Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

In a time of ever-intensifying climate change, it is crucial to understand the timescales needed to overcome adaptation constraints, namely what makes adaptation challenging. Currently, evidence on constraints focusses on the local level and present-day dynamics. Here, we combine qualitative and case study data with national macro indicators and use the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to look at the pace of various scenarios of future socio-economic development. We find that regardless of the scenario, long timescales will be required to overcome constraints, challenging adaptation for decades to come, in particular in countries on the frontline of climate change. The persistence of adaptation constraints calls for stringent mitigation, improved adaptation along with dedicated finance and increasing efforts to address loss and damage. Our novel approach allows to ground truth existing indicators that can be further used in climate modelling efforts (including economic models), improving the representation of adaptation and its risk reduction potential.