ITS3.4/SSS0.1 | Climate Extremes & Risk: impacts, nature-based disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation

ITS3.4/SSS0.1

EDI
Climate Extremes & Risk: impacts, nature-based disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation
Convener: Carla FerreiraECSECS | Co-conveners: Jana Sillmann, Zahra Kalantari, Markus Reichstein, Haozhi Pan, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux
Orals
| Thu, 27 Apr, 08:30–12:30 (CEST)
 
Room 0.94/95
Posters on site
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
Hall X3
Posters virtual
| Attendance Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 (CEST)
 
vHall SSS
Orals |
Thu, 08:30
Thu, 16:15
Thu, 16:15
Extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters and emergent risks are becoming increasingly critical in the context of global environmental change and interact with other stressors. They are a potential major threat to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and one of the most pressing challenges for future human well-being. Nature-based solutions (NBS), defined as “'inspired and supported by nature, which are cost-effective, simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help build resilience'”, are a fundamental part of the efforts to “repair the way we interact with nature”, established as a goal within the European Green Deal. NBS can provide multiple benefits, such as mitigating climate hazard risks (e.g. floods, droughts) and enhancing climate resilience. Although NBS have received increasing interest over the last years, there are still doubts regarding their efficacy in comparison with more well tested civil engineering solutions, depending on the type and magnitude of hazards and the robustness of the NBS. This session aims to explore the linkages between extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters, societal dynamics and resilience, as well as the technical, financial and operational feasibility and performance of NBS solutions. Specific topics include, but are not limited to:
• Impacts of extreme climate events (including risks emerging from compound events) and cascades of impacts on various aspects of ecosystems and societies;
• Key obstacles towards societal resilience and achievement of SDGs while facing climate extremes;
• Evidence-base of NBS solutions to support disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation;
• New methods and tools to investigate the role of NBS to enhance resilience and adaptation to climate change;
• Case studies of inspirational practice for successful implementation and upscaling of NBS projects;
• Financial instruments and business opportunities to stimulate NBS implementation;
• Future NBS performance under various climate change scenarios;
• Co-governance of climate mitigation and adaptation with NBS.

Orals: Thu, 27 Apr | Room 0.94/95

Chairpersons: Markus Reichstein, Simron Singh
08:30–08:35
08:35–08:45
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EGU23-5017
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Jakob Zscheischler and Seth Westra

Widespread changes to climate-sensitive systems are placing increased demands on risk assessments as a key for managing climate risk, enabling adaptive responses and enhancing system resilience. Although the complex, uncertain and ambiguous nature of climate-sensitive systems has been long recognised, recent attention on concepts such as compounding and cascading risks, deep uncertainty and ‘bottom-up’ risk assessment frameworks have stressed the need to more explicitly confront the overarching theme of systemic complexity. Drawing on insights from the field of systems thinking, we provide a theoretical foundation for addressing systemic complexity when assessing climate risks. We first describe the sources of systemic complexity as they pertain to climate risk, and highlight the role of climate risk assessment as a formal sense-making device that enables learning and the organisation of knowledge of the interplay between the climate-sensitive system and its (climatological) environment. We then highlight boundary judgements as one of the core concerns of risk assessment, acting as a filter of both information and value judgements, and thereby creating islands of analytical and cognitive tractability in a complex, uncertain and ambiguous world. Yet boundary judgements necessarily result in partiality, leading to the need for boundary critique, which emphasises the need of multi-methodologies and second-order learning processes as part of standard risk assessment practice. We build these concepts into a framework that divides climate risk assessments into five distinct but interrelated concerns or ‘problematics’ that collectively can be used as a starting point for managing systemic complexity in the assessment of climate risk. 

How to cite: Zscheischler, J. and Westra, S.: Accounting for systemic complexity in the assessment of climate risk, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5017, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5017, 2023.

08:45–08:55
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EGU23-16961
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Jakob H. Lochner, Annika Stechemesser, and Leonie Wenz

Climate change media coverage shapes climate-related societal and political debates and decisions [1, 2]. Yet it is unclear what drives media attention for climate change. More frequent and more intense weather extremes are a clear consequence of climate change and have a large impact on society. Extreme weather events might hence be an important factor for climate coverage. Here, we investigate whether weather extremes lead to more climate change coverage in the media. Further, we analyse how this changes over time and whether it differs between different types of extreme weather events such as heat waves or floods. Finally, we examine how the influence on climate coverage varies between weather extremes and other climate-related events such as climate protests, IPCC report publications and world climate summits.

To this end, we analyse approximately nine million articles from nine German newspapers over the last three decades (1991 - 2021). The selection of newspapers is diverse and includes regional and national media, daily and weekly publication rhythms, as well as various political leanings. Currently, the nine newspapers have a cumulative readership of more than 12 million people. Within all nine million articles, we identify approximately 57 000 climate-related articles, using a bag-of-word machine learning approach. Changes in the share of climate-related articles are evaluated against the background of the occurrence of weather extremes and other climate-related events, while controlling for potential confounders using fixed effects panel regressions. Information about extreme weather events are derived from the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis data as well as from the international disasters' database EM-DAT. In addition, we use data on activists’ protest, scientific publications and political climate-related conferences, derived from press releases of the corresponding organizations. 

Our study provides evidence that weather extremes increase climate change coverage. Separate analyses for the three decades (1991 - 2000, 2001 - 2010, 2011 - 2021) show that the influence of weather extremes on climate coverage increases over time. Differences in the influence on climate coverage are found for different weather extreme types. The influence of floods in Germany on climate coverage is about twice as large as that of heat waves. Comparing the effect of weather extremes with that of other climate-related events shows that the influence of social events on climate coverage is much stronger than the influence of weather extremes. We find evidence that protests exceed the influence of heat waves by a factor of four, and world climate summits even exceed the influence of heat waves by a factor of ten. These trends apply to all newspapers studied and are preserved under different controls and alternative climate coverage measures.

[1] Brulle, R. J., Carmichael, J. & Jenkins, J. C. Shifting public opinion on climate change: An empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the U.S., 2002-2010. Climatic Change 114, 169–188 (2012).

[2] Sampei, Y. & Aoyagi-Usui, M. Mass-media coverage, its influence on public awareness of climate-change issues, and implications for Japan’s national campaign to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Global Environmental Change 19, 203–212 (2009).

How to cite: Lochner, J. H., Stechemesser, A., and Wenz, L.: Effect of weather extremes on climate change media coverage - Evidence from 57 000 newspaper articles, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-16961, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-16961, 2023.

08:55–09:05
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EGU23-13890
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Shengli Liu and Liujun Xiao

Extreme weather and climate events (EWCEs) have jeopardized crop yields globally. The evidenced increasing trends of EWCEs would amplify their impacts if they co-occurred. This would bring additional shocks to global food markets, and result in severe risks to food security. A systemical analysis of the risk of crop yield failure under EWCEs and their changes in a warming future is essential to guide adaptations adequately and ensure food security. In this study, we compared the relations between maize yield anomalies and 14 climatic indices over the growing season in the breadbasket (10 provinces) in China during 1981-2018 to identify the main EWCEs determining maize yield anomalies. We then compared the probabilities of crop yield failure under current climatic conditions and its projected changes under 1.5 and 2.0 oC global warming using 28 climate models from CMIP6. The result shows that the maize yield anomalies can be mainly explained by extreme temperate-related indices, despite the various indices for individual provinces. The probability of synchronous yield failure in 1981-2018 was below 7.5% when we randomly summed up seven maize provinces among ten. The probability may reach 2.45% and 7.73% on average under 1.5 and 2.0 oC global warming conditions for all ten provinces, respectively. The transferred risk of crop yield failure revealed that more current maize land would be outstripping its climate-safe space under warmer conditions. Our results highlighted the benefits of limiting global temperature rise within 1.5 oC. Furthermore, enhancing crop resistance to adverse climate situations through appropriate adaptations would be a promising solution to stabilize crop productivity.

How to cite: Liu, S. and Xiao, L.: Limit global warming to 1.5 oC will alleviate the synchronous failure of maize yield in China, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-13890, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-13890, 2023.

09:05–09:15
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EGU23-3378
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Leonard Borchert, Anton Orlov, Jonas Jägermeyer, Christoph Müller, and Jana Sillmann

Studies on projected agricultural yields focus on end-of-century scenarios. Simulations from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Project phase 3b show conflicting results for global and regional changes of different crops by the end of the century. Here, we interrogate the same simulations, focusing on year-to-year variations of agricultural yields in the important staple crops maize, rice, soybean and wheat.

An ensemble of GGCMI models shows a larger agreement on the variations of crop yields than for the long-term trend. Year-to-year variations of projected crop yields become more pronounced over time, especially so for negative crop yield anomalies. As a result, the frequency of negative global crop yield extremes increases with global warming. We show that these negative yield extremes may occur for individual or multiple crops at the same time, and may originate from individual or multiple regions. North America dominates global maize and soybean yield extremes (57% and 44% of all significant global extremes, respectively), and South East Asia and South Asia are important for rice extremes (24% and 22%, respectively), while regional results are inconclusive for wheat. Multi-crop extremes occur most commonly for the combination of maize and soybean, and are dominated by the North America region. Based on these findings, we show that depending on the region and crop, persistent spring or summer drought, cold or heat can be associated with years of global and regional negative agricultural yield extremes.

Our results show how specific climatic boundary conditions can lead to year-to-year extremes in important staple crops, highlighting the potential to anticipate such events in the future.

How to cite: Borchert, L., Orlov, A., Jägermeyer, J., Müller, C., and Sillmann, J.: Negative year-to-year agricultural yield extremes projected to occur more frequently under global warming, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3378, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3378, 2023.

09:15–09:25
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EGU23-4835
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Yiwei Jian, Jin Fu, Xuhui Wang, and Feng Zhou

Extreme climate events constitute a major risk to global food production. Among these, the extreme rainfall is often dismissed from historical analyses and future projections, whose impacts and mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we find that rice yield reductions due to extreme rainfall in China were comparable to those induced by extreme heat over the last two decades, reaching 7.6 ± 0.9% (one standard error) according to nationwide observations and 8.1 ± 1.1% according to the crop model incorporating the mechanisms revealed from manipulative experiments. Extreme rainfall reduces rice yield mainly by limiting nitrogen availability for tillering that lowers per-area effective panicles and by exerting physical disturbance on pollination that declines per-panicle filled grains. Considering these mechanisms, we projected ~8% additional yield reduction due to extreme rainfall under warmer climate by the end of the century. These findings demonstrate the critical importance to account for extreme rainfall in food security assessments, posing greater challenges to climate change adaptation.

How to cite: Jian, Y., Fu, J., Wang, X., and Zhou, F.: Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4835, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4835, 2023.

09:25–09:35
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EGU23-15116
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Swati Tamantini, Giancarlo Sidoti, Federica Antonelli, Giulia Galotta, Maria Cristina Moscatelli, Davor Kržišnik, Vittorio Vinciguerra, Rosita Marabottini, Natalia Macro, and Manuela Romagnoli

Wooden pile dwellings (WPD) are an inexhaustible and precious source of information on landscape evolution and contingent cultural activities. There have been significant investigations on WPD submerged in Alpine areas, but important knowledge gaps are evident regarding Mediterranean volcanic and karstic lakes. The conservation of the latter archaeological remnants is endangered by the climatic change impacts and anthropogenic pressure, further exacerbated by the sensitive and circumscribed lake environments. Wood from pile dwellings is waterlogged, and its conservation mostly depends on the surrounding environment i.e. sediments and water quality. This project aims to study all the aspects of WPD in volcanic and karstic lakes through studies ranging from their potential exploitation, the investigation into their conservation and restoration, monitoring lake environment and forecasting scenarios through an aquarium reproducing the most significant abiotic conditions occurring in the lake. This last study will be achieved by means of an aquarium model. Three case studies have been selected in which agricultural practices influence climatic stress and pollution impact: Lake Banyoles in Spain and Lakes Bolsena and Mezzano in Italy. The foreseen investigations will employ an extraordinarily wide spectrum of skills and disciplines (palynology, dendrochronology, micromorphology, soil science and innovative tools like isotopic analysis). The characterization of wooden materials will involve gravimetric measurements, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), pyrolysis-gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (Py-GC/MS) and thermogravimetry. Samples will derive from different sources to include immersed, reburied finds and restored wood, lake water and lake sediment samples. The main activities will be devoted to fields campaigns and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), high-resolution methods for monitoring environmental conditions (for example the installed probe will measure water lake temperature, pH and so on), capitalization of results (network of big data about lake sites), involvement of local actors and population on the historical, cultural and environmental value of WPDs to establish decision-making processes and to foster high-quality tourism.

How to cite: Tamantini, S., Sidoti, G., Antonelli, F., Galotta, G., Moscatelli, M. C., Kržišnik, D., Vinciguerra, V., Marabottini, R., Macro, N., and Romagnoli, M.: The WOODPDLAKE project. Lakes, wood and sediment: Natural and Cultural Heritage affected by climate changes, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-15116, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15116, 2023.

09:35–09:45
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EGU23-12929
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lara Mani, Mike Cassidy, Asaf Tzachor, and Paul Cole

The climatic cooling effects associated with large magnitude volcanic eruptions – the so-called ‘volcanic winter’ scenario – have long been identified as an extreme risk that may impact the continued flourishing of humanity. Such eruptions are relatively rare, but perhaps not as rare as we might think. A greater understanding of this mechanism and increased resolution of our geological records through the study of ice core records demonstrate that the recurrence of an eruption capable of this impact may be as frequent as 1 in 6 per century. These large magnitude volcanic eruptions (VEI 7 and above), could cause a global cooling event for up to a decade, if not longer, with more severe effects felt in the northern hemisphere, presenting a unique challenge for global food security.

Further, viewed through the lens of vulnerability, human society now closely intersects with regions of volcanic activity, potentially forging new pathways for volcanic eruptions to cause global disruption. Our research identified regions of intersection, or ‘pinch points’, where a compounding of global critical systems and infrastructure, such as submarine cables, global shipping lanes, and transportation networks, are proximal to regions of volcanic activity. These pinch points present locations in our interconnected world where volcanic eruptions may disrupt our systems, cascading us toward global catastrophe. With climate change increasing the frequency and intensity of volcanic eruptions globally and enhancing their impacts, more must be done to accelerate our preparedness for such events.

How to cite: Mani, L., Cassidy, M., Tzachor, A., and Cole, P.: Global societal vulnerability to volcanic eruptions, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12929, 2023.

09:45–09:55
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EGU23-1243
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Marleen de Ruiter

Recent disasters have demonstrated the challenges faced by our global society because of the increasing complexity of disasters caused by natural hazards. For example, a community hit by a natural hazard while still recovering from the impacts of an earlier hazard faces many different challenges than when it is hit by a single hazard that occurs in isolation. With growing awareness of this complexity and its impact on disaster risk, there has been a push, from scientists as well as international organizations such as the UNDRR, for disaster risk research to account for these complexities. This research has aimed to take an increasingly integrated approach, often bridging across individual hazard types to accomplish a more comprehensive understanding of overall risk.

 

Incorporating spatiotemporal dynamics of all risk components (i.e., hazards, exposure, and vulnerability) is key to accurately modelling compound and multi-hazard risk events. There is great potential to better capturedynamics between and within risk components by learning from common approaches and methods used in different research communities. For example, recent years have seen a growing attention for research into compound hazards and hazard drivers using methods such as storylines, agent-based models, and system dynamics, all novelties for this field of research. An important, less studied aspect is that of the dynamics of vulnerability. Many of these once-novel methods now applied in compound hazard research have the potential to improve modelling capabilities of other compound risk aspects, such as vulnerability dynamics. This talk will highlight recent developments in assessing the complexities of disaster risk and discuss potential opportunities to further advance our modelling capabilities through multidisciplinary exchanges.

How to cite: de Ruiter, M.: The challenges of risk dynamics and how to assess them, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1243, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1243, 2023.

09:55–10:05
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EGU23-3746
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Joshua Wodak

In light of the hysteresis and acceleration of the climate crisis, climate overshoot has only recently been acknowledged as inevitable. As the IPCC belatedly reports, current pledges are not even remotely on track to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (Anderson 2015, IPCC 2018). Further, no amount of future emissions reductions can suffice to avert climate overshoot. Hence, this presentation critically analyses the proposition that a climate change technofix – namely Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) – is the only potentially efficacious means to avert runaway climate change (Carton 2020, Reynolds 2015).

However, not only is the efficacy of NETs to reduce sufficient greenhouse gas concentrations highly dubious, but any such technofix requires gambling on a host of unknown unknowns – namely, the inexorable complexity of the Earth System, coupled with planetary-scale interventions in the crisis. Therein, this presentation explores the linkages between extreme climate and societal dynamics surrounding risk, offering a theoretical study from the fields of social sciences and humanities as to the non-linearity of cascades and feedbacks between the biosphere and society.

To do so, I put forth a critique of how normative ethics remains anchored in rigid positions of anachronistic risk aversion, given how any attempted climate technofix entails unprecedented realms of risk and uncertainty. Using the frameworks of the Environmental Humanities, and Science & Technology Studies, I critically engage with the risk ethics of imminent climate overshoot, in relation to the interventionist gambles proposed by NETs through Synthetic Biology and Climate Engineering. Given the scale of the unknown unknowns unleashed by the Anthropocene, I present gambling as the most apt analogy for both the absurdity (and denied imminence) of the existential predicament, as well as the sheer improbability that any technofix can be invented in a sufficiently short time and implemented on a sufficiently large scale.

Given the profound social, cultural and ethical dimensions that this entails, discussion will include an overview of outreach activities I have undertaken as a Chief Investigator at the Australian Research Council Centre for Excellence in Synthetic Biology, including the At Risk in the Climate Crisis symposium and podcast series that I co-produced in 2021-22. Overall, in the context of the rapidly diminishing prospect for any efficacious environmental action, the presentation contemplates the unthinkable questions that our current situation demands we ask, and perhaps even try to answer.

How to cite: Wodak, J.: The Non-Linearity of Cascades and Feedbacks Between The Biosphere and Society: Risk Ethics for a Climate Change Technofix, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3746, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3746, 2023.

10:05–10:15
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EGU23-17529
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Simron Singh

Small island states and jurisdictions face enormous sustainability challenges such as isolation from global markets, tenuous resource availability, heavy reliance on imports to meet basic needs, coastal squeeze, and reduced waste absorption capacity. At the same time, the adverse effects of global environmental change such as global warming, extreme events, and outbreaks of pandemics significantly hinder island economies’ progress towards sustainability, and consistently rank them high on various vulnerability indices. This talk introduces the concept of socio-metabolic risk, defined as systemic risk associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the (in)equitable distribution of derived products and societal services in a socio-ecological system. Drawing on years of socio-metabolic research on islands, I will argue that specific configurations and combinations of material stocks and flows and their ‘resistance to change’ contribute to the system’s proliferation of socio-metabolic risk (SMR). For better or for worse, these influence the system’s ability to consistently and effectively deliver societal services necessary for human survival. Governing SMR would mean governing socio-metabolic flows, and easing resource requirements through green(-blue) infrastructure and nature-based solutions (NBS) to provide crucial societal services. Such interventions will need strategies to reconfigure resource-use patterns and associated services that are sustainable as well as socially equitable.

How to cite: Singh, S.: Socio-metabolic Risks and Tipping Points on Islands, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17529, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17529, 2023.

Coffee break
Chairpersons: Simron Singh, Elisie Kåresdotter
10:45–10:50
10:50–11:00
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EGU23-1871
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Florian Ulrich Jehn, Farrah Jasmine Dingal, Aron Mill, Ekaterina Ilin, Cheryl Harrison, Michael Y. Roleda, and David Denkenberger

Abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios such as a nuclear winter, an asteroid impact or an eruption of a supervolcano would decimate agriculture as it is practised today. We therefore need resilient food sources for such an event. One promising candidate is seaweed, as it can grow quickly in a wide range of environmental conditions. To explore the feasibility of seaweed in a nuclear winter, we simulate the growth of seaweed on a global scale using an empirical model based on Gracilaria tikvahiae forced by nuclear winter climate simulations. We assess how quickly global seaweed production could be scaled to provide a significant fraction of global food demand. We find seaweed can be grown in tropical oceans, even in nuclear winter. The simulated growth is high enough to allow a scale up to an equivalent of 70 % of the global human caloric demand, while only using a small fraction of the global ocean area. The results also show that the growth of seaweed increases with the severity of the nuclear war, as more nutrients become available due to upwelling. This means that seaweed has the potential to be a viable resilient food source for abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios. 

How to cite: Jehn, F. U., Dingal, F. J., Mill, A., Ilin, E., Harrison, C., Roleda, M. Y., and Denkenberger, D.: Seaweed as a resilient food solution in nuclear winter, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1871, 2023.

11:00–11:10
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EGU23-17016
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Lauren Porter, Franziska Bucka, Maha Deeb, Natalie Paez-Curtidor, Monika Egerer, and Ingrid Kögel-Knabner

As the global water cycle intensifies – with it’s increased variability projected to cause greater storm-events, more extensive flooding and more severe droughts – the obsolescence of current urban infrastructure is made clear, particularly in the face of an ever increasing urban population. To combat these challenges, concepts have been developed across the globe in order to better manage and utilize stormwater run-off; many leaning on the larger concept of green infrastructure, implementing solutions replicative of a more natural water cycle. The simplistic design, low capital costs and flexible application and incorporation into urban spaces has made bio-infiltration swales an excellent choice for urban planners and a center point of recent research. As the base of these systems, the soil substrate lends significantly to a swale’s services of dewatering, pollutant processing, biodiversity promotion and carbon accumulation. By combining urban mineral and organic wastes, we attempt to optimize the synergies between these services. In a microcosm incubation experiment, an extracted deep soil horizon was mixed with green waste compost to form a fertile constructed Technosol. Subsequently, biochars of varying feedstock and pyrolysis processing temperatures were added individually and in combination to determine their impact on water processing properties and nutrient availability. We hypothesized the combinations of biochars will create a structure that maximizes water-substrate interactions while also retaining a larger variety of pollutants due to their differences in chemical composition. The addition of biochar will also minimize run-off of nutrients introduced by the green waste compost, increasing their availability to potential vegetation.

How to cite: Porter, L., Bucka, F., Deeb, M., Paez-Curtidor, N., Egerer, M., and Kögel-Knabner, I.: Constructing multi-functional Technosols for storm-water management: mixing high-carbon organic amendments, a microcosm experiment, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17016, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17016, 2023.

11:10–11:20
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EGU23-7906
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Andrea Staccione, Arthur Hrast Essenfelder, Stefano Bagli, and Jaroslav Mysiak

Rethinking cities in a more sustainable and integrated way is a key opportunity for successful climate change adaptation and mitigation. Nature-based solutions and green infrastructures can help to safeguard urban nature and biodiversity while providing multiple benefits to reduce climate risks and improving human well-being. Nature-based solutions help to mitigate flood risk by regulating storm-water runoff and peak-flow. This paper investigates the effects of nature-based solutions and green infrastructure networks on pluvial flood risk in Milan metropolitan area in terms of direct economic damage to buildings and population exposed. Results show that extended urban green networks can reduce pluvial flood damages (by up to 60%) and the population exposed (up to 50%). For all analysed rainfall intensities, damages to buildings and share of population exposed decrease as green area coverage increases, with slightly higher risk reduction for lower-intensity events. 25% of additional urban green coverage can halve the expected annual damage and reduce by 40% the expected annual population exposed. The applied methodological framework makes it possible to identify priority-action urban areas and hence inform decision-making processes as for where green solutions are most efficient.

How to cite: Staccione, A., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Bagli, S., and Mysiak, J.: Connected urban green spaces for pluvial flood risk reduction in the Metropolitan area of Milan, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-7906, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-7906, 2023.

11:20–11:30
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EGU23-137
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Osheen Mehta, Mitthan Lal Kansal, and Deepak Singh Bisht

High urbanization rate and climate change are the main drivers of urban floods in developing countries. The increase in urban flooding incidents has become a significant threat to cities, which also result into considerable losses of life and the economy. Adapting to the risks of a changing climate and ill-effects of urbanization is imperative for national and local governments. This calls for a functionally and structurally resilient urban drainage infrastructure. Functional resilience is the coping capacity of system against external threats such as urbanization and climate change, whereas structural resilience is the resilience against internal failures such as blockage of inlets or sewers, structural damage of a pipe, bed load sediment deposition, asset aging/decay, and sewer collapse. This work aims to understand the impact of nature-based solutions on urban drainage resilience. Various researchers have identified Low Impact development (LID) practices as a potential solution to enhance drainage systems' resilience. LID can be defined as a land development and retrofit strategy that emphasizes the protection and use of distributed interventions to reduce the volume and rate of stormwater runoff from a developed landscape. In the present study, the green roofs and rain gardens are simulated in a part of Gurugram city of India using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) 5.2. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to overcome the problem of a lack of in-depth data to perform model calibration and validation. The simulations were carried out by developing various scenarios for functional and structural resilience assessment. The results indicate that if 25% of potential subcatchments are deployed with LIDs, functional resiliency of the system enhances by 25%, and structural resilience of vulnerable nodes decreases by 17%.  The study reveals that introduction of LIDs aids into enhancing the functional resilience of the system rather than structural resilience. This research provides evidence of LIDs' positive influence on the resilience performance of drainage systems. Overall, the study can help urban planners and drainage management engineers to develop understanding on LIDs role vis-à-vis city's resilience to urban flood problems.

How to cite: Mehta, O., Kansal, M. L., and Bisht, D. S.: Integrating Green and Grey Infrastructure for Resilience Enhancement of Conventional Urban Drainage System and its Evaluation through Modeling, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-137, 2023.

11:30–11:40
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EGU23-6712
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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Virtual presentation
Oscar Higuera Roa, Davide Cotti, Natalia Aste, Alicia Bustillos-Ardaya, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Ignacio Tourino-Soto, Francisco Roman-Dañobeytia, and Yvonne Walz

Emergent dynamic climate risks challenge conventional approaches for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This situation demands new ways of addressing climate risks with integrated solutions. However, little attention has been paid to exploring methodological approaches for combining adaptation measures to reduce climate risks. Still, selecting the appropriate and effective combination of adaptation measures is a challenging task. This research results in a geospatial multi-criteria approach for developing ecosystem-based adaptation packages to face climate change effects and applies this innovative methodology to a case study area in the Puna region in Peru. We started with an in-depth literature analysis combined with a participatory process with local experts to identify and select locally valid adaptation measures for the specific context of the case study area. Building upon that, we developed the overall multi-criteria approach consisting of a matrix-based procedure to evaluate the applicability of relevant adaptation measures and their feasibility of being combined in adaptation packages. We then integrated the multi-criteria analysis into a Geographic Information System using a spatial analysis model to map suitable intervention areas. Next to the methodological innovation, we applied this multi-criteria approach in the case study area to generate a place-based adaptation package for addressing the risk of reduced water provision, with its respective potential intervention sites differentiated by adaptation measure. This methodological approach is novel and considered an affordable support tool that helps practitioners design more robust and effective adaptative interventions. Furthermore, this methodological approach involves shifting the perspective from activities focused on "single adaptations" to "multi-solution" strategic interventions that address climate risks more comprehensively, recognizing the dynamics and complexities of the social-ecological systems. We encourage researchers and practitioners to transfer the methodological approach to other contexts and, with that, accelerate the efficient and targeted implementation of nature-based solutions for climate resilience.

How to cite: Higuera Roa, O., Cotti, D., Aste, N., Bustillos-Ardaya, A., Schneiderbauer, S., Tourino-Soto, I., Roman-Dañobeytia, F., and Walz, Y.: Deriving targeted intervention packages for ecosystem-based adaptation: A geospatial multi-criteria approach for building climate resilience in the Puna region, Peru., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-6712, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-6712, 2023.

11:40–11:50
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EGU23-5754
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
Anders Solheim, Didier Vergès, Santiago Fabregas, Laurent Lespine, Carles Räimät, Eva Garcia, Amy Oen, Bjørn Kalsnes, and Vittoria Capobianco

The H2020 project PHUSICOS designs and implements NBS for DRR at demonstrator case sites in rural areas of Norway, Italy, and in the French and Spanish Pyrenees. This presentation covers four locations in the Pyrenees, where NBS to reduce risk from snow avalanches, rockfall and debris flows are implemented. Snow avalanches from the steep slopes of the Capet Forest threaten the French village of Barèges. The NBS here consist of afforestation in the release areas. 5000 trees have been planted in groups of 30-50, protected behind wooden tripods, which also act as protection structures until the trees are large enough to stabilize the snowpack. Rockfall poses a severe hazard at two locations along the important road A-136 / RD-934 between France and Spain. At St. Elena, Spain, the rocks are released by erosion of a slope in a thick till deposit. The implemented NBS consists of vegetated terraces, built up by a dry masonry wall and gabions constructed from wood and filled with the local till. At the location in Artouste, France, rockfalls in the steep slope are released from exposed ledges and from loose blocks in the till surface. The measures here consist of wooden stabilising and retaining structures for each individual ledge or block. These solutions are also tested at newly established laboratory and full-scale test facilities in Spain and France, respectively. The fourth location is near the Spanish village Erill-la-Vall, where debris flows from a >50m thick till deposit pose the threat. Several gullies feed the main debris flow path towards the village during periods of extreme precipitation. The implemented solution is a series of terraces, built up by local rocks and whole-log gabions in the lower parts of the gullies. These will prevent deepening of the erosional base and form increased rugosity in the debris flow paths. The site has been monitored during the last 15 years. In-situ borehole (piezometer) data shows two processes: a deep-seated (15-20 m) failure level, which reacts up to two weeks after a period of heavy rain, and shallow erosion, which reacts almost immediately as a direct response to heavy precipitation. The implemented NBS are primarily to mitigate against the latter process.

The NBS described here all have large upscaling potential, as there are numerous locations in the Pyrenees and elsewhere with similar problems. Terracing and afforestation for slope stabilization is not a new concept but is here re-vitalized in cooperation with stakeholders through Living-Lab processes. These processes have also helped overcoming challenges related to land ownership issues and permissions to operate, e.g., in national parks, which have caused implementation delays. Monitoring of the implemented measures, focused on both the resilience aspect and, not the least, the NBS' co-benefits will be important for building up an evidence-base for the functionality of NBS for DRR.

How to cite: Solheim, A., Vergès, D., Fabregas, S., Lespine, L., Räimät, C., Garcia, E., Oen, A., Kalsnes, B., and Capobianco, V.: NBS implemented in the Pyrenees during the PHUSICOS project, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5754, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5754, 2023.

11:50–12:00
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EGU23-8181
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
|
On-site presentation
|
Christine Moos, Alessandra Bottero, Ana Stritih, and Michaela Teich

Forests in mountain regions provide an indispensable ecosystem service by protecting people and infrastructure against natural hazards. Thanks to this Nature-based Solution (NbS), costs of engineered technical protection measures can be reduced or even avoided. Numerous studies have proven the high effectiveness of forests in mitigating the negative impacts of natural hazards. However, open questions remain about the long-term and sustainable provision of protective service by mountain forests, which are expected to be increasingly affected by global change. Natural forest dynamics and disturbances can result in temporary or irreversible loss of protective effects of forests, potentially accelerated by climate change. At the same time, rising temperatures and more frequent and severe droughts will lead to shifts in tree species distribution and forest composition, which may in turn impact their protective effect depending on the type of natural hazard. Furthermore, socio-economic changes, such as land-use change or the expansion of settlements, may affect the protective function of forests. The uncertainties related to these changes pose great challenges for the quantification and sustainable management of this key ecosystem service in mountain areas. To improve our understanding of the various effects global change has on protective forests, we summarized current knowledge based on a quantitative review. We conducted a systematic literature search using predefined terms in different databases. We focused on forests in mountain regions protecting against gravitational hazards (i.e., snow avalanches, landslides, rockfall, torrential floods and debris flow). This resulted in 70 peer-reviewed articles, books or book chapters that we systematically assessed. Most studies focused on anthropogenic forest change (i.e., management, de-/afforestation), followed by natural disturbances, whereas climatically induced changes (e.g., clearly linked to drought or rising temperatures) were less often addressed in the literature. The analyzed studies mainly examined the protection against floods, followed by avalanches, landslides and rockfall. Preliminary results indicate that global change had a predominantly negative impact on the protective effect of forests in mountain areas. In a next step, the types of impacts and potential interacting and compound effects will be analyzed in more detail.

How to cite: Moos, C., Bottero, A., Stritih, A., and Teich, M.: Impact of global change on the protective effect of forests in mountain areas, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-8181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8181, 2023.

12:00–12:10
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EGU23-9392
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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On-site presentation
JoAnne Bayer, Valentina Bacciu, Eduard Plana, Luis Sousa, Swenja Surminski, and teresa Deubelli-Hwang

A consensus is emerging that restoring the fire-adapted forest ecology through nature-based solutions (NBS), such as prioritizing fire-resistant vegetation, promoting less fire-prone forests, enabling grazing by herbivores in areas facing land abandonment, prescribed burns, and restricted or risk-adapted development in wildlands, can reduce the risk of extreme wildfires. This paradigm shift away from fire suppression towards a fire loss-prevention strategy is urgently needed. The question is whether risk financing strategies, especially insurance, can untap the potential for promoting NBS, for example, by providing protection in case of damages from livestock grazing or prescribed burns, or by giving discounts to forest owners and homeowners that pursue ecological fire-prevention measures. Additionally, insurers can provide (parametric) policies that repair ecological damage, for example, for coral reefs after extreme storms, or policies that transfer the construction or liability risk of NBS. Since wildfire mitigation is to a large extent collective, another potential policy option to support NBS is community-based insurance strategies. This presentation will explore the opportunities and constraints for public and private insurers to support NBS for wildfire risk management. It reflects on-going research in three recently funded Horizon Europe projects: (Cross sector dialogue for wildfire risk management (FireLogue), Building a safe haven for climate extremes (The HuT), and Nature for insurance and insurance for nature (NATURANCE).

How to cite: Bayer, J., Bacciu, V., Plana, E., Sousa, L., Surminski, S., and Deubelli-Hwang, T.: Nature-based solutions for wildfire risk management: the role of insurance, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9392, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9392, 2023.

12:10–12:20
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EGU23-9646
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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Virtual presentation
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Marta Vicarelli, Karen Sudmeier-Rieux, Ali Alsadadi, Michael Kang, Madeline Leue, Simon Schütze, Aryen Shrestha, Ella Steciuk, David Wasielewski, Jaroslav Mysiak, Shannon McAndrew, Michael Marr, and Miranda Vance

Ecosystems and ecosystem services may contribute to reduction in disaster risk, sustainable development and climate change adaptation. The potential of Nature-based Solutions (NbS) is now recognized by major national policies and international framework agreements. However, to date there is limited scientific evidence about their economic viability and equity impacts. In this study we developed a global database of 406 observations from 87 peer-reviewed studies published between 2000 and 2020, completing economic evaluations of NbS for Ecosystem-based Climate Adaptation (EbA) and Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction (Eco-DRR). We examine available scientific knowledge on the economic viability and performance of NbS for Eco-DRR and EbA, both in terms of efficiency and equity. More than 40% of the studies analyze the role of coastal ecosystems, coral reefs, wetlands, and mangroves in attenuating disaster risk, with a special focus on floods, storms and erosion. Abundant are also studies examining forest ecosystems (30%), followed by urban (25%) and riparian ecosystems (23%). A smaller number of studies analyzes agro-ecosystems. The number of studies per region suggests that Europe, Asia, and North America are the regions where most Eco-DRR research was undertaken. Based on our results, 71% of studies found that the ecosystems studied were effective NbS in mitigating hazards. 24% of studies found that the ecosystems were occasionally effective in mitigating hazards. None of the studies found NbS ineffective in mitigating hazards. The ecosystems most frequently effective in mitigating hazards included mangroves (80%), forests (77%), and coastal ecosystems (73%). A subset of studies compared the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of NbS and engineering-based solutions in mitigating certain hazards (39%). Among these studies, 65% found that NbS are always more effective in attenuating hazards compared to engineering-based solutions, and 26% found that NbS are partially more effective. No study found that NbS are less effective than engineering-based solutions. 

How to cite: Vicarelli, M., Sudmeier-Rieux, K., Alsadadi, A., Kang, M., Leue, M., Schütze, S., Shrestha, A., Steciuk, E., Wasielewski, D., Mysiak, J., McAndrew, S., Marr, M., and Vance, M.: Economic benefits of ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation: a global review, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-9646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-9646, 2023.

12:20–12:30
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EGU23-4599
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
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On-site presentation
Tessa Maurer, Kimberly Seipp, Micah Elias, and Phil Saksa

Sitting at the intersection of knowledge production and project implementation, our work as conservation finance project developers leverages economic and other benefits of environmental restoration to attract new and diverse funding sources for nature-based solutions (NBS). Our work supports project activities ranging from variable density thinning and prescribed burning to low-tech and process-based riparian restoration. In our experience, NBS presents a powerful, cost-effective opportunity to create scaled improvements in ecosystem function. However, funding NBS projects can be challenging, as some NBS outcomes are only achieved through large-scale landscape restoration, which is expensive, or are realized gradually over a period of time following restoration activities. Conservation finance is one tool that can catalyze meaningful NBS work at scale by providing the necessary upfront capital for projects while contracting funding commitments based on outcomes over time. Using several examples of successful NBS projects, we present a process-based, multiple-benefit framework to demonstrate how NBS can be leveraged to increase funds and enable financing. This framework is grounded in western U.S. forest management to address catastrophic wildfire, but can be applied in other regions and for other types of restoration activities. This approach addresses the logistical, governance, and sociocultural challenges we have encountered to leveraging NBS within a conservation finance framework. We also propose future avenues of research to help increase investment based on NBS. These include formalizing metrics for measuring and monitoring of different NBS activities, managing the uncertainty and expectations around outcomes of NBS projects, and incorporating the future impacts of climate change into NBS models and planning. By describing this work in a U.S. context, we hope to catalyze a discussion about how the needs and opportunities identified in our projects can inform work in Europe and vice versa.

How to cite: Maurer, T., Seipp, K., Elias, M., and Saksa, P.: A multiple-benefit framework for implementing nature-based solutions using conservation finance, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4599, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4599, 2023.

Posters on site: Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | Hall X3

Chairpersons: Simron Singh, Markus Reichstein
X3.79
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EGU23-17315
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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Alexandre Pereira Santos, Miguel Rodriguez Lopez, and Jürgen Scheffran

Global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic do not affect cities uniformly. These crises converge in urban areas and often interact through their primary and secondary impacts with the vulnerability of urban populations. This paper investigates urban development dynamics and socio-environmental vulnerability in a megalopolis in the Global South, São Paulo (Brasil). Our goal is to assess the connections between urbanisation and risk exposure, a gap in vulnerability research when considering climate and health hazards. We implement an innovative mixed methods research design using thematic, hot spots, and survival analysis techniques. Two focus groups at the central and peripheral regions of the city provide qualitative data, while open data sets and COVID-19 case microdata (n= 1,948,601) support the quantitative methods. We find a complex system of relationships between urbanisation and risk exposure. Socioeconomic vulnerability characteristics of the population do not explain exposure entirely but significantly contribute to risk-prone location choices. Additionally, social vulnerability factors such as low income and social segregation are highly concentrated in São Paulo, coinciding with substantial COVID-19 fatality rates during 25 months of the pandemic. Finally, qualitative analysis helps us overcome the limitations of quantitative methods on the intraurban scale, indicating contrasting experiences of resilience and resistance during the health crisis. While the low-income group faced mental health and food security issues, the upper-middle-income sample took advantage of opportunities arising during the pandemic to improve work and well-being. We argue that these results demonstrate potential synergies for climate adaptation and health policies in combating socio-environmental vulnerability at the community scale. Environmental justice is thus paramount for global development agendas such as the Sustainable Development Goals, Sendai Framework, and the Paris Agreement.

How to cite: Pereira Santos, A., Lopez, M. R., and Scheffran, J.: Connecting COVID-19 and climate change in the anthropocene: evidence from urban vulnerability in São Paulo, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-17315, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-17315, 2023.

X3.80
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EGU23-12053
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
Ekaterina Bogdanovich, Alexander Brenning, Lars Guenther, Markus Reichstein, Dorothea Frank, Mike S. Schäfer, Georg Ruhrmann, and René Orth

The frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves are expected to increase in the coming decades. This could lead to elevated heat stress and consequently an increase in excess mortality, caused by hyperthermia, dehydration, respiratory disease, cerebrovascular disease, or heat stroke. Public awareness of such impacts is key to mitigate heat-related consequences of hot temperatures. For example, the sentiment of heat-related media coverage can affect the perceived risk and the motivation of people to implement risk mitigation such as avoiding outside activities and ensuring sufficient water intake.  

In this study, we analyze the sentiment of temperature-related newspaper reports from multiple countries in an automated way. In particular, we investigate (i) how newspapers in different countries respond to hot temperatures in terms of the number of on-topic articles and their sentiment, and (ii) to what extent socioeconomic and climatic characteristics can explain differences between countries.
For this purpose, we employ data on minimum, mean, maximum, and apparent temperature from the ERA5 reanalysis. We obtain country-specific relationships between the sentiment of temperature-related newspaper articles and the respective temperatures. We hypothesize that these relationships differ, for example, between cold and warm countries, and that heat waves are generally perceived more positively in cold regions.

In summary, this work reveals the links between the sentiment of newspaper articles and hot temperatures across countries. Linking these results with observed heat-related health impacts can guide public health agencies, newspapers, and journalists in particular to ensure public awareness of the detrimental impacts of heat waves, which are expected to further aggravate in a warming world.

How to cite: Bogdanovich, E., Brenning, A., Guenther, L., Reichstein, M., Frank, D., Schäfer, M. S., Ruhrmann, G., and Orth, R.: Nice weather or burning heat? Sentiment analysis of temperature-related media reports., EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-12053, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12053, 2023.

X3.81
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EGU23-2659
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
Banzragch Nandintsetseg, Jinfeng Chang, and Omer L. Sen

Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Eurasian rangelands (EAR), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyles. Climate hazards are expected to become more frequent and intense, leading to the most significant risk to pastoralists and impacting their future sustainability. There is an urgent need for research-based interventions that can help herder communities adapt to future risks. However, rigorous impact assessments of climate change on pastoralism-based livelihoods considering region-specific socioeconomic changes in the Eurasian Drylands are relatively neglected research areas with limited knowledge. Thus, we assess the climate change risk to rangelands in Eurasia under regional grazing patterns and intensity across EAR spatial domain (34−56◦ N, 20−130◦ E: West Asia, Central Asia and East Asia) during 1971–2100. We conducted a grid-scale (0.5 °× 0.5°) probabilistic risk assessment of EAR in the context of climate change based on probability theory. Risk is quantified as the product of the probability of a hazardous drought and vulnerability of the ecosystem. The probability of hazardous drought is defined by the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability is defined as the expected difference in key ecosystem variables between years with and without hazardous conditions. The ecosystem variables were productivity (aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, soil carbon, and leaf area index) and plant-available soil moisture in the root zone, simulated with a process-based ecosystem model ORCHIDEE-GM (Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management) validated with field observations of biomass and soil moisture. Climate data were based on gridded observations and projections of CMIP6 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) using scenarios ssp1-2.6, ssp3-7.0, and ssp5-8.5. Historical land-use data were based on the number of province-based livestock during 1971–2019. The constant value of 2019 is used to simulate the future impact of grazing on EAR. The results revealed that EAR experienced more frequent hazardous droughts with rapid warming and slight drying during 1971−2020, aggravated by increasing grazing intensity, which resulted in a reduction in soil water availability and grassland productivity, particularly in northeastern areas. In the future, climate change will lead to increased droughts in the EAR under these three scenarios. These great drought hazards increase the risk of rangeland productivity in the EAR, particularly in the western and southern parts of Central and Eastern Asia.

How to cite: Nandintsetseg, B., Chang, J., and Sen, O. L.: Sustainability of Pastoralism: Climate Change Risk to Rangelands in Eurasia, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-2659, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-2659, 2023.

X3.82
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EGU23-569
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
Miguel Rodrigues, Luís Filipe Antunes Dias, and João Pedro Carvalho Nunes

The increasingly frequent impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean region challenge the resilience and sustainability of the region's agroecosystems. In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) emerge as a sustainable strategy to address climate change adaptation and mitigation. Extensive literature focuses on the analysis of NbS to address this problem, although no analysis discriminates against the individual and combined effect of NbS in agroecosystems. In this work, we capitalize on state-of-the-art results and present a random-effects meta-analysis of NbS. Our analysis focuses on a cohort of 80 NbS for agricultural land management, such as conservation tillage practices, soil-improving cropping systems, organic amendments and fertilizers, and landscape solutions. We used response ratios as effect sizes to determine the most suitable NbS for improving soil health. We built a database with field-scale data from 70 published case studies comparing NbS and conventional agricultural management practices in agroecosystems in 12 countries with a Mediterranean climate. Our analysis results from a literature selection of 988 scientific articles published from 2019 to 2022. We have analyzed the combined effect that NbS have on soil's ability to retain water, organic matter, and carbon and to reduce soil loss. To further understand the influence of abiotic factors, we also analyze the impact of precipitation, soil texture, and irrigation systems on the effects of NbS. These results shall contribute to leveraging climate change adaptation in Mediterranean agroecosystems, addressing land and water-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

How to cite: Rodrigues, M., Antunes Dias, L. F., and Carvalho Nunes, J. P.: The positive effect of Nature-based Solutions for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals in Mediterranean agroecosystems: a meta-analysis , EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-569, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-569, 2023.

X3.83
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EGU23-1521
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
Jose Antonio Sillero-Medina and Jose Damián Ruiz-Sinoga

In Mediterranean areas, rainfall is one of the main variables affecting the control of eco-geomorphological processes. Water erosion processes, sealing and degradation of soils, reduction of the amount of water available for vegetation, modification of hydrological regimes can be cited among the most remarkable. Thus, the modifications in climatic variables resulting from Global Change are having an impact on the Mediterranean eco-geomorphological system, especially issues associated with water risks. Specifically, a dual pattern can be observed: on the one hand, a notable increase in the recurrence of the number of torrential events and an increase in the risk of water erosion, and on the other hand, an increase in the intensity or frequency of droughts, determining productivity and ecological and economic values due to the reduction in the availability of water in the soil. In this context, the research has focused on a traditionally agricultural territory that is highly fragile to these processes, namely GIAHS (Globally Important Agricultural Heritage Systems) dedicated to the raisin production in the Axarquia (Malaga, Spain). The main objective has been to (i) assess the impact of the most important water risks and (ii) identify the main Nature-based Solutions (NbS) implemented as adaptive mechanisms that have been implemented to ensure food security and the sustainability of these areas. To achieve these objectives, the rainfall dynamics have been statistically analysed with the data downloaded from nine meteorological stations of the SAIH Hidrosur Network located in the region (1997-2021). In addition, a total of 60 soil samples have been collected and analysed for the estimation of soil water erosion rates, based on the RUSLE model, and for the evaluation of its hydrological dynamics in recent decades. Finally, the NbS identified in the study area have been qualitatively assessed and analysed from an ecosystemic and agricultural approach. The results show an increased water stress in this GIAHS area according to the projections published by the latest IPCC report for the Mediterranean region. A slight tendency to concentration and increased rainfall erosivity is detected, as well as a lower water availability in soil for crop phenology. Similarly, soil erosion rates show very high values, with slopes exceeding 250 t ha-1 year-1) However, agricultural practices and the different structures identified have been determinant in the control of these natural risks, being considered as sustainable adaptation strategies and conforming as NbS.

How to cite: Sillero-Medina, J. A. and Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D.: Nature-based solutions to address water threats in the Mediterranean region. A characterisation of the GIAHS area of Axarquia (Málaga, Spain), EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-1521, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-1521, 2023.

X3.84
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EGU23-3140
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
Mark Bryan Alivio and Nejc Bezak

As a vital element of public spaces, trees in urban settings are acclaimed to offer numerous social and environmental benefits, making them a quintessential nature-based solution for a more sustainable city. While carbon sequestration, air quality, and urban heat island mitigation benefits have long been acknowledged, less emphasis is directed to utilizing the hydrologic function of trees in terms of stormwater runoff reduction in the urban environment and this benefit is often underutilized. For urban areas with high proportions of impervious surfaces, increasing the percentage of tree canopy cover and green spaces is crucial in restoring the natural functioning of the ecosystem and water cycle. Within the framework of our ongoing research, we are investigating the positive impacts of trees (i.e., single tree elements, forests) as nature-based solutions on the urban water cycle using field measurements of rainfall partitioning, runoff, soil moisture, and infiltration from experimental catchments in the city of Ljubljana, Slovenia which started on August of 2021. Preliminary results revealed that open-grown birch (deciduous) and pine (coniferous) tree canopies intercepted a relative amount of gross rainfall with pine trees having a greater interception capacity. The following trees also modified the drop size distribution (e.g., drop number, diameter, fall velocity) of below-canopy rainfall before reaching the ground, thus attenuating the mean and maximum 10-minute rainfall intensities by 42-50% and 40-44%, respectively, depending on canopy phenoseasons. Such reduction in the intensity of rainfall has a significant effect on the peak water level of event runoff which could provide important information for understanding the runoff generation process. Moreover, this benefit with the root system of trees has a positive impact on the condition and structure of soils in urban areas promoting infiltration, preferential flow, and soil water recharge. In addition to this, tree canopies also dampen the average kinetic energies of rainfall to cause soil erosion by 34%. These initial findings suggest that the hydrological benefits of trees in the urban environment are adequate to warrant a further investigation into their potential to regulate the flow mechanisms of stormwater runoff and reduce urban pluvial flooding. Thus, it is also imperative to explore how the integration of trees interacts with other stormwater control measures and how this interaction could leverage their functions. This will deliver invaluable information to urban planners, landscape designers, stormwater management experts, and decision-makers on the need to expand the efforts of urban greening to address the associated adverse impacts of rapid urbanization and various environmental challenges.

 

Acknowledgments: Results are part of the CELSA project entitled “Interception experimentation and modelling for enhanced impact analysis of nature-based solution” and research programmes and projects P2-0180, J6-4629, and N2-0313 financed by the Slovenian Research Agency (ARRS).

How to cite: Alivio, M. B. and Bezak, N.: Role of trees as part of the nature-based solutions in cities and their effects on stormwater runoff generation, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-3140, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-3140, 2023.

X3.85
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EGU23-934
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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Highlight
Nejc Bezak, Mojca Šraj, Pavel Raška, Lenka Slavikova, and Jiri Jakubínský

Climate change is expected to affect the frequency, magnitude, and seasonality of several rainfall-related hazards, including flooding as one of the costliest hazards in Europe. Recent studies have shown that flood risk in Europe is both increasing and decreasing, with increases in most eastern and southern European countries, including Slovenia and Czechia. In addition, significant changes in the seasonal occurrence of floods have also been observed in Europe, thus challenging conventional approaches to flood risk management.

As natural hazards have major impacts on infrastructure, human lives, and habitats, and cause large social and economic damages, it is clear that adaptation measures aimed at both prevention and mitigation of impacts must be considered to cope with climate change. To deal with the changing occurrence and characteristics of floods, different types of measures need to be adopted, including green, blue, and grey measures or combinations of these. Although their application is currently emphasized, purely green or blue-green measures in some cases may not be insufficient to cope with predicted future climate hazards. Additionally, implementation of such measures often encounter resistance in planning departments and among decision makers due to institutional path dependency related to the history of utilizing grey infrastructure measures. This is especially the case for some Central-Eastern European countries. An alternative are hybrid solutions that combine parts of grey and green infrastructure, since these kinds of measures can reflect the variety of environmental conditions. However, not much attention has been given to the documentation and evaluation of hybrid infrastructure in comparison to purely green measures. Hence, there are still several open questions related to the implementation and functioning of solutions combining elements of green and grey measures, so called hybrid solutions.

The main objective of this contribution is to present the theoretical framework, research design and initial research steps of a newly launched international project focusing on: (i) enhancement of documentation and standardization related to hybrid solutions, (ii) development and testing of applicability and social acceptability of specific hybrid infrastructure in different environments and climate change scenarios, and (iii) environmental modelling and evaluation of effectiveness of different measures from the perspective of the flood risk management. Within the project, the effects of hybrid solutions on flood hazard and hydrological regime of the landscape will be modelled for selected small catchments in Slovenia and Czechia, but the standardization of hybrid solutions will enable to extrapolate our results beyond Central and Eastern Europe.  

Acknowledgment: The research was conducted within the project [Evaluation of hazard-mitigating hybrid infrastructure under climate change scenarios] co-granted by Slovenian Research Agency (J6-4628) and Czech Science Foundation (22-04520L). 

How to cite: Bezak, N., Šraj, M., Raška, P., Slavikova, L., and Jakubínský, J.: Towards implementation of hybrid solutions for flood risk management under climate change, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-934, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-934, 2023.

X3.86
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EGU23-4088
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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ECS
Fuko Nakai, Tatsuya Uchiuzo, Kazuaki Okubo, and Eizo Hideshima

Disaster risk reduction has become an increasingly prominent concern in urban planning due to recent catastrophic disasters such as the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. Building levees or relocating to higher ground are measures used to reduce the risk of tsunamis. However, if those measures are implemented too extensively, they may obstruct views of coastal water that benefit residents. Environments where residents can visually access the waterfront are crucial for promoting awareness of river and disaster risk reduction and repairing the way we interact with nature. However, in Japan, safety has frequently been prioritized by ignoring the views of coastal water that may be lost.

This study developed an optimal residential area model for analysing the trade-offs between safety from tsunamis and views of coastal water (hereafter, ocean views), which will be able to support detailed urban planning. The model comprises weighted multicriteria, that is, the total tsunami risk and ocean views with controlling optimal allocations of population. Here we optimized “Improved Potential Achievement (IPA).” This indicated the extent to which the respective optimal value achieved has been achieved against the value (improved potential) of the two objectives being optimized alone as a baseline. 

We used the viewshed analysis to quantify ocean views. The analysis used the elevation value of each cell of the digital elevation model (DEM) to determine the visibility of a particular point of the ocean from a specific residential mesh. Using the visibility between specific locations, we conceptualized the index of “the ocean view presence” and “the width of the ocean view”. The ocean view presence expresses how many locations in a particular residential mesh have an ocean view. Meanwhile, the width of the ocean view expresses whether people have a panoramic view of the open ocean or whether they can only see a small area of ocean. We quantified ocean views using these indices.

We applied the model to Kuroshio, a tsunami-prone area along the Nankai Trough in Japan and the optimal residential area is calculated for each 500-meter mesh. The results of the sensitivity analysis that changed the weight β (0<β<1) of the safety from tsunami criteria showed trade-offs in which the more safety from tsunami risk is weighted, the more the view of ocean water in the target area is reduced. If weight β is larger than 0.7, ocean views decreases steadily. This is a case study of a specific area and such results are not spatially consistent in all areas. However, similar trade-offs are likely to be obtained in areas with the ocean and mountains in close proximity. This analytical technique is likely to be useful in pre-disaster recovery planning that explores induction-encouraged residential areas that benefit safety from tsunamis and ocean views.

How to cite: Nakai, F., Uchiuzo, T., Okubo, K., and Hideshima, E.: Analysing Trade-Offs between Safety from Tsunamis Risk and Views of Ocean Water Using an Optimal Residential Area Model, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4088, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4088, 2023.

X3.87
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EGU23-5001
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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Baoying Shan, Bernard De Baets, and Niko E.C. Verhoest

Given observed and predicted increases in the frequency and intensity of many climate extremes, researchers have shown an increased interest in the climate extremes and their impacts on ecosystems because of the profound effects. However, most previous studies on the responses of ecosystems to climate extremes focus on droughts and summer heatwaves, and relatively little is known about the effects of other kinds of extremes, such as winter heatwaves, extreme wet periods, and cold waves.

In this study, we identify four types of extremes (two temperature (heatwaves and cold waves) and two precipitation ones (droughts and extreme wet periods)) and present 4 alternatives to identify compound extreme events. We demonstrate the relevance of the different types of year-round (compound) events for ecological studies by demonstrating their impact on the abundance of 34 UK butterfly species across each species' life stages (hibernation, egg, larval, pupal, and adult) over a 45-year period. We chose this example as these species are expected to respond rapidly to climates due to their ectothermic nature and short life cycles.

The results show that considering different types of year-round (compound) extreme events is relevant from an ecological point of view as at different stages, other extremes have more impact on the survival of individuals. For instance, statistics show that heatwaves and droughts during the pupal and adult stages appear beneficial for butterflies in England, with around 30% of univoltine species showing significant positive influences, whereas extreme wet periods during the pupal life stage cause negative population change for 26% of univoltine species. Our study demonstrates that considering different forms of extremes during all seasons of a year may bring interesting new insights for ecologists. However, we did not seek any eco(fysio)logical explanations of the obtained results.

How to cite: Shan, B., De Baets, B., and E.C. Verhoest, N.: Four alternative ways to identify compound climate extremes and their relevance to ecological impacts: a case study of UK butterflies, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-5001, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-5001, 2023.

Posters virtual: Thu, 27 Apr, 16:15–18:00 | vHall SSS

Chairperson: Jana Sillmann
vSSS.1
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EGU23-4262
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ITS3.4/SSS0.1
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Rui Shi and Haozhi Pan

Environmental governance innovation, especially nature-based solutions (NbS), is gaining scholarly attention over the past years due to issues including urban expansion and climate change. Most existing studies of such innovation focus on national, provincial or single city level, while few explore the translocal interactions among urban agglomeration levels. This paper illustrates the process of emergence and adoption of environmental governance innovations in the context of NbS. Furthermore, this paper analyzes the contributing factors of the innovation processes with particular focus on the role of translocal governance networks that involves the center and local governments, urban agglomeration networks and non-governmental actors.

Event history analysis is used to understand the sources and processes of environmental innovation generation and adoption. Environmental innovation event history is established via obtaining policy documents published on government portals across the country and case reports published by mainstream media from 2011 to 2021. Then, we use the pooled regression model to explain the probability of innovation being generated or adopted to analyze the contributing factors of environmental governance innovation in urban agglomeration. Vertical, horizontal, internal and external interactions are measured and used to explain the processes with other explanatory variables including political factors, economic factors, and other socioeconomic covariates. The following results are expected. First, environmental governance innovations mostly originate from external factors, such as breakthrough of environmental technology and global environmental alliances, and are generated from both central and provincial government. Second, the probability of innovation adoption is positively correlated with interactions across and within urban agglomeration, and the frequencies of vertical, internal and external interactions, and significantly negatively correlated with horizontal interaction factors. Third, economic and educational factors are expected to have the most significant influence on the probability of innovation generation; among social factors, population density could be negatively correlated with the probability of innovation generation. The findings of this study can further optimize relationship between local actors and governance structure to promote environmental governance innovation.

How to cite: Shi, R. and Pan, H.: Governance Innovations for Nature-based Solutions from Translocal Networks, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 23–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-4262, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-4262, 2023.