The challenges of risk dynamics and how to assess them

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by our global society because of the increasing complexity of disasters caused by natural hazards. For example, a community hit by a natural hazard while still recovering from the impacts of an earlier hazard faces many different challenges than when it is hit by a single hazard that occurs in isolation. With growing awareness of this complexity and its impact on disaster risk, there has been a push, from scientists as well as international organizations such as the UNDRR, for disaster risk research to account for these complexities. This research has aimed to take an increasingly integrated approach, often bridging across individual hazard types to accomplish a more comprehensive understanding of overall risk.

 

Incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics of all risk components (i.e., hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) is key to accurately modelling compound and multi-hazard risk events. There is great potential to better capturedynamics between and within risk components by learning from common approaches and methods used in different research communities. For example, recent years have seen a growing attention for research into compound hazards and hazard drivers using methods such as storylines, agent-based models, and system dynamics, all novelties for this field of research. An important, less studied aspect is that of the dynamics of vulnerability. Many of these once-novel methods now applied in compound hazard research have the potential to improve modelling capabilities of other compound risk aspects, such as vulnerability dynamics. This talk will highlight recent developments in assessing the complexities of disaster risk and discuss potential opportunities to further advance our modelling capabilities through multidisciplinary exchanges.