impact of space weather on today's technologies in near-real time and to avoiding or reducing it through the application of a wide range of products and services.
This contributionwill present IMPC's pre-operational services and their incorporation into relevant national and international networks (e.g. NOAA-SWPC RTSW, ESA S2P, PECASUS). Furthermore, the unique instrumentation, applied technology approaches and already developed and planned products and services will be presented.

How to cite: Kriegel, M., David, P., Tagargouste, Y., Vasylyev, D., Wenzel, D., and Berdermann, J.: Pre-operational Space Weather Services at the DLR Institute for Solar-Terrestrial Physics, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16351, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16351, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-5613
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lukas Drescher, Sofia Kroisz, Sandro Krauss, Manuela Temmer, Barbara Suesser-Rechberger, and Andreas Strasser

Geomagnetic storms are capable of triggering thermospheric density variations which in turn have an influence on the trajectory of low Earth orbiting satellites (LEO). The strongest of these disturbances of the thermosphere are caused by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). Due to increases in the neutral mass density during such ICME induced geomagnetic storms the altitude of satellites will decrease. Therefore, ICME induced orbit decays are important for long-term orbit prediction as well as short-term as the prominent example of the so called ‘Starlink’ event of February 2022 showed where 40 satellites reentered the atmosphere.

In order to calculate the ICME induced orbit decay we calculated the thermospheric neutral mass density through the deceleration due to drag. This is done either with an observation approach using the high orbiting global navigation satellite system (GNSS) or calibrated data from onboard accelerometers. We then relate the solar wind plasma and magnetic field measurements taken at L1 from the ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory) satellites to the calculated ICME induced orbit decays. 299 ICMEs occurred during the operation of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite which orbits at an altitude of around 490 km. Analysis of the ICME induced orbit decays and the interplanetary magnetic field at L1 show a strong correlation as well as a time delay between the ICME and the associated thermospheric response of around 15 hours on average. This correlation is implemented in the real time forecasting tool SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy). Because the ICME induced orbit decay strongly depends on the altitude we additionally processed data from the CHAMP (CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload) satellite mission to cover the range of 400 km altitude. The GRACE focused forecast algorithm SODA is part of the project SWEETS and ESPRIT, which will be implemented in the ESA Space Safety Program (Ionospheric Weather Expert Service Center) in 2023.

How to cite: Drescher, L., Kroisz, S., Krauss, S., Temmer, M., Suesser-Rechberger, B., and Strasser, A.: Forecasting ICME induced Satellite Orbit Decays, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5613, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5613, 2023.

17:10–17:20
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EGU23-4467
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Bowen Wang, Xiangguang Meng, Yueqiang Sun, Benjamin Männel, and Jens Wickert

High-resolution thermospheric mass density (TMD) measurements from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Satellites are valuable to accurately estimate the short-term atmosphere abrupt disturbances, triggered by magnetospheric forcing. A good characterization of TMD variation ahead of the arrival geomagnetic storms can benefit LEO operations and crucial for both orbit propagation and collision avoidance. In this contribution, we will reveal the most probable feature of TMD variation during the initial stage of solar cycle 25, at the same time, we proved Wygant function as a better geomagnetic events indicator.

In this study, GRACE-FO 10s accelerometer-derived TMD measurements were employed and normalized at altitude of 505km by the NRLMSISE-00 (Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter Radar Exosphere 2000) empirical atmosphere model to investigate the status of solar cycle 25 between September 1 and December 31, 2020. With the high-inclination orbit global coverage, three magnetic latitude regions were separated and divided into day and nighttime using magnetic local times (MLT). 4-month enhancing disturbances observations suggest solar activities will shift from its relatively quiet condition to a much more active behavior, which reveal unexpected dependencies on the temporal and spatial characteries. Our detailed analysis shows that (1) TMD spreads from high latitudes to low latitudes and as same as time lag, (2) TMD enhancement in the Southern hemisphere is more intense than in the Northern one, reaching peak value around 15:00 MLT; geomagnetic activities cause TMD to increase up to 0.86×10-13 kg/m3 at night side, 3.4×10-13 kg/m3 at day side, and (3) the TMD enhancement was symmetric in both N- and S- hemispheres before the equinox. In general, thermospheric mass density analysis reveals the significant impact of solar and geomagnetic activities, providing the most relevant and probable characteristic of the TMD disturbances driven by solar wind.

Additionally, we try to use different geomagnetic indices for a complete description of geomagnetic storms and their phases. The S10.7 index is used as a proxy for solar irradiation. These indicators show high correlation with the TMD variation during recurrent geomagnetic activities. What’s more, the cross-correlation analysis reflects a high correlation of to the Wygant function EWAV found both at three latitude bins.

Even thought our study is considered a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm of the upcoming solar cycle 25 maximum, the high-speed stream injection into the thermosphere still caused thermosphere expansion that significantly enhanced the neutral density in the LEO environment. Therefore, all these findings provide a possibility to improve our understanding of LEO orbital drag.

How to cite: Wang, B., Meng, X., Sun, Y., Männel, B., and Wickert, J.: Thermospheric mass density variations based on GRACE-FO during the ascending phase of solar cycle 25, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4467, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4467, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-7023
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On-site presentation
Emanuele Papini, Mirko Piersanti, Piero Diego, Giuseppe Consolini, Giulia D'Angelo, Dario Recchiuti, and Zeren Zhima

We present the results of a study of the electric field properties in the auroral oval (AO) region. We exploit more than one year of electric field measurements taken by the EFD instrument onboard the China-Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite 01 (CSES-01) spacecraft, orbiting sun-synchronously at around 500 km of altitude inside the Earth ionosphere. To exploit the high temporal resolution of EFD, we devise a new technique that allows to detect the crossing of the AO by CSES-01 using electric field measurements only. This new technique combines a median-weighted local variance measure and Iterative Filtering to automatically isolate high levels of electromagnetic activity caused by, e.g., particle precipitation and Field Aligned Currents (FAC) at auroral latitudes. We validate this new method on few selected orbits against other standard proxies, such as the SWARM single-FAC product and the auroral radiance emission measured by SSUSI onboard the DMSP constellation. Furthermore, we identify ~3 000 orbits (on a dataset of ~10 000) of high geomagnetic activity where CSES either crossed the AO boundary or the polar cap region and characterize the multiscale (down to characteristic electron scales) statistical properties of the electric field. This work represents the first systematic study of the Auroral electric field, with many potential applications to space-weather studies, thanks to the large amount of continuous observations of the ionosphere carried out by CSES-01. 

How to cite: Papini, E., Piersanti, M., Diego, P., Consolini, G., D'Angelo, G., Recchiuti, D., and Zhima, Z.: Multiscale properties of the ionospheric electric field in the auroral region from a one-year survey with CSES-01., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7023, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-11740
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Highlight
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Virtual presentation
Gemma Richardson, Ciarán Beggan, Guanren Wang, Ewelina Florczak, and Ellen Clarke

Space weather poses a hazard to grounded electrical infrastructure such as power transmission networks, through the induction of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC). Modelling GIC in real-time, as well as historical events and extreme event scenarios is of great importance for understanding and mitigating the effects on power networks. We have constructed a model of the interconnected European power networks using open-source data, to provide estimates of GIC across the whole continent, with the goal of creating a real-time operational warning system.

In recent years there have also been improvements in forecasting the ground geomagnetic field from L1 solar wind measurements using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models, and the development of models which forecast the solar wind itself days ahead of time. As part of the EUHFORIA2.0 Horizon 2020 project we have coupled models for the full Sun-to-Earth system to generate forecasts of geomagnetic fields, geoelectric fields and ultimately GIC across Europe.

How to cite: Richardson, G., Beggan, C., Wang, G., Florczak, E., and Clarke, E.: Developing geomagnetically induced current forecasting capability across Europe, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11740, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11740, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-1377
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Vanina Lanabere, Andrew Dimmock, Lisa Rosenqvist, Liisa Juusola, and Ari Viljanen

Extreme space weather events can produce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that flow along long conductor systems such as power grids and pipelines. GICs can interrupt the operation of these systems by damaging transformers and increasing the rate of pipeline corrosion. GICs depend on the enhancement of the geoelectric field, where the magnitude, geographic location, and occurrence depend on the solar wind-magnetospheric-ionospheric coupling processes and the ground conductivity. Thus, countries at high latitudes are potentially more vulnerable to GICs due to higher geomagnetic activity.

Magnetic field measurements (e.g. dB/dt) have been used for a long time as a proxy for GICs with some success. However, studying the behaviour of the geoelectric field is required to fully understand the GIC response during extreme space weather events. In this study, the geoelectric field was computed using data from the IMAGE network and a 1D conductivity model (SMAP) across Sweden. A 19-year statistical analysis of the daily maximum magnitude of the geoelectric field (E) has been performed for solar cycles 23 and 24. We examine the temporal and spatial distribution of the geoelectric field in Sweden to determine the importance of including the ground conductivity when assessing the strongest events and their implications to GICs.

 We found that the daily maximum E is more frequently registered in the dusk sector related to the eastward convection electrojet and a second relative maximum is observed in the dawn sector related to westward convection electrojet. The stronger E values are related to well-known extreme space weather events. However, these events produce different responses at different latitudes due to the changes in ground conductivity and ionospheric response. Therefore, the strongest geoelectric fields at different geographical locations are not all driven by the same events.

How to cite: Lanabere, V., Dimmock, A., Rosenqvist, L., Juusola, L., and Viljanen, A.: Analysis of the geoelectric field in Sweden over solar cycles 23 and 24: spatial and temporal variability during strong GICs events, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1377, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1377, 2023.

17:50–18:00
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EGU23-2728
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Sabrina Guastavino, Francesco Marchetti, Federico Benvenuto, Cristina Campi, Anna Maria Massone, and Michele Piana

In our view, machine/deep learning for flare forecasting is still more a promise for future scenarios than the reference framework for current operational facilities. This delay from the application of AI methods in research settings to their use for real-time forecasting is probably due to the persistence of technical open issues involving, by instance, the optimization strategy of the training phase, the quantitative assessment of the prediction performances, the reduction of the computational burden. This talk proposes a video-based deep learning approach to flare forecasting in which the optimization of the network’s parameters is realized by means of a probabilistic score-oriented loss function, the training procedure accounts for the part of the solar cycle progression when the prediction is requested, and the prediction performances are assessed by means of value-weighted skill scores that give greater importance to the values of the prediction than to its quality. The talk will also show the operational potentialities of this approach and discuss how feature selection may reduce the information redundancy, thus increasing the computational efficiency.

How to cite: Guastavino, S., Marchetti, F., Benvenuto, F., Campi, C., Massone, A. M., and Piana, M.: The path from scientific to operational flare forecasting: a deep learning approach, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2728, 2023.

Orals: Thu, 27 Apr | Room L1

Chairpersons: Guram Kervalishvili, Yulia Bogdanova
16:15–16:20
16:20–16:30
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EGU23-17050
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Olga Malandraki, Michalis Karavolos, Dimitris Kokkinis, Nikolaos Milas, Norma Crosby, Mark Dierckxsens, Marlon Nunez, and Patrick Kuehl

For human spaceflight beyond low-Earth orbit, particularly outside the Earth's magnetosphere, it is essential to provide accurate predictions of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) occurrences. SEPs with energies ranging from tens of keV to a few GeV, are a significant component in the description of the space environment. SEP events feature a wide range of energy spectrum profiles and can last for a few hours to several days or even weeks. As well as posing a threat to modern technology that heavily relies on spacecraft and posing a major radiation hazard to astronauts, they can also constitute a threat to avionics and commercial aircraft in extreme circumstances. The SEP Real-Time Forecasting HESPERIA products have been developed under the HESPERIA H2020 project (Project Coordinator: Dr. Olga Malandraki) and since 2015 provide significant results concerning the prediction of SEP events. More specifically, the HESPERIA UMASEP-500 product makes real-time predictions of the occurrence of >500 MeV proton events and Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events based on the analysis of soft X-ray and high energy differential proton fluxes measured by the GOES satellite network. The HESPERIA REleASE product, based on the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) forecasting scheme, generates real-time predictions of the proton flux (30-50 MeV) at L1, making use of relativistic and near-relativistic electron measurements by the SOHO/EPHIN and ACE/EPAM experiments, respectively. Lastly, the HESPERIA REleASE Alert is a notification system based on the forecasts produced by the HESPERIA REleASE product and informs about the expected radiation impact in real-time using an illustration and a distribution system for registered users. The real-time and highly accurate forecasts as well as the timely performance offered by the HESPERIA products have attracted the attention of various space organizations (e.g. NASA/CCMC, SRAG) and also led to the selection and integration of them into the ESA Space Weather (SWE) Service Network (https://swe.ssa.esa.int/noa-hesperia-federated). The integration process, based on the strict guidelines posed by ESA, has determined the current form of the HESPERIA products using state-of-the-art technologies and paradigms concerning both the graphical user interface and the mechanisms to provide the forecasting results to the end users with a high-quality experience. We will present the HESPERIA products as provided through the ESA SWE Service Network under the Space Radiation Expert Service Centre (R-ESC). Moreover, solar radiation storms successfully predicted during Solar cycle 25 will also be presented and discussed. (Work performed in the frame of ESA Space Safety Programme’s network of space weather service development and pre-operational activities and supported under ESA Contract 4000134036/21/D/MRP).

How to cite: Malandraki, O., Karavolos, M., Kokkinis, D., Milas, N., Crosby, N., Dierckxsens, M., Nunez, M., and Kuehl, P.: Forecasting and analysis of solar particle radiation storms: A state-of-the-art solution provided by the HESPERIA SEP Real-Time Forecasting products, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17050, 2023.

16:30–16:40
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EGU23-11771
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Rungployphan Kieokaew, Rui Pinto, Mikel Indurain, Evangelia Samara, Benoit Lavraud, Antoine Brunet, Stefaan Poedts, Vincent Génot, Alexis Rouillard, Sébastien Bourdarie, and Ioannis Daglis

Our current capability of space weather prediction in the Earth's radiation belts is limited to only an hour in advance using solar wind monitoring at the Lagrangian L1 point. To mitigate the impacts of space weather on telecommunication satellites, advancing the lead time of the prediction is a critical task. We develop a prototype pipeline called "Helio1D" to forecast ambient solar wind conditions (speed, density, temperature, tangential magnetic field) at L1 with a lead time of 4 days. This pipeline predicts Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) in which their compressed stream interfaces and high-speed streams can increase high-energy fluxes in the radiation belts. The Helio1D pipeline connects the Multi-VP model, which provides real-time solar wind emergence at 0.14 AU, and the 1D MHD model. Using the long-term data from Multi-VP, we benchmark the Helio1D pipeline for solar wind speed against the observation data in 2004 - 2013 and 2017 - 2018. We developed a framework based on the Fast Dynamic Time Warping technique that allows us to continuously compare time-series outputs containing CIRs to observations to measure the pipeline's performance. In particular, we use this framework to calibrate and improve the pipeline's performance for operational forecasting. Since the 1D MHD model is computationally inexpensive, we provide daily ensemble forecasting of 21 members, including several targets around the Earth to account for the uncertainties. This pipeline can be used to feed real-time, daily solar wind forecasting to predict the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere and the radiation belts. In this presentation, we will share the lessons from this research-to-operation project and discuss ways to effectively implement operational space weather pipelines.  

How to cite: Kieokaew, R., Pinto, R., Indurain, M., Samara, E., Lavraud, B., Brunet, A., Poedts, S., Génot, V., Rouillard, A., Bourdarie, S., and Daglis, I.: From research to the operation of solar wind forecasting with SafeSpace Helio1D: lessons learned and ways forward, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11771, 2023.

16:40–16:50
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EGU23-16532
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Ioannis A. Daglis and Afroditi Nasi and the SafeSpace Team

The European SafeSpace project has implemented a synergistical approach to improve space weather forecasting capabilities from the current lead times of a few hours to 2-4 days. We have combined the solar wind acceleration model MULTI-VP with the heliospheric propagation models Helio1D and EUHFORIA to compute the evolution of the solar wind from the surface of the Sun to the Earth orbit. The forecasted solar wind conditions are then fed into the ONERA Geoffectiveness Neural Network, to forecast the level of geomagnetic activity with the Kp index as the chosen proxy. The Kp index is used as the input parameter for the IASB plasmasphere model and for the Salammbô radiation belts code. The plasma density is used to estimate VLF wave amplitude and then VLF diffusion coefficients, while the predicted solar wind parameters are used to estimate the ULF diffusion coefficients through the NKUA EMERALD model. Plasmaspheric density and VLF/ULF diffusion coefficients are used by the Salammbô radiation belts code to deliver a detailed flux map of energetic electrons. Finally, particle radiation indicators are also provided as a prototype space weather service of use to spacecraft operators and space industry, accessible at http://www.safespace-service.eu. The performance of the prototype service has been evaluated in collaboration with space industry stakeholders. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437 for the SafeSpace (Radiation Belt Environmental Indicators for the Safety of Space Assets) project.

How to cite: Daglis, I. A. and Nasi, A. and the SafeSpace Team: Predicting Outer Van Allen Belt Dynamics with the Prototype SafeSpace Service, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16532, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16532, 2023.

16:50–17:00
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EGU23-8128
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
Stefano Bianco, Yuri Shprits, Ruggero Vasile, Michael Wutzig, Dedong Wang, Melanie Burns, Bernhard Haas, Tony Arber, Keith Bennett, Ondrej Santolik, Ivana Kolmasova, Ulrich Taubenschuss, Mike Liemohn, Bart van der Holst, Julien Forest, Arnaud Trouche, and Benoit Tezenas du Montcel

An update on our project aiming to provide space weather predictions that will be initiated from observations on the Sun and to predict radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes will allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. The project aims to provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we use the most advanced codes that currently exist and adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and uncertainty quantifications. This project includes a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomagnetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. The PAGER consortium is made up of leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.

How to cite: Bianco, S., Shprits, Y., Vasile, R., Wutzig, M., Wang, D., Burns, M., Haas, B., Arber, T., Bennett, K., Santolik, O., Kolmasova, I., Taubenschuss, U., Liemohn, M., van der Holst, B., Forest, J., Trouche, A., and Tezenas du Montcel, B.: Prediction of Adverse effects of Geomagnetic storms and Energetic Radiation (PAGER), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8128, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8128, 2023.

17:00–17:10
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EGU23-14687
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Marina García Peñaranda, Yuri Shprits, and Angelica M. Castillo Tibocha

The Earth’s ring current is a complex, dynamic system that plays an important role in geomagnetic storms. This ring-shaped current environment changes its structure and intensity on different time scales as a result from the incoming solar wind.  The different particle populations display very different behaviors, making it extremely hard to develop physics-based forecasting models for this environment.

Satellite data provides electron point measurements that can be used to study the different physical processes occurring in the Earth’s magnetospheric ring current. However, in order to fully understand the particle dynamics and injection processes in this region, high temporal and spatial data resolutions are required.

We tackle this issue by using a combination of electron-flux observations from different satellite missions and instruments in order to improve the global resolution of this dynamic environment by intercalibrating POES, GOES, THEMIS and RBSP. To illustrate a use for this combined data set, we present a global reconstruction of the ring current population and a comparison of the observed electron flux environment with a re-analysis of the ring current region.

How to cite: García Peñaranda, M., Shprits, Y., and M. Castillo Tibocha, A.: Satellite Data Intercalibrationof Ring Current Observations, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14687, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14687, 2023.

17:10–17:20
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EGU23-4010
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Highlight
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On-site presentation
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Sandra Chapman

Sunspot records reveal that whilst the sun has an approximately 11 year cycle of activity, no two cycles are of the same duration. Since this activity is a direct driver of space weather at earth, this presents an operational challenge to quantifying space weather risk. We recently showed [1,2] that the Hilbert transform of the sunspot record can be used to map the variable cycle length onto a regular 'clock' where each cycle has the same duration in Hilbert analytic phase.  Extreme geomagnetic storms rarely occur within the quiet part of the cycle which is a fixed interval of analytic phase on the clock; there is a clear active-quiet switch-off and quiet-active switch-on of activity. Some of the most extreme geomagnetic storms have occurred just at the switch-on time, rather than at solar maximum, so that determining when this will occur could provide guidance on planning and preparedness which necessarily must balance resilience against cost. Here [3] we show how the times of the switch-on/off can be determined directly from the sunspot time-series, without requiring a Hilbert transform.  We propose a method- charting- that can be used to combine observations, and both historical and current reports of societal impacts, to improve our understanding of space weather risk.

[1] S. C. Chapman, S. W. McIntosh, R. J. Leamon, N. W. Watkins, Quantifying the solar cycle modulation of extreme space weather, Geophysical Research Letters, (2020) doi:10.1029/2020GL087795

[2] S. C. Chapman, S. W. McIntosh, R. J. Leamon, N. W. Watkins, The Sun's magnetic (Hale) cycle and 27 day recurrences in the aa geomagnetic index. Ap. J. (2021) doi: 10.3847/1538-4357/ac069e

[3] S. C. Chapman, Charting the Solar Cycle, Front. Astron. Space Sci. - Space Physics, in press (2022) doi: 10.3389/fspas.2022.1037096

How to cite: Chapman, S.: Charting the solar cycle variation of the climate of space weather and its impacts, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4010, 2023.

17:20–17:30
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EGU23-5010
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Hannah Theresa Rüdisser, Andreas Windisch, Ute V. Amerstorfer, Tanja Amerstorfer, Christian Möstl, Rachel L. Bailey, and Martin A. Reiss

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are one of the main drivers for space weather disturbances. In the past, different approaches have been used to automatically detect events in existing time series resulting from solar wind in situ observations. However, accurate and fast detection still remains a challenge when facing the large amount of data from different instruments. For the automatic detection of ICMEs we recently published a deep learning pipeline which has been trained, validated and tested on Wind, STEREO-A and STEREO-B data. We shortly present results of this work and talk about our current attempt to extend its application to a real time scenario in order to investigate its eligibility for functioning as an early warning system.

How to cite: Rüdisser, H. T., Windisch, A., Amerstorfer, U. V., Amerstorfer, T., Möstl, C., Bailey, R. L., and Reiss, M. A.: Automatic Detection of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Wind in Situ Data, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5010, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5010, 2023.

17:30–17:40
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EGU23-7754
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lukas Höfig, Manuela Temmer, Florian Koller, Lukas Drescher, and Christian Monstein

The primary condition to produce eruptive solar flare events and solar energetic particles is the opening of magnetic field lines into interplanetary space. In that respect, real-time radio spectra cover important observational information with substantial lead time for space weather warnings. For Space Weather forecasting an objective detection of radio type III and type II bursts is key. We present an algorithm using multiple e-CALLISTO radio stations to detect a) type III bursts, distinguishing between confined and eruptive flares and b) type II bursts, identifying shocks produced by fast coronal mass ejections. We present statistical results for the detection rates and an outlook of the implementation of the algorithm to the e-CALLISTO station at the University of Graz in Austria as well as to the entire international network.

How to cite: Höfig, L., Temmer, M., Koller, F., Drescher, L., and Monstein, C.: ROBUST – a radio burst identification algorithm using the e-CALLISTO station at University of Graz, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7754, 2023.

17:40–17:50
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EGU23-15816
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On-site presentation
Michael Aspinall, Jim Wild, Stephen Croft, Malcolm Joyce, Tilly Alton, Lee Packer, Steve Bradnam, Tony Turner, and Cory Binnersley

The global network of neutron monitors comprises predominantly of the monitor standardised by Carmichael in 1964, the NM-64.  The design of these existing monitors and their instrumentation have changed very little over the last sixty years.  For example, their neutron detectors rely on gas filled proportional counters that are either filled with highly toxic boron trifluoride (BF3) or helium-3 (3He) in an arrangement not optimised for this detector type.  We have designed a new neutron monitor optimised for fully modernised, 1” diameter, gas-filled 3He detectors.  Our new design is optimised for cost savings, compactness and efficient use of 3He.  Benchmarked against a 6-NM-64, our design has a 71% smaller footprint, 83% smaller volume, and is 55% lighter.  It is estimated to be ~50% cheaper, excluding cost reductions associated with the shipping, installation, housing, maintenance and operation of a more compact instrument.  It is suited for unattended operation in relatively remote locations and designed to produce comparable results to a 6-counter NM-64 typically used in the existing global network.  We provide a progress update and latest validation results relating to the implementation of the new design at the UK Metrological Office’s Camborne observatory near Cornwall.  Funded by UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), this research is part of the Space Weather Instrumentation, Measurement, Modelling and Risk (SWIMMR) programme.

How to cite: Aspinall, M., Wild, J., Croft, S., Joyce, M., Alton, T., Packer, L., Bradnam, S., Turner, T., and Binnersley, C.: An update on the UK ground level neutron monitor implementation phase., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15816, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15816, 2023.

17:50–18:00
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EGU23-17272
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On-site presentation
Oleksiy Dudnik, Oleksandr Yakovlev, Mirosław Kowaliński, Piotr Podgórski, and Janusz Sylwester

The state of geomagnetic environment as observed at the ground level is characterized by numerous indices, derived from measurements from numerous magnetic observatories scattered over many longitudes and latitudes. In support, patrol measurements of geomagnetic field components are carried out in near-Earth space using onboard magnetometers that constantly cross geomagnetic field thanks to the orbital motion of the spacecraft. In the same way, high-energy charged particle fluxes trapped by the Earth's magnetic field are monitored along the satellite orbit. In the geomagnetic radiation belts’ environment, the distribution of proton fluxes is mostly less variable, while electron fluxes experience strong variations associated even with weak fluctuations of well-known indices: mid-latitude Kp, and equatorial Dst (related to weak geomagnetic storms). During very strong geomagnetic storms an additional electron radiation belt appears in a slot between outer and inner Van Allen belts. However, even during the period of minimum solar activity when small variations of the geomagnetic field prevail, noticeable changes in electron fluxes are being recorded, including recently discovered presence of additional electron radiation belt at by L=1.6 McIllwain surface.

In present research, we used data collected by the two instruments placed next to each other aboard the low Earth (h ≈ 550 km) near polar (φ ≈ 82.50) orbit CORONAS-Photon satellite. We studied responses of the Satellite Telescope of Electrons and Protons (STEP-F) and the Solar photometer in X-rays (SphinX) in May 2009, a period which was characterized by a very weak solar and geomagnetic activity. As geomagnetic indicators we used Kp, Dst-, and SYM-H indices. For SphinX measurements, we extracted 5-second data in the highest energy bin sensitive to detection of charged particles. For STEP-F we analysed 2-second data records in the upper silicon position-sensitive detector while the satellite crossed all three electron radiation belts present in the magnetosphere. We demonstrate variable, belt-dependent high amplitude responses due to energetic electron presence in all three belts as well as specific time-dependent features due to presence of directed particle streams. Examples will be provided and discussed.

How to cite: Dudnik, O., Yakovlev, O., Kowaliński, M., Podgórski, P., and Sylwester, J.: STEP-F and SphinX particle and X-ray detector as sensitive actuators for radiation environment of near-Earth space, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17272, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | Hall X4

Chairpersons: Guram Kervalishvili, Yulia Bogdanova
X4.283
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EGU23-2048
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Highlight
Mai Mai Lam, Robert Shore, Gareth Chisham, Mervyn Freeman, Adrian Grocott, Maria-Theresia Walach, and Lauren Orr

Forecasting of the effects of thermospheric drag on satellites will be improved significantly with more accurate modelling of space weather effects on the high-latitude ionosphere, in particular the Joule heating arising from electric field variability. This is the largest uncertainty in orbit prediction for satellites and space debris. We use a regression analysis to build a forecast model of the ionospheric convection E×B drift velocity which is driven by relatively few solar and solar wind variables. The model is developed using a solar cycle’s worth (1997 to 2008 inclusive) of 5-minute resolution reanalysis data derived from Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) line-of-sight observations of the convection velocity across the high-latitude northern hemisphere ionosphere. At key stages of development of the forecast model, we use the Priestley skill score to see how well the model reproduces the reanalysis dataset. The final forecast model is driven by four variables: (1) the interplanetary magnetic field component By, (2) the solar wind coupling parameter epsilon ε, (3) a trigonometric function of day of year, (4) the monthly f10.7 index. The forecast model can reproduce the reanalysis plasma velocities, with a characteristic skill score of 0.7. The forecast and reanalysis data compare best around the solar maximum of 2001. The forecast skill is lower around solar minimum, due to occasional limitations in the geographical and temporal coverage of the SuperDARN instrumentation. In addition, this may also indicate the need to modify our model of driving processes around the minimum of the solar cycle.

How to cite: Lam, M. M., Shore, R., Chisham, G., Freeman, M., Grocott, A., Walach, M.-T., and Orr, L.: Forecasting High-Latitude Ionospheric Convection Using the BAS Reanalysis of SuperDARN Data, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2048, 2023.

X4.284
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EGU23-3447
Sean Bruinsma and Sophie Laurens

A major application of semi-empirical thermosphere specification models is in the computation of the atmospheric drag force in the orbit determination and prediction of spacecraft as well as debris. The models provide low spatial and temporal resolution average (climatological) predictions of temperature, total and partial densities of the main constituents as a function of location (altitude, latitude, longitude, local solar time), solar and geomagnetic activity, and season.

 

The research DTM2020 thermosphere model uses a new driver for geomagnetic activity, the hourly Hp60 index (https://doi.org/10.5880/Hpo.0001) instead of the three-hourly Kp. However, thermosphere cooling due to enhanced C02 and NO production in particular during storms is not explicitly taken into account in the semi-empirical models. In this study, we will use density observations of CHAMP, GOCE, GRACE, and Swarm, the Kp and Hpo indices, and the TIMED/SABER measured CO2 and NO cooling power per profile and per day, for selected geomagnetic storms. We will investigate the benefits of Hpo vs Kp, and if it is possible to reproduce storm density more precisely in semi-empirical thermosphere models by adding observed cooling power as model driver.

How to cite: Bruinsma, S. and Laurens, S.: Reproducing storm-time densities with Kp, Hpo and TIMED/SABER CO2 cooling power, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3447, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3447, 2023.

X4.285
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EGU23-6389
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ECS
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Veera Juntunen and Timo Asikainen

Geomagnetic activity is driven by the variable solar wind and is often used as an indirect measure for energetic particle precipitation (EPP) from space into Earth’s atmosphere. A growing number of studies has shown that geomagnetic activity via EPP can intensify the wintertime polar vortex in the stratosphere by forming ozone-depleting nitrogen and hydrogen oxides through different chemical reactions, which then influence the atmosphere’s radiative balance and dynamics. The polar vortex variations also influence the ground weather and project onto the variability of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM), which describes the prevailing pressure pattern in the Northern hemisphere and is the most important factor influencing the winter weather, e.g., in Northern Europe. A stronger (weaker) vortex is associated to positive (negative) NAM phase and tends to cause warmer and wetter (colder and drier) winter weather in Scandinavia and Northern Eurasia. Recent studies have also shown that the EPP influence on the polar vortex and NAM is strongly dependent on the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) of stratospheric equatorial zonal winds.  When QBO-winds at 30 hPa pressure level are easterly the EPP influence on the polar vortex and NAM is stronger.

It is known that prevailing weather conditions have a huge effect on wintertime electricity consumption, e.g., in these Northern European regions, notably in Finland and Scandinavian countries. During cold weather more electricity is consumed for heating purposes while the opposite is true during milder winter weather.

The EPP-related influence on winter time climate variability implies a new and so far unexplored connection by which space weather and space climate affects the modern technological society. In this study we consider this question for the first time and quantify the influence of geomagnetic activity on the inter-annual variations of wintertime electricity consumption in Finland from 1980s until present also taking into account of the phase of the QBO. We first demonstrate that the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland depends strongly on Finland’s average temperature. We then show that geomagnetic activity has a strong influence on Finland’s wintertime average temperature via the polar vortex and NAM variability. We then show that during easterly QBO phase the geomagnetic activity has a clear and statistically significant influence on the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland and can explain a large fraction of its inter-annual variability. During westerly QBO phase such influence is not observed.

How to cite: Juntunen, V. and Asikainen, T.: Influence of geomagnetic activity on the wintertime electricity consumption in Finland via Northern Annular Mode, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6389, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6389, 2023.

X4.286
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EGU23-8699
Global Geomagnetic Perturbation Forecasting Using Deep Learning
(withdrawn)
Banafsheh Ferdousi, Vishal Upendran, Panagiotis Tigas, Téo Bloch, Mark Cheung, Siddha Ganju, Asti Bhatt, Ryan McGranaghan, and Yarin Gal
X4.287
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EGU23-8880
Guram Kervalishvili, Jan Rauberg, Jürgen Matzka, and Monika Korte

The Space Weather (SWE) Service Network of the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) Space Safety Programme provides timely and reliable space weather information to end users allowing the mitigation and prevention of the impact of hazards from space on the communication and navigation systems, power grids, and aviation, etc. The SWE Service Network consists of 5 Expert Service Centres (ESCs), Solar Weather, Space Radiation, Ionospheric Weather, Geomagnetic Conditions, and Heliospheric Weather, which are distributed and established across Europe providing coverage of space weather phenomena and impacts on ground and space-based infrastructure. Note that a free registration at the ESA's SWE portal is necessary to get access to the protected applications or products.

Here, we give an overview of 18 products that currently are provided by GFZ in the Ionospheric Weather ESC (I-ESC) and Geomagnetic Conditions ESC (G-ESC). These products are derived from the Low Earth Orbiting (LEO) satellite and ground-based observations. In I-ESC, the following Swarm mission products are provided: Rate Of the change of TEC (ROT), Total Electron Content (TEC), in-situ electron density (Ne), Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI), Rate Of the change of TEC Index (ROTI). And in G-ESC: the location and intensity level of the Polar Electrojet (PEJ), Field-Aligned Currents (FACs), and Vector Magnetic Field (MAG) components. The following global geomagnetic indices are provided in G-ESC, nowcast Kp (three-hourly), Hp60 (one-hourly and open-ended), Hp30 (half-hourly and open-ended) indices, most recent definitive Kp index, Kp, Ap, Hp60, ap60, Hp30, ap30 indices on tabular form, Kp and Ap (since 1932), Hp60, ap60, Hp30 and ap30 (since 1995) indices archive.

How to cite: Kervalishvili, G., Rauberg, J., Matzka, J., and Korte, M.: Ground and space data products provided by GFZ to the ESA Space Weather Service Network, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8880, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8880, 2023.

X4.288
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EGU23-9382
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ECS
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Aisling Bergin, Sandra Chapman, Nicholas Watkins, Nicholas Moloney, and Jesper Gjerloev

Extreme space weather events are rare, and quantifying their likelihood is challenging, often relying on geomagnetic indices obtained from ground-based magnetometer observations that span multiple solar cycles. The Dst index ring-current monitor, derived from an hourly average over four low-latitude stations, is a benchmark for extreme space weather events, and has been extensively studied statistically. We apply extreme value theory (EVT) to two geomagnetic ring current indices: SMR, (derived from up to 120 stations) and SYM-H (derived from 6 stations). EVT analysis reveals a divergence between the return level found for Dst, and those for SMR and SYM-H, that increases non-linearly with return period. For return periods below 10 years, hourly averaged SMR and SYM-H have return levels similar to Dst, but at return periods of 50 and 100 years, they respectively exceed that of Dst by about 10% and 15% (SYM-H) and about 7% and 12% (SMR). One minute resolution SMR and SYM-H return levels progressively exceed that of Dst; their 5, 10, 50 and 100 year return levels exceed that of Dst by about 10%, 12%, 20% and 25% respectively. Our results suggest that for more extreme events, these geomagnetic indices are not directly interchangeable, instead they contain different, complimentary information and should be used together in any detailed analysis. Such an analysis may improve the correlation between return levels and the impact of severe geomagnetic storms 

How to cite: Bergin, A., Chapman, S., Watkins, N., Moloney, N., and Gjerloev, J.: Comparing extreme event statistics in Dst, SYM-H and SMR geomagnetic indices., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9382, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9382, 2023.

X4.289
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EGU23-10055
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ECS
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Artem Smirnov, Yuri Shprits, Hermann Lühr, Fabricio Prol, and Chao Xiong

The ionosphere is an ionized part of the upper atmosphere, where the number of electrons in is large enough to affect the propagation of electromagnetic signals, including those of the GNSS systems. Therefore, knowing electron density values in the ionosphere is crucial for both industrial and scientific applications. Here, we employ the radio occultation profiles collected by the CHAMP, GRACE, and COSMIC missions, to model the electron density in the topside ionosphere. We assume a linear decay of scale height with altitude and create a model of 4 parameters, namely the F2-peak density and height (NmF2 and hmF2) and the slope and gradient of scale height in the topside (H0 and dHs/dh). The resulting model (NET) is based on feedforward neural networks and takes as input the geographic and geomagnetic position, the solar flux and geomagnetic indices. The resulting density reconstructions are validated on more than a hundred million in-situ measurements from CHAMP, CNOFS and Swarm satellites, as well as on the GRACE/KBR data, and the developed model is compared to several topside options of the Internation Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model. The NET model yields highly accurate reconstructions of electron density in the topside ionosphere and gives unbiased predictions for all seasonal and solar activity conditions.

How to cite: Smirnov, A., Shprits, Y., Lühr, H., Prol, F., and Xiong, C.: Neural network model of Electron density in the Topside ionosphere (NET), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-10055, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-10055, 2023.

X4.290
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EGU23-11294
Ting Wang, Matthew Parry, Craig Rodger, Jessica Allen, and Tanja Petersen

Extreme geomagnetic storm events could cause hazardous damage to the technological infrastructure that increasingly underpins modern society. Being able to forecast the next extreme geomagnetic storm is thus crucial to navigating risks in the 21st century. There have been quite a number of studies on using extreme value theory to forecast future extreme geomagnetic storms. However, to the best of our knowledge, each study selects one model and one estimation method. In this study, we demonstrate that different estimation methods for the same extreme value model and different extreme value models can produce very different estimates of return levels when applied to the same dataset. We propose to use the average of the estimated return levels from different models and different estimation methods to produce more robust and reliable forecasts.

We apply this method to the geomagnetic field data measured in every minute in the period between 1994 and 2019 at Eyrewell, Canterbury, New Zealand. We focus on the horizontal components, and estimate the return levels of the ramp change in the horizontal component. The resulting return levels for the ramp change in the horizontal component using different types of models and different estimation methods show the importance of using model-averaged forecasts.

In this presentation, we also demonstrate forecasts of future geomagnetic storms using counting processes applied to the wavelet spectrum. 

How to cite: Wang, T., Parry, M., Rodger, C., Allen, J., and Petersen, T.: Forecasting extreme geomagnetic storms using different statistical models, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11294, 2023.

X4.291
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EGU23-793
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ECS
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Arnau Busom Vidal, Masatoshi Yamauchi, and Urban Brändström

In spaceweather warning, last-minute (< 10 min) warning of the local ionospheric and geomagnetic activities using local measurements is as important as midterm (about 1 hour using Sun-Earth L1 monitor) and long term (> day using solar data) warning. We the first step, we developed warning system for different levels auroral activities using all-sly camera data only: one is sudden and significant intensification of auroral arc with expanding motion (we call it "Local-Arc-Breaking"), and the other is activated local aurora which is often (submitted to Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-331/).

We now combined geomagnetic data to this warning. We used 1-sec geomagnetic (B) data to drive dB/dt, and took its average every minute to further separate the activity level of the aurora, from previous three levels (using only aurora) to seven levels. Here, the highest level (dB/dt > 5 nT/s) means potential risk of hazard by high geomagnetic induced current (GIC).

We then obtained probability of having higher level of the activity within the following 15 minutes. Particular interest is the probability of Local-Arc-Breaking from precursors (four different levels) and large dB/dt (> 5 nT/s) event. Since the rise time of big activities (both aurora and dB/dt) is very short, nearly half the case of such occurrence is within one minutes, and 10 minute is sufficient. For the data we used winter 2021/2022 season data (from November 2021 to April 2022). The data is limited because we have different camera before. 

Out of four possible precursors, three precursors give 50-70% probability of the Local-Arc-Breaking within 10 minutes. Once the auroral activity level reaches the Local-Arc-Breaking, and if dB/dt exceed 2 nT/s, we expect large dB/dt > 5 nT/s with 20% (with large uncertainty for the last one). This opens up a possibility of using auroral data in improving the prediction of the GIG events.

How to cite: Busom Vidal, A., Yamauchi, M., and Brändström, U.: Toward last-minute warning of local aurora activity and large dB/dt in Kiruna, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-793, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-793, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 10:45–12:30 | vHall ST/PS

Chairpersons: Guram Kervalishvili, Yulia Bogdanova
vSP.25
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EGU23-4113
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ECS
Yuhao Zheng, Chao Xiong, Haicheng Jiang, Fan Yin, Claudia Stolle, and Guram Kervalishvili

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its follow-on mission GRACE-FO are gravity satellites jointly developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and German Aerospace Center (DLR), which are composed of two satellites. Such tandem satellite missions provide us with a good opportunity to evaluate the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) derived from their onboard global positioning system (GPS) receivers. In addition, the K-band ranging system (KBR) between two satellites provides also the in-situ electron density (Ne) at the satellite orbits, which can help further to evaluate the reliability of TEC. By combing the observations from GRACE and GRACE-FO, 20 years of data (from 2002 to 2022) have been accumulated to analyze the solar cycle dependence of TEC and Ne at the topside ionosphere. Our results show that the TEC from the tandem satellites is generally the same, but slight differences can still be found, showing solar cycle and local time dependences. In addition, we found that the TEC differences between the tandem satellites of GRACE are somehow smaller than that of GRACE-FO, and the consistency between the TEC and inter-satellite electron density results of GRACE is also better.

How to cite: Zheng, Y., Xiong, C., Jiang, H., Yin, F., Stolle, C., and Kervalishvili, G.: Evaluation of total electron content derived from the spaceborne receivers of GRACE/GRACE-FO missions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4113, 2023.

vSP.26
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EGU23-11533
Nozomu Nishitani and Tomoaki Hori

The Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) are one of the most outstanding phenomena in the subauroral ionosphere. Its position can be a measure for nowcasting the intensity/size of the global ionospheric convection. In the current study, the latitudinal distribution of SAPS is discussed based on the over ten years of observation achieved by the SuperDARN Hokkaido Pair of radars, which are located at the lowest geomagnetic latitudes among the SuperDARN radars. Previous statistical studies showed that the latitudinal position of the SAPS structure could be predicted on average as a function of magnetic local time and the Dst geomagnetic index. The multi-event study shows, however, that the latitude of the SAPS structure does not always follow the empirical relationship, which could determine the latitude of the SAPS structure as a function of the Dst index and magnetic local time. For example, a detailed analysis of the 8 Sep 2017 event indicates that the SAPS position is located at a significantly lower geomagnetic latitude than the statistically expected position, even if the magnetic local time and Dst geomagnetic activity effects are considered. Possible reasons for such an unusual position, including the history of the IMF and the solar wind parameters and occurrence of substorms, are investigated.

How to cite: Nishitani, N. and Hori, T.: Attempt to nowcast the latitudinal position of the SAPS structure using the SuperDARN Hokkaido Pair of radars, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-11533, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-11533, 2023.